基于CMIP6模式的塔里木河流域棉花生产评估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.15

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change significantly affects cotton production. This study assessed the effectiveness of the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton model in simulating cotton production in the Tarim River Basin. Using climate change datasets generated by CMIP6 climate models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and centroid shift patterns of climate characteristics, cotton yield, irrigation water volume, and water productivity from 2021 to 2100. The results indicate that during the cotton-growing season, temperature in the Tarim River Basin is projected to rise by up to 4.9 ℃, whereas precipitation is expected to decrease by an average of 3.4-4.4 mm, and solar radiation is likely to decline by 0.6-0.7 MJ∙m^-2 from 2021 to 2100. The DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton+GIS coupled model reliably simulated cotton yield and irrigation water volume in the Tarim River Basin. Under future scenarios, cotton yield is projected to increase by 12.42%-23.96% relative to historical levels, with irrigation water volume rising by 1.76%-21.82% and water productivity by 0.95%-20.61%. The changes in cotton yield, irrigation water volume, and water productivity under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios exhibit distinct patterns. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, cotton yield is expected to follow an “increase-stagnation” pattern, whereas irrigation water volume is anticipated to “continuously increase,” and water productivity is likely to follow an “increase-decrease” pattern. In contrast, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, cotton yield is projected to follow an “increase-stagnation-decrease” pattern, with irrigation water volume still “continuously increasing,” whereas water productivity is expected to follow an “increase-stagnation-sharp decrease” pattern. Centroid analysis shows that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the centroid of cotton yield is expected to shift northeastward, whereas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, it exhibits a “northeast-southwest” oscillation. The centroid of irrigation water volume is projected to shift northeastward, whereas that of water productivity is likely to shift southwestward in future scenarios.

Key words: climate change, cotton production, CMIP6, DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton+GIS, Tarim River Basin

YUE Shengru, HU Xuefei, HOU Xiaohua, MENG Fujun. Cotton production assessment in the Tarim River Basin based on CMIP6 models[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1925-1938.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 43

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编号	名称	国家	发布年份	空间分辨率（经向×纬向）
1	ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	2019年	1.875°×1.241°
2	BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	2017年	1.125°×1.125°
3	CMCC-ESM2	意大利	2017年	1.25°×0.9375°
4	ESM2-0	中国	2022年	1.875°×1.875°
5	INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯	2016年	2.00°×1.50°
6	INM-CM5-0	俄罗斯	2016年	2.00°×1.50°
7	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	2017年	2.50°×1.26°
8	MPI-ESM1-2-HR	德国	2017年	0.9375°×0.9375°
9	MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	2017年	1.875°×1.875°
10	MRI-ESM2-0	日本	2017年	1.125°×1.125°
11	NESM3	中国	2016年	1.875°×1.875°
12	NorESM2-MM	挪威	2017年	2.50°×2.50°
13	TaiESM1	中国	2018年	1.25°×0.9375°

区站号	站点名称	纬度	经度	海拔/m	区站号	站点名称	纬度	经度	海拔/m
51559	和静	42.32°N	86.40°E	1100.90	51720	柯坪	40.50°N	79.05°E	1161.80
51567	焉耆	42.08°N	86.57°E	1055.30	51722	阿瓦提	40.65°N	80.40°E	1044.30
51568	和硕	42.25°N	86.80°E	1085.40	51730	阿拉尔	40.55°N	81.27°E	1012.20
51627	乌什	41.22°N	79.23°E	1395.80	51765	铁干里克	40.63°N	87.70°E	846.00
51628	阿克苏	41.12°N	80.38°E	1107.10	51777	若羌	39.03°N	88.17°E	887.70
51629	温宿	41.27°N	80.23°E	1133.10	51802	英吉沙	38.93°N	76.17°E	1297.50
51633	拜城	41.78°N	81.90°E	1229.20	51810	麦盖提	38.92°N	77.63°E	1178.20
51636	新和	41.55°N	82.65°E	1009.80	51811	莎车	38.43°N	77.27°E	1231.20
51639	沙雅	41.23°N	82.78°E	980.40	51814	叶城	37.92°N	77.40°E	1360.40
51642	轮台	41.82°N	84.27°E	982.00	51815	泽普	38.20°N	77.27°E	1274.70
51644	库车	41.72°N	82.97°E	1081.90	51818	皮山	37.62°N	78.28°E	1375.40
51655	尉犁	41.35°N	86.27°E	884.90	51826	策勒	37.02°N	80.80°E	1336.50
51656	库尔勒	41.73°N	85.82°E	899.80	51827	墨玉	37.17°N	79.63°E	1348.90
51704	阿图什	39.72°N	76.17°E	1298.70	51828	和田	37.13°N	79.93°E	1375.00
51707	伽师	39.50°N	76.78°E	1204.70	51829	洛浦	37.08°N	80.17°E	1347.90
51708	阿克陶	39.15°N	75.95°E	1325.10	51839	民丰	37.07°N	82.72°E	1409.50
51709	喀什	39.48°N	75.75°E	1385.60	51855	且末	38.15°N	85.55°E	1247.20
51716	巴楚	39.80°N	78.57°E	1116.50	51931	于田	36.85°N	81.65°E	1422.00
51717	岳普湖	39.25°N	76.78°E	1206.30

Cotton production assessment in the Tarim River Basin based on CMIP6 models

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