疏勒河中下游生态脆弱区土地利用变化与未来生境质量评估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.13

Abstract

Abstract:

The Shule River Basin belongs to a typical arid zone oasis-desert ecosystem, with a fragile ecological environment. Scientific regulation of land use is crucial for regional development and ecological protection. Based on land use data obtained from the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images in 2012, 2017, and 2022, combined with the Markov-PLUS model, three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) were set to predict land use in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the basin in 2035 and assess changes in the basin’s habitat quality. The results show that: (1) During the period 2012-2022, the land use in the river basin exhibited a distinct positive transition. Saline-alkali land and unused land displayed a notable declining trend, with their areas decreasing by 484.08 km² and 654.61 km² respectively. Over the same period, the areas of wetlands and shrub-covered land increased by 228.69 km² and 502.33 km² respectively. (2) The overall habitat quality of the basin was relatively low. From 2012 to 2022, the average habitat quality was 0.2799, with low habitat quality being dominant, accounting for 54.28% of the study area. However, it showed an overall improving trend. (3) Among the three scenarios in 2035, the area of shrubland and wetlands will increase, while the area of saline-alkali land and unused land will continue to decrease. Habitat quality will mainly show a transition from “low level to high level”. The habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario is the optimal, increasing by 7.25% compared with that in 2022. Under the continuous warming and wetting trend in Northwest China, efforts should be made to strengthen the optimal allocation and scientific management of land use.

Key words: land use change, Markov-PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, habitat quality, Shule River Basin

HUANG Zhipu, WANG Junde, CHENG Yufei, ZHOU Haohao, ZHANG Zhan, BAO Zhiwei, YANG Chuanguo. Land use change and future habitat quality evaluation in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 2104-2116.

Figures/Tables 13

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数据类型	数据名称	空间分辨率	数据来源
土地利用数据	土地利用2012年	30 m	中国资源卫星中心数据网站(https://data.cresda.cn/)高分辨率遥感解译
土地利用数据	土地利用2017年、2022年	2 m	中国资源卫星中心数据网站(https://data.cresda.cn/)高分辨率遥感解译
自然因子数据	高程	30 m	CGIAR-CS（http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/）
	坡度	30 m	基于DEM提取
	年均降水量	1000 m	国家青藏高原中心（http://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
	年均气温	1000 m
	年潜在蒸散发量	1000 m
	土壤类型	1000 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
	土壤风力侵蚀度	1000 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
	年最大NDVI	30 m	国家生态科学数据中心（https://www.nesdc.org.cn/）
社会经济数据	人口密度	1000 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
社会经济数据	人均GDP	1000 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
区域可达性数据	距主要道路的距离	300 m	OpenStreetMap（https://www.openstreetmap.org/）
区域可达性数据	距水系的距离	300 m	OpenStreetMap（https://www.openstreetmap.org/）

模拟发展情景	基本要求
自然发展情景	假如未来的土地利用政策不变，土地利用变化情况与2017—2022年的变化情况保持一致，各地类的转移概率不变，计算2035年的各地类土地利用需求量，不设置功能限制区
耕地保护情景	《酒泉市2021—2035年国土面积发展规划》要求严格落实耕地保护制度，遏制耕地“非农化”，坚守3001.9 km²耕地保护红线，确保耕地资源有效利用和保护。此情景通过耕地向草地、林地、灌木、水域转移发生概率减少40%，禁止耕地向建设用地、未利用地和盐碱地的转变，加强对耕地转出的管理，保证耕地面积不减少
生态保护情景	《酒泉市“十四五”生态环境保护规划》要求将重要水源涵养、生物多样性保护及水土保持等重要区域划入生态保护红线，加强对湿地生态环境的保护和荒漠化、盐碱化的修复治理。因此，该情景设置禁止林地、灌木、草地和湿地向建设用地、盐碱地和未利用地转变，水域作为功能限制区。同时，将未利用地向草地、林地、灌木、水域、湿地转移发生概率提高20%，盐碱地向草地、林地、灌木、水域、湿地转移提高50%

胁迫源	最大胁迫距离/km	权重	方式
耕地	2	0.7	线性
建设用地	3	0.7	指数
未利用地	3	0.3	线性
盐碱地	4	0.6	线性

土地类型	适宜性系数	耕地	建设用地	未利用地	盐碱地
耕地	0.5	0	0.6	0.4	0.2
林地	1	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.4
灌木	0.9	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.4
草地	0.8	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.6
水体	1	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.5
建设用地	0	0	0	0	0
未利用地	0.05	0.3	0.1	0	0.1
盐碱地	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0
湿地	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.7

土地类型	2012年	2017年	2022年	2012—2017年		2017—2022年		2012—2022年
土地类型	面积/km²	面积/km²	面积/km²	变化/km²	K/%	变化/km²	K/%	变化/km²	K/%
耕地	1716.68	1782.95	1804.20	66.27	0.77	21.25	0.24	87.52	0.97
林地	92.43	139.10	153.98	46.67	10.10	14.88	2.14	61.55	7.99
灌木	1412.72	1718.40	1915.05	305.68	4.33	196.65	2.29	502.33	5.25
草地	2283.93	2536.36	2444.17	252.43	2.21	-92.19	-0.73	160.24	1.31
水体	114.83	146.03	129.45	31.20	5.43	-16.58	-2.27	14.62	2.26
建设用地	139.65	197.18	223.39	57.53	8.24	26.21	2.66	83.74	7.50
未利用地	7735.76	7231.97	7081.15	-503.79	-1.30	-150.82	-0.42	-654.61	-1.85
盐碱地	1260.00	927.92	775.92	-332.08	-5.27	-152.00	-3.28	-484.08	-12.48
湿地	133.73	209.82	362.42	76.09	11.38	152.60	14.55	228.69	12.62
LC/%	-	-	-	1.123		0.553		0.765

Land use change and future habitat quality evaluation in the ecologically fragile areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River

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