气候暖湿化背景下新疆极端气候事件时空演变特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1982—2020年逐日气象数据，采用趋势分析、相关分析、Hurst指数及相对重要性等方法，分析新疆极端气候事件时空变化特征及规律。结果表明：新疆极端温度指数均表现出暖化趋势，不同极端温度指数呈增温趋势的站点占比为50.98%~100%。冷指数增温高于暖指数，空间上南疆暖化趋势较北疆更加显著。除持续干旱指数CDD外，极端降水指数整体均呈不显著上升趋势，占比为61.76%~85.29%。极端温度频率指数和雨日降水总量及中、小雨日数的增加对新疆暖湿化趋势贡献相对较大。除冰冻日数ID和年均雨日降水强度SDII外，其他极端气候指数变化均可持续，且极端降水的增加和多数极端温度尤其是冷指数暖化趋势在高海拔区域更明显。

关键词: 气候暖湿化, 极端气候, 时空特征, 海拔依赖性, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2020, the spatial and temporal variability characteristics of extreme climate events in Xinjiang were analyzed using the methods of trend analysis, correlation analysis, Hurst index, and relative importance. The results indicate that the extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang show a warming trend, and the proportion of stations with different extreme temperature indices show a warming trend of 50.98%-100%. The temperature of the cold index was higher than that of the warm index, and the warming trend in southern Xinjiang is more significant than that in northern Xinjiang. Except for the continuous drought index, CDD, the overall extreme precipitation indices showed no significant upward trend, and the proportion of stations with an upward trend was 61.76%-85.29%. The increase in extreme temperature frequency indices, total precipitation, and moderate and light rain days significantly contributed to the warming and humidification trend in Xinjiang. Except for freezing days ID and annual mean rain days precipitation intensity SDII, the changes of other extreme climate indices were sustainable, and the extreme precipitation and warming trend of most extreme temperatures, especially the cold index, were more obvious at high altitudes.

Key words: warm and humid climate, extreme climate, spatiotemporal characteristics, altitude dependence, Xinjiang

邬晓丹,罗敏,孟凡浩,萨楚拉,尹超华,包玉海. 气候暖湿化背景下新疆极端气候事件时空演变特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(6): 1695-1705.

WU Xiaodan,LUO Min,MENG Fanhao,SA Chula,YIN Chaohua,BAO Yuhai. New characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of extreme climate events in Xinjiang under the background of warm and humid climate[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1695-1705.

图/表 13

图1

表1

极端气候指数定义与分类"

类别	分类	指数名称	定义	指数代码	单位
极端降水指数	湿指数	单日最大降水量	每月最大1日降水量	Rx1day	mm
		连续5 d最大降水量	连续5日最大降水量	Rx5day	mm
		强降水量	单日降水量大于第95%的降水量和	R95p	mm
		极强降水量	单日降水量大于第99%的降水量和	R99p	mm
		年均雨日降水强度	单日降水量≥ 1mm的总量与总天数之比	SDII	mm·d^-1
		雨日降水总量	雨日(日降水量≥ 1mm)降水总量	PRCPTOT	mm
		持续湿润指数	日降水量≥1 mm的最长连续天数	CWD	d
		小雨日数	每年日降水量(PRCP) ≥1 mm的总天数	R1mm	d
		中雨日数	每年日降水量(PRCP) ≥10 mm的总天数	R10mm	d
		暴雨日数	每年日降水量(PRCP) ≥25 mm的总天数	R25mm	d
	干指数	持续干旱指数	日降水量<1 mm的最长连续天数	CDD	d
极端温度指数	暖指数	暖昼日数	日最高温度>90%分位值的天数	TX90p	d
		暖夜日数	日最低温度>90%分位值的天数	TN90p	d
		夏季日数	年内日最高温度>25 ℃的天数	SU	d
		热夜日数	年内日最低温度>20 ℃的天数	TR	d
		日最高温度的极高值	单月内日最高温度的最大值	TXx	℃
		日最低温度的极高值	单月内日最低温度的最大值	TNx	℃
	冷指数	冷昼日数	日最高温度<10%分位值的天数	TX10p	d
		冷夜日数	日最低温度<10%分位值的天数	TN10p	d
		霜冻日数	年内日最低温度<0 ℃的天数	FD	d
		冰冻日数	年内日最高温度<0 ℃的天数	ID	d
		日最高温度的极低值	单月内日最高温度的最小值	TXn	℃
		日最低温度的极低值	单月内日最低温度的最小值	TNn	℃
	其他指数	暖持续日数	日最高温度>90%分位值的连续6日的天数	WSDI	d
		冷持续日数	日最低温度<10%分位值的连续6日的天数	CSDI	d
		生长季长度	至少6日平均日平均气温>5 ℃的初日与<5 ℃的终日间的日数	GSL	d
		温度日较差	年内日最高温度与最低温度的差值	DTR	℃

