基于GRACE/GRACE-FO的黄河流域水储量及干旱特征研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于GRACE和GRACE-FO重力卫星数据反演2002—2022年黄河流域陆地水储量，并计算标准化水储量赤字干旱指数（Water Storage Deficit Index，WSDI），分析了2002—2022年黄河流域的干旱特征。结果表明：在2002—2022年期间，黄河流域全域、上游和中下游陆地水储量的长期减少趋势约为5.43 mm·a^-1、1.03 mm·a^-1和8.36 mm·a^-1。在2002—2022年间，黄河流域全域、上游和中下游分别发生干旱事件6次、11次和8次。在干旱强度上，黄河流域上游多见中度及以上干旱，中下游多见轻度干旱，全域多见轻度干旱。2022年黄河流域干旱事件集中发生在上游和中下游交界处，黄河流域上游是干旱事件主要发生区域，除黄河源区外，全年均处于干旱状态；黄河流域上游和中下游交界处的内流河流域和汾河流域干旱现象明显；黄河流域下游仅有少数月份受干旱影响。在2022年内，干旱事件中心从前套流域逐步迁移到西套流域。

关键词: GRACE/GRACE-FO, 陆地水储量, 干旱, 黄河流域

Abstract:

This study used GRACE and GRACE-FO gravity satellite data to invert the Terrestrial Water Storage reserves in the Yellow River Basin from 2002 to 2022. We also calculated the standardized Water Storage Deficit Index to analyze the drought characteristics of the Yellow River Basin from 2002 to 2022. From 2002 to 2022, the Terrestrial Water Storage in the entire Yellow River Basin, upstream, and middle lower reaches was about 5.43 mm·a^-1, 1.03 mm·a^-1, and 8.36 mm·a^-1, respectively. Between 2002 and 2022, six drought events occurred in the entire Yellow River Basin, eleven in the upper reaches and eight in the middle and lower reaches. Regarding the drought intensity, moderate and extreme droughts were more common in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, mild drought was more common in the middle and lower reaches, and mild drought was more common in the entire region, with the strongest event being severe drought. The drought events in the Yellow River Basin in 2022 were concentrated at the junction of the upper and middle lower reaches. Drought events mainly occurred in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin; the area is in a drought state throughout the year, except for the Yellow River source area. The drought phenomenon is evident in the Inland River Basin and Fen River Basin at the junction of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin; only a few months in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin are affected by drought. In 2022, the center of the drought events gradually shifted from the Qiantao Basin to the Xitao Basin.

Key words: GRACE/GRACE-FO, terrestrial water storage, drought, Yellow River Basin

栾奎峰, 薛家盛, 冯贵平, 胡健聪, 管志豪, 朱卫东, 元建胜. 基于GRACE/GRACE-FO的黄河流域水储量及干旱特征研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(2): 246-257.

LUAN Kuifeng, XUE Jiasheng, FENG Guiping, HU Jiancong, GUAN Zhihao, ZHU Weidong, YUAN Jiansheng. Drought characteristics of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow River Basin based on GRACE/GRACE-FO[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 246-257.

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干旱程度	WSDI	scPDSI	SPEI12
正常	>0	>-1	>0
轻度干旱	-1~0	-2~-1	-1~0
中度干旱	-2~-1	-3~-2	-1~-1.5
重度干旱	-3~-2	-4~-3	-2~-1.5
极端干旱	<-3	<-4	<-2

	黄河全域				黄河上游				黄河中下游
	轻度	中度	重度	极端	轻度	中度	重度	极端	轻度	中度	重度	极端
月份数	92	33	7	0	73	18	10	10	82	31	9	3
总月数	132				111				125
占比/%	36.9	13.3	2.8	0.0	29.3	7.2	4.0	4.0	32.9	12.4	3.6	1.2
总占比/%	53.0				44.6				50.2

区域	时间段/年-月	持续时间/个月	干旱程度	平均严重程度(WSD)/mm	最大严重程度(WSD)/mm
黄河全域	2002-11—2003-04	6	轻度干旱	0.35	0.90
	2011-03—2011-05	3	轻度干旱	0.46	0.62
	2013-03—2013-05	3	轻度干旱	0.29	0.58
	2013-09—2014-04	8	轻度干旱	1.27	2.25
	2014-08—2021-09	86	重度干旱	3.84	6.82
	2022-01—2022-12	12	中度干旱	3.36	5.04
黄河上游	2002-08—2003-05	10	中度干旱	0.85	1.71
	2008-05—2008-07	3	轻度干旱	1.07	1.48
	2009-04—2009-09	6	轻度干旱	0.41	0.80
	2011-02—2011-05	3	轻度干旱	1.00	1.46
	2012-01—2012-03	3	重度干旱	1.43	2.44
	2013-09—2014-04	8	中度干旱	0.95	1.73
	2014-08—2015-06	11	中度干旱	1.35	2.50
	2015-11—2016-09	11	极端干旱	2.78	5.03
	2016-11—2017-06	8	极端干旱	3.10	4.99
	2021-07—2021-11	5	极端干旱	2.38	6.37
	2022-01—2022-12	12	极端干旱	4.24	7.56
黄河中下游	2022-10—2003-03	6	轻度干旱	1.35	2.22
	2011-03—2011-05	3	轻度干旱	1.69	2.20
	2013-04—2013-06	3	轻度干旱	1.36	2.09
	2013-09—2014-04	8	轻度干旱	1.88	3.45
	2014-08—2015-04	9	轻度干旱	2.17	4.98
	2015-06—2021-10	77	极端干旱	6.87	15.44
	2022-04—2022-06	3	轻度干旱	3.26	4.20
	2022-08—2022-12	5	中度干旱	4.68	7.99

时段/年-月	WSDI	scPDSI	SPEI12	对应干旱程度（WSDI/scPDSI/SPEI12)
2002-11—2003-04	-0.087	-2.240	-0.665	轻度干旱/中度干旱/轻度干旱
2011-03—2011-05	-0.118	-2.074	-0.340	轻度干旱/中度干旱/轻度干旱
2013-03—2013-05	-0.073	-1.228	0.252	轻度干旱/轻度干旱/正常
2013-09—2014-04	-0.324	-1.386	0.057	轻度干旱/轻度干旱/正常
2014-08—2016-06	-0.852	-0.970	-0.159	轻度干旱/正常/轻度干旱