基于地理探测器的甘肃农牧交错带土地利用时空演化及其驱动机制

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.06

Abstract

Abstract:

This study analyzed the land use structure, dynamics, intensity, and land use conversion of the agro-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020 using remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), and Geodetector in combination with social and economic data. (1) From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land, forest land, and grassland were the main land use types in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province, and the total proportion of the three was more than 95%. The difference degree of land use structure was less than 0.01, and the structure was generally stable. The overall land use change initially increased and subsequently slowed down over time. (2) The conversion of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland accounted for more than 96% of the total conversion area in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province. Land use conversion was observed among all land use types. Converted cultivated lands were mainly converted to forest land and grassland, whereas other land use types were converted to construction land. Land use type changes were mainly concentrated in the Loess hills in central Gansu and the Loess Plateau gully region in eastern Gansu. (3) In the context of long term land use changes, Geodetector demonstrated good applicability. The driving factors for land use changes in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Gansu varied during different periods. These changes were driven by a combination of socioeconomic factors and natural geographic factors, with the former having stronger explanatory power for land use change. Interactions among these factors exhibited either two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. Two-factor interactions had stronger explanatory power for land use changes than single-factor explanations.

Key words: agro-pastoral transitional zone, Geodetector, land use, spatio-temporal evolution, driving force, Gansu Province

LI Wenxiu, YAN Zhengang. Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution of land use and its driving mechanism in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province using Geodetector[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(4): 590-602.

Figures/Tables 13

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判据	交互作用
q(x₁∩x₂)<min[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	非线性减弱
min[q(x₁),q(x₂)]<q(x₁∩x₂)<max[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(x₁∩x₂)>max[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	双因子增强
q(x₁∩x₂)=q(x₁)+q(x₂)	独立
q(x₁∩x₂)>q(x₁)+q(x₂)	非线性增强

因素	因子	单位	说明（以2015—2020年为例）
自然地理	高程（x₁）	m	由分辨率为30 m的DEM数据提取
	坡度（x₂）	°	由分辨率为30 m的DEM数据计算
	坡向（x₃）	-	由分辨率为30 m的DEM数据计算
	降水量（x₄）	mm	2020年和2015年年平均降水量的差值
社会经济	人口密度（x₅）	人·hm^-2	2020年和2015年人口密度的差值
	城镇人口比重（x₆）	%	2020年和2015年城镇人口比重的差值
	地区生产总值（x₇）	10⁴元	2020年和2015年地区生产总值的差值
	固定资产投资（x₈）	10⁴元	2020年和2015年固定资产投资的差值
	路网密度（x₉）	km·km^-2	2020年和2015年路网密度的差值

土地利用变化类型	耕地→林地	耕地→草地	耕地→建设用地	林地→草地	草地→耕地	草地→林地	草地→建设用地
2000—2005年	0.11	0.55	0.07	0.07	0.25	0.29	0.01
2005—2010年	0.16	0.76	0.26	0.12	0.64	0.28	0.05
2010—2015年	0.02	0.24	0.15	0.11	0.23	0.11	0.02
2015—2020年	0.06	0.70	0.29	0.27	0.50	0.24	0.21

土地利用类型	土地利用程度等级	土地利用程度指数
土地利用类型	土地利用程度等级	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
耕地	3	75.36	73.85	72.46	71.94	70.62
林地	2	31.51	32.13	32.68	32.65	32.61
草地	2	110.46	110.65	110.32	110.30	110.64
水域	2	1.17	1.19	1.23	1.26	1.28
建设用地	4	4.96	5.26	6.07	6.68	8.25
未利用地	1	2.07	2.08	2.21	2.24	2.13
合计		225.52	225.16	224.98	225.08	225.54

驱动因子	2000—2005年		2005—2010年		2010—2015年		2015—2020年
驱动因子	q值	P值	q值	P值	q值	P值	q值	P值
x₁	0.273	0	0.037	0	0.117	0	0.339	0
x₂	0.033	0	0.037	0	0.026	0.004	0.043	0
x₃	0.003	0.945	0.007	0.541	0.004	0.861	0.009	0.325
x₄	0.226	0	0.266	0	0.177	0	0.316	0
x₅	0.112	0	0.059	0.126	0.292	0	0.087	0
x₆	0.190	0	0.134	0	0.143	0	0.149	0
x₇	0.112	0	0.124	0	0.108	0	0.400	0
x₈	0.355	0	0.363	0	0.291	0	0.174	0
x₉	0.263	0	0.188	0	0.249	0	0.202	0

Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution of land use and its driving mechanism in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Gansu Province using Geodetector

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