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

图8

表3

图9

表4

参考文献 37

[1]	IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability[R]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2022.
[2]	赵雪雁, 雒丽, 王亚茹, 等. 1963—2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(10): 2113-2122.
	[ Zhao Xueyan, Luo Li, Wang Yaru, et al. Extreme temperature events in eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau form 1963-2012[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(10): 2113-2122. ]
[3]	He Zhibin, Du Jun, Chen Longfei, et al. Impacts of recent climate extremes on spring phenology in arid-mountain ecosystems in China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018, 260: 31-40.
[4]	Liu Zhaofei, Yao Zhijun, Huang Heqing, et al. Evaluation of extreme cold and drought over the Mongolian Plateau[J]. Water, 2019, 11(1): 74 doi: 10.3390/w11010074
[5]	Menzel A, Seifert A, Estrella N. Effects of recent warm and cold spells on European plant phenology[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2011, 55(6): 921-932. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0466-x pmid: 21755278
[6]	杨霞, 周鸿奎, 赵克明, 等. 1991—2018年新疆夏季小时极端强降水特征[J]. 高原气象, 2020, 39(4): 762-773. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00114
	[ Yang Xia, Zhou Hongkui, Zhao Keming, et al. Variation features of hourly precipitation in Xinjiang Province during 1991-2018[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2020, 39(4): 762-773. ] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00114
[7]	徐贵青, 魏文寿. 新疆气候变化及其对生态环境的影响[J]. 干旱区地理, 2004, 27(1): 14-18.
	[ Xu Guiqing, Wei Wenshou. Climate change in Xinjiang and its impact on the ecological environment[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2004, 27(1): 14-18. ]
[8]	张延伟, 葛全胜, 姜逢清, 等. 北疆地区1961—2010年极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(2): 296-302. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
	[ Zhang Yanwei, Ge Quansheng, Jiang Fengqing, et al. Evolution characteristics of the extreme high and low temperature event in North Xinjiang in 1961-2010[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(2): 296-302. ] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
[9]	Guan Jingyun, Yao Junqiang, Li Moyan, et al. Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2022, 59: 1-22. doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-06113-z
[10]	李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 新疆极端降水概率分布特征的时空演变规律[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(2): 11-17.
	[ Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of the probability distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang Autonomous Region[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2011, 26(2): 11-17. ]
[11]	杨金虎, 江志红, 王鹏祥, 等. 中国西北极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2008, 28(1): 178-184.
	[ Yang Jinhu, Jiang Zhihong, Wang Pengxiang, et al. Analysis on inner-annual in homogeneity characteristic of extreme precipitation events over Northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2008, 28(1): 178-184. ]
[12]	Yao Junqiang, Yang Qing, Mao Weiyi, et al. Precipitation trend-elevation relationship in arid regions of the China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2016, 143: 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.007
[13]	Zhang Qiang, Li Jianfeng, Singh V P, et al. SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 64(1): 481-492. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0251-0
[14]	Chen Yaning, Deng Haijun, Li Baofu, et al. Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Quaternary International, 2014, 336: 35-43. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2013.12.057
[15]	Ma Long, Wu Jinglu, Abuduwaili J. Variation in aeolian environments recorded by the particle size distribution of lacustrine sediments in Ebinur Lake, Northwest China[J]. Springerplus, 2016, 5(1): 1-8. doi: 10.1186/s40064-015-1659-2
[16]	Hu Wenfeng, Yao Junqiang, He Qing, et al. Changes in precipitation amounts and extremes across Xinjiang (Northwest China) and their connection to climate indices[J]. PeerJ, 2021, 9: e10792. doi: 10.7717/peerj.10792
[17]	Pepin N, Bradley R S, Diaz H F. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(5): 424-430. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2563
[18]	周聿超. 新疆河流水文水资源[M]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆科技卫生出版社, 1999: 1-10.
	[ Zhou Yuchao. Hydrology and Water Resources of Xinjiang Rivers[M]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Science and Health Press, 1999: 1-10. ]
[19]	陈彦光. 地理数学方法: 基础和应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2010: 40-59.
	[ Chen Yanguang. Mathematical Methods for Geography: Foundations and Applications[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2010: 40-59. ]
[20]	Huang Hao, Zhang Bo, Cui Yanqiang, et al. Analysis on the characteristics of dry and wet periods in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Water, 2020, 12(11): 2960. doi: 10.3390/w12112960
[21]	徐建华. 现代地理学中的数学方法(第二版)[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2002: 37-46.
