干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 384-396.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.17 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250217
• 农业生态 • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2024-10-14
修回日期:
2024-12-09
出版日期:
2025-02-15
发布日期:
2025-02-21
通讯作者:
张文翔. E-mail: wenxiangzhang@ynnu.edu.cn作者简介:
文迪(1999-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为气候变化及农业生态环境. E-mail: 1159673486@qq.com
基金资助:
WEN Di1(), LYU Aifeng2, LI Taohui3, ZHANG Wenxiang1(
)
Received:
2024-10-14
Revised:
2024-12-09
Published:
2025-02-15
Online:
2025-02-21
摘要:
农业光热资源是塔里木盆地西部大开发国家战略中核心的优势资源。然而,目前鲜见对塔里木盆地农业光热资源开发潜力进行综合定量评估。在对塔里木盆地农业光热资源时空演变特征分析的基础上,构建了综合的评价指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法和Mann-Kendall检验等方法对塔里木盆地农业光热资源的开发潜力进行量化评估。结果表明:(1)1990—2020年塔里木盆地的农业光热资源中年日照时数、年太阳辐射总量、≥10 ℃活动积温和年平均气温都呈现上升趋势,而≥3 h有效日照天数和年蒸发量则呈现下降趋势。(2)塔里木盆地的农业光热资源存在显著的空间不均衡性,不同指标呈现不同的空间分异特征,形成了显著的高农业光热资源和低农业光热资源聚集分布的空间特征。(3)塔里木盆地农业光热资源开发潜力存在显著空间差异,开发潜力评分均值为0.199,最高的策勒县(0.578)是最低的柯坪县(0.094)的6倍多,形成“多核心”的分布态势。研究结果可为塔里木盆地的农业光热资源开发利用提供参考,助力提升当地资源利用率。
文迪, 吕爱锋, 李涛辉, 张文翔. 塔里木盆地农业光热资源特征及开发潜力分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(2): 384-396.
WEN Di, LYU Aifeng, LI Taohui, ZHANG Wenxiang. Characteristics and development potential analysis of agricultural solar-thermal resources in the Tarim Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 384-396.
表1
塔里木盆地农业光热资源开发潜力评价指标体系及数据来源"
准则层 | 指标层 | 指标定义 | 单位 | 数据来源 | 指标 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
光热资源禀赋 | 年日照时数 | 一年内日照时间的累计值 | h | 新疆第三次科学考察 | A1 |
年太阳辐射总量 | 一年内太阳辐射的累计值 | MJ·m-2 | A2 | ||
≥3 h有效日照天数 | 一年内日照时长≥3 h的天数 | d | A3 | ||
≥10 ℃活动积温 | 一年中日平均温稳定维持在≥10 ℃的日平均温度的总和 | ℃ | A4 | ||
年平均气温 | 全年各日平均气温的算术平均值 | ℃ | A5 | ||
年蒸发量 | 一年内区域表面的潜在(水面)蒸发量 | mm | A6 | ||
农业资源现状 | 水资源量 | 区域内地表和地下水资源总量 | 108 m3 | 新疆统计年鉴 | A7 |
农业水资源利用量 | 农业生产活动中利用的水资源量 | 108 m3 | A8 | ||
有效灌溉面积 | 能够得到有效灌溉的农田面积 | 103 hm2 | A9 | ||
农用地面积比重 | 区域内农用地占总面积的比重 | % | A10 | ||
农业基础设施投入 | 区域内农业基础设施的投入成本 | 104元 | A11 | ||
农业生态环境 | 土壤侵蚀模数 | 单位面积土地受到侵蚀的程度 | 遥感气候数据集 | A12 | |
人均GDP | 区域内人均生产总值 | 元 | 新疆统计年鉴 | A13 | |
农业总产值 | 区域内农业生产总值 | 104元 | A14 | ||
旱涝发生频率 | 区域内旱涝事件的发生比例 | % | A15/A16 | ||
退化耕地比重 | 耕地退化面积占耕地面积的比重 | % | A17 |
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