1957—2015年叶尔羌河流域气候变化特征及其径流响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.01.07

Abstract

Abstract: The characteristics of the dry and wet climate changes in different regions were analyzed using the linear trend,correlation analysis,cumulative anomaly and the Mann-kendall (M-K) mutation test based on the long-term observation data from the meteorological and hydrological stations in the Yarkant River Basin.Moreover,the different climate scenario combinations were assumed to analyze the response degree of runoff volume to climate change.The results showed that:① Both the temperature and precipitation in the 4 units were in an increase trend; in addition to the upper reaches,the relative humidity,average wind speed and wind days in the drainage basin were in a decrease trend,but the runoff volume was in an increase trend;② The mutations of temperature and relative humidity occurred in 1996 and 2005 respectively,but there was no obvious mutation of precipitation; the mutation of mean wind speed in the drainage basin occurred in 1983 except in the lower reaches,and the runoff volume was sharply increased by 9.08×10⁸ m³ in 1993;③ The correlation analysis showed that the runoff volume was positively correlated with the mean air temperature and the minimum (maximum) air temperature in wet season,and negatively correlated with the average wind speed,gale days and the relative humidity in wet season.In addition to the runoff volume was positively correlated with the dry season precipitation in the upper reaches,it was negatively correlated with precipitation in other areas; ④ Sensitivity analysis showed that,when precipitation was constant and the temperature increased by 1 ℃,the runoff volume was increased by 9.06%; when the temperature did not change and the precipitation increased by 10%,the runoff volume was decreased by 1.67%,which was mainly related to the runoff composition.The 77.4% runoff was recharged by ice-snow melt water.With the increase of precipitation,the temperature was decreased,and the melting of glacier and snow was reduced.At this time,the increase of precipitation could not make up for the recharge decrease of ice-snow melt water,so the runoff volume was positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with precipitation,and it was more sensitive to temperature change.

Key words: climate change, air temperature, precipitation, runoff volume, sensitivity, Yarkant River Basin

ZHANG Xue-qi, Mansur Shabit, LIU Hai-tao, MA Guo-fei. Response of Runoff Volume to Climate Change in the Yarkant River Basin during the Period of 1957-2015[J].Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(1): 58-66.

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Response of Runoff Volume to Climate Change in the Yarkant River Basin during the Period of 1957-2015

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