“三北”工程区极端降水时空演变特征与影响

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.01

Abstract

Abstract:

The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP), a major ecological engineering initiative in China, faces growing challenges from shifting precipitation patterns. This study utilizes daily precipitation data from 323 meteorological stations across the TNSFP region. The percentile threshold method was used to define extreme precipitation thresholds, calculate relevant indices, and analyze their spatiotemporal evolution. The results Show that (1) Distinct south-north gradient in annual precipitation, with amounts decreasing from the southeast to the northwest. The spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation is closely linked to topography. (2) Southeastern areas exhibit higher extreme precipitation totals, though these show a declining trend. In contrast, the number of extreme precipitation days and their contribution rate have significantly increased in the northwest. (3) Cluster analysis highlights that the intensification of extreme precipitation is concentrated in specific regions, the southern foothills of the Greater Hinggan Mountains, the Qilian Mountains, and the Tianshan-Altai Mountains. In these areas, extreme precipitation accounts for one-third to one-half of annual rainfall. The likely drivers of this intensification include Arctic warming, westerly belt fluctuations, and topographic uplift: demonstrating the complex interactions between large-scale climate patterns and regional geographic features that shape observed trends. These findings have significant implications for the ongoing management and resilience of the TNSFP. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation is essential for developing effective strategies. This research provides valuable insights for anticipating future climate impacts and formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

Key words: climate change, extreme precipitation, cluster analysis, spatiotemporal sequence analysis, Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program

JIANG Anyao, CHEN Ruishan, ZHENG Lilin, GUO Xiaona, SUN Nansha, LI Yinshuai. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and impacts of extreme precipitation in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program region[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(8): 1357-1368.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 63

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指数	缩写	定义	单位
极端降水量	R95P	全年日降水量>第95个百分位值的总降水	mm
极端降水频次	R95D	全年日降水量>第95个百分位值的总频次	d
极端降水强度	R95I	站点的R95P与R95D比值	mm·d^-1
极端降水贡献率	R95C	R95P占全年降水总量的百分比	%
极端降水量倾向率	R95PT	站点的R95P变化情况	mm·（10a）^-1
极端降水频次倾向率	R95DT	站点的R95D变化情况	d·（10a）^-1
极端降水强度倾向率	R95IT	站点的R95I变化情况	mm·d^-1·（10a）^-1
极端降水贡献率倾向率	R95CT	站点的R95C变化情况	%·（10a）^-1

指数	“三北”工程区	中国北部^[49]	青藏高原1^[47]	青藏高原2^[51]	新疆南部^[46]	阴山北麓^[48]	渭河流域^[50]
时间范围	1961—2019年	1960—2017年	2005—2020年	1979—2020年	1961—2020年	1970—2020年	1960—2010年
R95P/mm	3.50~246.20	25.04~149.51	45.00~300.00	42.59	6.00~62.00	47.91~141.52	197.17
R95D/d	0.30~5.90	1.13~2.84	2.50~6.50	2.45	0.10~5.50	3.05~5.12	5.68
R95I/(mm·d^-1)	11.60~76.50	12.48~44.89	10.00~45.00	14.22	3.50~15.50	-	-
R95C/%	11.10~28.60	15.96~49.29	28.50~39.00	12.18	5.00~55.00	-	-
R95PT/[mm·(10a)^-1]	-19.00~17.80	-0.93~3.30	7.33	-	1.45	1.27	-3.32
R95DT/[mm·d^-1·(10a)^-1]	-0.40~1.10	-0.01~0.15	0.15	-	0.23	0.00	-2.27
R95IT/[%·(10a)^-1]	-2.40~2.30	-0.27~0.90	0.83	-	0.01	-	-

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and impacts of extreme precipitation in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program region

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