基于TVDI的新疆地区干旱时空变化特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱是影响新疆地区生态环境和农业生产的重要因素，及时开展干旱监测对于新疆地区保证粮食安全具有指导意义。本文基于2001—2020年间MODIS数据的地表温度（LST）和归一化植被指数（NDVI）构建温度植被干旱指数（TVDI），探索新疆地区干旱分布特征及未来演变趋势。结果表明：（1）新疆地区年均有78.7%的区域在遭受不同程度的干旱，近20 a TVDI均值为0.58，整体处于轻旱水平。（2）新疆地区未来干旱情况有所缓解，TVDI下降速率为每年0.0017，81%的地区有逐渐湿润的趋势。（3） TVDI与气象因子呈现弱相关，与海拔呈现强相关关系。干旱程度较高时，未利用地对TVDI的贡献率较大；干旱程度较低时，草地对TVDI的贡献率较大。未利用地面积和干旱呈现正相关关系，林地和草地面积与干旱呈现负相关关系，减少未利用地面积、增加林地和草地覆盖对缓解干旱具有积极意义。

关键词: TVDI, 干旱, 趋势分析, 新疆

Abstract:

Drought is a significant factor affecting the ecological stability and agricultural productivity of Xinjiang. Timely drought monitoring is crucial for ensuring food security in the region. This study constructed the TVDI based on the Land Surface Temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from the MODIS data between 2001 and 2020. This study explores the spatial distribution characteristics of drought in Xinjiang and its potential future evolution trends. The results indicate that: (1) On average, 78.7% of the region experiences drought of varying degrees, with a mean TVDI of 0.58 over the past two decades, suggesting a generally mild drought. (2) Future drought conditions in Xinjiang are expected to ease, with a TVDI decline rate of 0.0017 per year, and 81% of the region showing a trend toward increasing moisture levels. (3) TVDI correlates weakly with meteorological factors but strongly with elevation. When the degree of drought is relatively high, unused land contributes significantly to the TVDI, whereas grassland contributes significantly to the TVDI when the degree of drought is relatively low. Additionally, the unused land area correlates positively with drought, whereas forest and grassland areas correlate negatively with drought. These findings highlight the importance of reducing unused land and expanding forest and grassland areas to mitigate drought conditions.

Key words: TVDI, drought, trend analysis, Xinjiang

李晓鹏, 李康, 雷双, 贾富贵, 徐静. 基于TVDI的新疆地区干旱时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(4): 589-599.

LI Xiaopeng, LI Kang, LEI Shuang, JIA Fugui, XU Jing. Spatiotemporal variations in drought conditions in Xinjiang based on TVDI[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 589-599.

图/表 17

图1

表1

表2

表3

Sen+M-K趋势变化等级"

Sen趋势	检验统计量 $Z c$
Sen趋势	$Z c ≥ 2.58$	$1.96 ≤ Z c < 2.58$	$1.65 ≤ Z c < 1.96$	$Z c < 1.65$
β>0.001	显著变干	变干	轻微变干	稳定不变
-0.001<β<0.001	稳定不变	稳定不变	稳定不变	稳定不变
β<-0.001	显著变湿	变湿	轻微变湿	稳定不变

表3

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表4

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

图13

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数据类型	时间范围	数据来源
MODIS/MOD13A2	2001—2020 年	GEE（Google Earth Engine）
MODIS/MOD11A2	2001—2020 年	GEE（Google Earth Engine）
年均降水和气温数据	2001—2020 年	新疆维吾尔自治区统计局
土地利用覆盖数据	2001—2020 年	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
DEM数据	2000年	NASA官网（https://www. nasa.gov）

等级	TVDI	类型
1	0<TVDI≤0.2	湿润
2	0.2<TVDI≤0.4	正常
3	0.4<TVDI≤0.6	轻旱
4	0.6<TVDI≤0.8	中旱
5	0.8<TVDI≤1	重旱

发展方向	未来变化趋势	百分比/%
持续变湿	强持续性变湿	2.2
持续变湿	弱持续性变湿	23.3
过去变干未来变湿趋势	反弱持续性变干	48.1
过去变干未来变湿趋势	反强持续性变干	7.4
过去变湿未来变干趋势	反弱持续性变湿	5.6
过去变湿未来变干趋势	反强持续性变湿	1.2
持续变干	弱持续性变干	3.1
持续变干	强持续性变干	1.4
基本不变	基本不变	7.7