1990—2023年新疆地表水体面积动态变化及其驱动因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.04

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 40-50.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.04 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250104

1990—2023年新疆地表水体面积动态变化及其驱动因素

邹彬¹^,²(), 邹珊²^,³^,⁴(), 杨余辉¹

1.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830054
2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
3.中国科学院大学，北京 10049
4.阿克苏绿洲农田生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站，新疆阿克苏 843017

收稿日期:2024-10-06 修回日期:2024-11-08 出版日期:2025-01-15 发布日期:2025-01-17
通讯作者: 邹珊. E-mail: zoushan@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:邹彬（2000-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区水文过程研究. E-mail: zoubin0304@163.com
基金资助:
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2023xjkk0101)

Dynamic changes and driving factors of surface water body in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2023

ZOU Bin¹^,²(), ZOU Shan²^,³^,⁴(), YANG Yuhui¹

1. College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017, Xinjiang, China

Received:2024-10-06 Revised:2024-11-08 Published:2025-01-15 Online:2025-01-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆拥有独特的山地-绿洲-荒漠生态系统，其中地表水体是维持生态平衡和支持区域经济社会发展的核心要素。本研究利用Landsat 5/7/8/9卫星遥感影像，运用混合指数算法对1990—2023年新疆地表水体面积进行计算，并分析其空间格局及变化特征。同时，采用地理探测器方法揭示了影响地表水体面积变化的因素。结果表明：1990—2023年新疆永久性水体面积增加了36.25%（2466.20 km²），主要由山地水体主导，特别是羌塘高原内陆河流域显著扩张，增加约三分之二（1149.58 km²）；季节性水体面积则增长了181.90%（1924.84 km²），以绿洲-荒漠水体为主，其中塔里木河干流尤为突出，面积增加约两倍（344.92 km²）。山地水体的变化主要受到气候因素的影响，其中雪水当量的平均贡献率最高，达到42.84%；而人类活动对绿洲-荒漠水体的影响则较大，人口密度和耕地的平均贡献率分别为64.10%和54.43%。本研究全面分析了新疆地表水体的时空变化特征及其驱动因素，为科学评估新疆水资源开发潜力及制定合理的水资源管理策略提供了一定的科学依据。

关键词: 地表水体, Landsat, 山地-绿洲-荒漠, 气候变化, 新疆

Abstract:

Xinjiang features a unique mountain-oasis-desert ecological system, in which the surface water body plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance and supporting regional socioeconomic development. This study used Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 satellite remote sensing images and a mixed index algorithm to estimate Xinjiang’s surface water area from 1990 to 2023 for analysis of its spatial patterns and changes over time. Geographic detector methods were used to identify the factors influencing changes in the surface water area. The findings revealed that between 1990 and 2023, the area of the permanent water body in Xinjiang increased by 36.25% (2466.20 km²), driven primarily by the mountain water body. Notably, the inland river basins of the Qiangtang Plateau expanded significantly by approximately two-thirds (1149.58 km²). The seasonal water bodies, mainly consisting of the oasis-desert water body, also rose by 181.90% (1924.84 km²), with the mainstream Tarim River nearly doubling in area (344.92 km²). Changes in mountain water bodies were largely influenced by climatic factors, with the snow water equivalent contributing the highest average rate (42.84%). In contrast, human activities had a more substantial impact on the oasis-desert water body, with population density and cultivated land exhibiting average contribution rates of 64.10% and 54.43%, respectively. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the temporal and spatial changes in Xinjiang’s surface water body and their driving factors, thereby offering critical scientific insights for assessing water resource development potential and formulating effective water resource management strategies in the region.

Key words: surface water body, Landsat, mountain-oasis-desert, climate change, Xinjiang

邹彬, 邹珊, 杨余辉. 1990—2023年新疆地表水体面积动态变化及其驱动因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(1): 40-50.

ZOU Bin, ZOU Shan, YANG Yuhui. Dynamic changes and driving factors of surface water body in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2023[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 40-50.

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Sentinel-2A 目视解译结果	提取结果		总计/个	用户精度
Sentinel-2A 目视解译结果	水体/个	非水体/个	总计/个	用户精度
水体	1098	47	1145	95.90%
非水体	68	6787	6855	99.01%
总计	1166	6834	8000	总体精度=98.57%
生产者精度	94.17%	99.31%		Kappa系数=94.18%

1990—2023年新疆地表水体面积动态变化及其驱动因素

Dynamic changes and driving factors of surface water body in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2023

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