阿克苏河流域蒸散量时空变化规律与驱动因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.05

Abstract

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration, as a crucial component of the water cycle, is vital for regulating water resources and protecting the environment, especially in arid regions where it plays a significant role in water consumption and redistribution. This study focused on Aksu River Basin and used MOD16 evapotranspiration product data from 2001 to 2022 to systematically analyze the patterns of spatial and temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration (AET ) and potential evapotranspiration (PET ), along with an exploration of the factors influencing them. The findings provide a scientific basis for managing regional water resources and protecting the environment. The results indicate the following: (1) The MOD16 product data are consistent with ET₀ data (R²=0.8133), and the product accuracy meets the requirements for studying the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin. (2) The multi-year average AET and PET are 168.36 mm and 1569.03 mm, respectively. AET shows an overall increasing trend, while PET exhibits a decreasing one. There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of AET and PET, with the opposite trends being exhibited. (3) Over the last 22 years, AET in Aksu River Basin has significantly increased, mainly in cultivated land, forestland, and oases, while PET has decreased overall but increased near the edges of oases and along river channels. AET is less stable than PET, and the Hurst indices of both indicate that the trends may change in future, with 56% of the area showing anti-persistence for AET and 89% for PET. (4) Changes in AET and PET are intrinsically linked to changes in climatic factors, with wind speed and relative humidity being the main factors influencing regional variations in these two variables. This study provides an important scientific reference for managing and using water resources in arid regions.

Key words: evapotranspiration, water cycle, spatial and temporal variation, water resource management, Aksu River Basin

YANG Chen, MA Bin, HE Xuemin, HAO Zhe, MA Yu. Patterns of spatial and temporal variation of evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin and factors driving them[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(7): 1211-1221.

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β	Z	趋势类型
β>0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著增长
β>0	\|Z\|≤1.96	轻微增长
β<0	\|Z\|≤1.96	轻微减少
β<0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著减少

β	H	趋势类型
β>0	H>0.5	持续增加
β>0	H<0.5	可能由增加变为减少
β<0	H>0.5	持续减少
β<0	H<0.5	可能由减少变为增加

蒸散类型	趋势类型	面积比例/%
AET	显著增长	94.96
	轻微增长	0.69
	稳定不变	0.03
	轻微减少	0.72
	显著减少	3.57
PET	显著增长	9.39
	轻微增长	3.18
	稳定不变	0.04
	轻微减少	4.14
	显著减少	83.25

蒸散类型	波动程度	面积比例/%
AET	非常稳定	0.16
	稳定	36.34
	不稳定	38.86
	非常不稳定	25.14
PET	非常稳定	96.41
	稳定	3.56
	不稳定	0.03
	非常不稳定	0

	气温	风速	水汽压	相对湿度	日照时数
AET	0.207	0.817^**	0.174	-0.606^**	0.34
PET	0.089	-0.446^*	-0.057	0.372	0.321

Patterns of spatial and temporal variation of evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin and factors driving them

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