河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性时空格局演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在西北干旱区绿洲退化与人类活动加剧背景下，如何量化河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性水平并揭示其时空分异规律，已成为干旱区生态安全保障领域的关键科学问题。研究通过构建系统韧性评估指标体系，综合运用熵值法等相关方法，全面分析2015—2023年河西走廊绿洲系统韧性演变特征。结果表明：（1）社会经济、资源管理子系统韧性总体呈上升趋势，分别从0.36升至0.46、0.38升至0.69，而生态状态子系统韧性则呈先升后降趋势，即从2015年的0.40升至2021年的0.70，后降至2023年的0.60；（2）系统韧性总体处于稳定状态，但仍处于较低韧性水平且韧性平均得分0.35；（3）该地区5个城市Theil指数呈上升趋势，总体Theil指数从0.18增至0.64，但在2016—2017年和2018—2019年下降，分别从0.24降至0.13、0.27降至0.13；（4）系统核密度曲线呈拖尾特征并逐步由“单峰”向“多峰”演变。最后，研究从构建基于空间分异的水资源智能管控平台，实现精准预警与差异化调控等三方面提出对策建议。

关键词: 河西走廊, 绿洲, 社会-生态系统, 韧性, 时空格局, 演变特征

Abstract:

Given oasis degradation and increased human activities in the arid northwest region, quantifying the resilience of the oasis socioecological system in the Hexi Corridor and uncovering its spatio-temporal differentiation patterns have become critical issues in ecological security research for arid areas. This study developed a resilience assessment index system and conducted a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of resilience within the oasis system in the Hexi Corridor from 2015 to 2023, utilizing the entropy method alongside other relevant approaches. The findings indicate that (1) the resilience of the socioeconomic and resource management subsystems generally increased, rising from 0.36 to 0.46 and from 0.38 to 0.69, respectively. By contrast, the resilience of the ecological state subsystem initially increased, reaching 0.70 in 2021, but then declined to 0.60 in 2023, down from 0.40 in 2015; (2) overall system resilience remained stable but at a relatively low level, with an average score of 0.35; (3) the Theil index across the five cities in the region exhibited an upward trend, with the overall index rising from 0.18 to 0.64. However, it decreased from 0.24 to 0.13 between 2016 and 2017 and from 0.27 to 0.13 between 2018 and 2019; (4) the system’s kernel density curve demonstrated a tailing feature, evolving from a “single peak” to a “multipeak” pattern. Finally, the study proposed countermeasures and suggestions focusing on three areas: developing a spatially differentiated intelligent water resource management platform, implementing precise early warning systems, and enacting differentiated regulatory measures.

Key words: Hexi Corridor, oasis, social-ecological system, resilience, spatio-temporal pattern, evolution characteristics

李季, 王静. 河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性时空格局演变特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(10): 1887-1898.

LI Ji, WANG Jing. Evolutionary characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of resilience in oasis social-ecological systems in the Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1887-1898.

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目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	单位	属性	指标层权重
河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性	社会经济子系统	0.36	人均GDP	元	+	0.18
			农村居民人均可支配收入	元	+	0.04
			工业增长率	%	-	0.04
			人口自然增长率	%	+	0.04
			城镇化率	%	+	0.06
	生态状况子系统	0.24	森林覆盖率	%	+	0.07
			城市空气质量优良天数	d	+	0.04
			年平均降水量	mm	+	0.06
			荒漠化土地面积	10⁴ km²	-	0.04
			水土流失指数	Sc	-	0.03
	资源管理子系统	0.40	人均水资源占有量	m³	+	0.15
			生态用水量	10⁸ m³	+	0.05
			城市建成区绿地率	%	+	0.02
			人工造林面积	hm²	+	0.09
			饮用水水质达标率	%	+	0.01
			粮食总产量	10⁴ t	+	0.08

方法	结果	一致性表现
熵值法	确定系统韧性评估指标权重	计算结果为TOPSIS提供权重依据，评估中协同作用，构成韧性评估的量化基础
TOPSIS法	酒泉韧性最高（C_i 0.42~0.47）	核密度分析显示酒泉峰值最高（0.50），Theil显示其区域差异贡献度达38%
核密度分析	曲线出现拖尾状态，且由“单峰”逐渐向“多峰”转变	5市系统韧性逐渐上升，但嘉峪关韧性上升更快且核密度曲线分布更集中（0.30~0.40）
Theil指数	绿洲及5市Theil指数呈上升趋势，2015—2023年总 Theil指数从0.18增至0.64，区域差异呈显著扩大趋势， 2016—2017年和2018—2019年Theil指数下降	Theil指数上升表明区域间各市韧性差异扩大，与核密度分析中出现多峰或拖尾现象相一致。同时，Theil指数下降阶段（2016—2017年和2018—2019年）对应核密度分析中韧性指数分布更均匀时期