基于干旱指数与主成分分析的干旱评价——以锡林河流域为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.01.11

Abstract

Abstract: The monthly meteorological data of the Xilin River Basin were used to analyze the annual variation of precipitation and temperature in the study area.The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and integrated meteorological drought index (CI) were calculated and used to characterize the drought conditions in the study area.The principal component analysis was applied to evaluate the drought conditions in the Xilin River Basin.The results showed that the maximum temperature increased slightly in 36 years,and the minimum one did not change substantially.The change trend of the maximum precipitation was reduced,and the monthly minimum precipitation trended basically to zero.The CI index showed that only some light drought events occurred in 36 years,and they were the highest in spring,then in fall,and they were the lowest in summer.The SPI index showed that the drought levels and flood events were different in 36 years,and the higher the disaster degree was,the lower the occurrence probability would be.In winter,the disaster level of drought and flood events was relatively high.The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component of meteorological factors in the study area reflected mainly the impact of water stress on drought conditions,the second principal component reflected mainly the effect of sunshine on drought conditions,and the third principal component reflected mainly the effect of temperature on drought conditions.The results of comprehensive scores indicated that the drought in various places was in an order of Zarut>Bahrain Left Banner>Wengniute Banner>Duolun County>Huade>West Wuzhumuqin>Xilinhot>Linxi County>East Wuzhumuqin>Zhurihe>Abaga Banner>Erlianhaote>Sunit Left Banner.

Key words: meteorological factor, drought index, CI, SPI, principal component analysis, Xilin River Basin

WANG Hui-min, HAO Xiang-yun, ZHU Zhong-yuan. Drought Assessment Based on Drought Index and Principal Component Analysis:A Cased Study in the Xilin River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(1): 95-103.

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Drought Assessment Based on Drought Index and Principal Component Analysis:A Cased Study in the Xilin River Basin

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