	[ Xu Jianhua. Mathematical Methods in Modern Geography[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2002: 37-46. ]
[22]	Gromping U. Relative importance for linear regression in R: the package relaimpo[J]. Journal of Statistical Software, 2006, 17(1): 1-27.
[23]	柴立夫, 田莉, 奥勇, 等. 人类活动干扰对青藏高原植被覆盖变化的影响[J]. 水土保持研究, 2021, 28(6): 382-388.
	[ Chai Lifu, Tian Li, Ao Yong, et al. Influence of human disturbance on the change of vegetation cover in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2021, 28(6): 382-388. ]
[24]	黄浩, 张勃, 黄涛, 等. 近30 a甘肃省河东地区极端气温指数时空变化特征及趋势预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2): 319-328.
	[ Huang Hao, Zhang Bo, Huang Tao, et al. Quantifying and predicting spatial and temporal variations in extreme temperatures since 1990 in Gansu Province, China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 319-328. ]
[25]	曹晴, 郝振纯, 傅晓洁, 等. 1960—2017年中国极端气候要素时空变化分析[J]. 人民黄河, 2020, 42(2): 11-17.
	[ Cao Qing, Hao Zhenchun, Fu Xiaojie, et al. Analysis of spatial-temporal changes of extreme climatic elements in China from 1960 to 2017[J]. Yellow River, 2020, 42(2): 11-17. ]
[26]	Wang Xuyang, Li Yuqiang, Wang Mingming, et al. Changes in daily extreme temperature and precipitation events in mainland China from 1960 to 2016 under global warming[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2020, 41(2): 1465-1483. doi: 10.1002/joc.6865
[27]	Du Ziqiang, Zhao Jie, Liu Xuejia, et al. Recent asymmetric warming trends of daytime versus nighttime and their linkages with vegetation greenness in temperate China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2019, 26(35): 35717-35727. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06440-z
[28]	朱军涛, 郑家禾. 昼夜不对称变暖对陆地生态系统的影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 2022, 41(4): 777-783.
	[ Zhu Juntao, Zheng Jiahe. Effects of diurnal asymmetric warming on terrestrial ecosystems[J]. Chinese Journal of Eclogy, 2022, 41(4): 777-783. ]
[29]	丁之勇, 董义阳, 鲁瑞洁. 1960—2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(8): 1379-1390. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.08.021
	[ Ding Zhiyong, Dong Yiyang, Lu Ruijie et al. Spatio-temporal variability of temperature extremes in Tianshan Mountains Area, Northwest China, during 1960-2015[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(8): 1379-1390. ] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.08.021
[30]	施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.
	[ Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Hu Ruji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. ]
[31]	赵丽, 杨青, 韩雪云, 等. 1961—2009年新疆极端降水事件时空差异特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2014, 34(2): 550-557.
	[ Zhao Li, Yang Qing, Han Xueyun, et al. Spatial and temporal differences of extreme precipitation during 1961-2009 in Xinjiang, China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2014, 34(2): 550-557. ]
[32]	于晓晶, 赵勇. 地形对天山夏季降水影响的模拟[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016, 36(4): 1133-1143.
	[ Yu Xiaojing, Zhao Yong. Simulation of topographic effects on summer precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2016, 36(4): 1133-1143. ]
[33]	慈晖. 1961—2010年新疆极端气温时空演变特征研究[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 54(4): 129-138.
	[ Ci Hui. Spatial and temporal evolution of temperature extremes in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2010[J]. Journal of Zhongshan University, 2015, 54(4): 129-138. ]
[34]	陈活泼, 孙建奇, 范可. 新疆夏季降水年代际转型的归因分析[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(6): 1844-1851.
	[ Chen Huopo, Sun Jianqi, Fan Ke. Possible mechanism for the interdecadal change of Xinjiang summer precipitation[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2012, 55(6): 1844-1851. ]
[35]	姚俊强, 陈静, 迪丽努尔·托列吾别克, 等. 新疆气候水文变化趋势及面临问题思考[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(5): 1498-1511. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2021.0101
	[ Yao Junqiang, Chen Jing, Dilinuer Tuoliwubieke, et al. Trend of climate and hydrology change in Xinjiang and its problems thinking[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2021, 43(5): 1498-1511. ] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2021.0101
[36]	赵兵科, 蔡承侠, 杨莲梅, 等. 新疆夏季变湿的大气环流异常特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(3): 434-442.
	[ Zhao Bingke, Cai Chengxia, Yang Lianmei, et al. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during wetting summer over Xinjiang region[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(3): 434-442. ]
[37]	李佳秀, 杜春丽, 杜世飞, 等. 新疆极端降水事件的时空变化及趋势预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2015, 32(6): 1103-1112.
	[ Li Jiaxiu, Du Chunli, Du Shifei, et al. Temporal-spatial variation and trend prediction of extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2015, 32(6): 1103-1112. ]

变化趋势	检验标准	温度指数	降水指数
不显著负相关	Slope<0，P>0.05	Tem、FD、TNx、TNn	R99p、CDD
显著负相关	Slope<0，P<0.05	TX10p、ID、SU、TR
不显著正相关	Slope>0，P>0.05	TN10p、TX90p、TN90p、TXx、WSDI、CSDI、DTR	Rx1day、Rx5day、SDII、R25mm
显著正相关	Slope>0，P<0.05	TXn、GSL	Pr、R95p、CWD、PRCPTOT、R1mm、R10mm