1961—2022年祁连山气候特征及其变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全球变暖，中国西北地区出现了暖湿化现象。祁连山地处西北干旱区，东西跨越干旱、半干旱和极干旱气候区，气候也发生了明显变化，对区域生态及水文过程产生了显著的影响。本文基于1961—2022年祁连山以及周边地区常规气象站及雨量站观测的气温降水资料，分析了祁连山气温降水的时空变化特征以及降水与海拔的关系。结果表明：祁连山气温和降水在60 a来呈显著增加趋势，气温年际变化在祁连山中段最大，降水年际变化在祁连山东段最大，在西段最小，山区降水年际变率最大出现在8月。祁连山地区气温增加倾向率约0.36 ℃·(10a)^-1，高于全国水平0.21 ℃·(10a)^-1，冬季升温速率最大为0.45 ℃·(10a)^-1，西段区域升温速率最大为0.5 ℃·(10a)^-1；中段区域降水增加速率最大为11.86 mm·(10a)^-1。祁连山以及周边地区降水增加速率随海拔高度增加。山区降水存在两个峰值，夏季降水量极大值出现在海拔2600~2800 m的高度带，海拔3600~3800 m出现第二个峰值。不同山系降水量随海拔变化大多呈单峰型分布；其中达坂山迎风坡降水量最大，青海南山降水量最小。祁连山地区的气候总体上呈现出暖湿化倾向。年平均最低温度的增加快于最高温度的增加趋势，最低温度在祁连山西段增加最为明显，最低气温的快速上升会对祁连山冰川、生态系统产生影响。

关键词: 气温, 降水, 气候变化, 时空特征, 变化趋势, 祁连山

Abstract:

Global warming has resulted in the phenomenon of warming and wetting in northwest China. The Qilian Mountains is located in the arid region of northwest China, which spans the arid, semi-arid, and extremely arid climate zones from east to west. The climate has also obviously changed, which exerts a significant effect on the regional ecology and hydrological process. Based on the data of air temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains and its surrounding areas from 1961 to 2022, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of air temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains and the relationship between precipitation and changes in precipitation with altitude. Results demonstrated a significant increase in temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains in the past 60 years. The variation in temperature was the largest in the middle part of the Qilian Mountains, and the variation in precipitation was the largest in the east part of the Qilian Mountains, whereas the variation in precipitation was the smallest in the western part. The interannual variation in precipitation was the largest in August. The tendency rate of temperature increase in the Qilian Mountain area was approximately 0.36 ℃·(10a)^-1, which was higher than the national level of 0.21 ℃·(10a)^-1. The maximum temperature increase rate was observed in winter [0.45 ℃·(10a)^-1], particularly in the western region where it was 0.5 ℃·(10a)^-1. The maximum increase rate of precipitation was found in the middle region [11.86 mm·(10a)^-1]. Precipitation in the Qilian Mountains and surrounding areas increased with altitude, showing two peaks. One peak was located at an altitude of 2600-2800 m, and the other was located at an altitude of 3600-3800 m. However, the relationship between precipitation and altitude was generally unimodal for each mountain. Among the mountains, the windward slope of Daban Mountain had the largest precipitation, and Qinghai Nanshan Mountain had the smallest precipitation. The climate in the Qilian Mountains exhibited warming and humidification. The annual mean minimum temperature increased faster than the maximum temperature, and the minimum temperature increased most obviously in the western part of the Qilian Mountains. The rapid increase in the minimum temperature will exert an impact on the glaciers and ecosystems of the Qilian Mountains.

Key words: air temperature, precipitation, climate change, spatio-temporal characteristics, change trend, Qilian Mountains

杨斐, 张文韬, 张飞民, 王澄海. 1961—2022年祁连山气候特征及其变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(10): 1627-1638.

YANG Fei, ZHANG Wentao, ZHANG Feimin, WANG Chenghai. Climate characteristics and variation in the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2022[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1627-1638.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

图6

图7

图8

图9

参考文献 34

[1]	IPCC, 2023: Sections[C]//Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2023: 35-115.
[2]	Yang J, Yang K, Zhang F, et al. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to historical changes in vegetation cover and its future projections in the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2023, 43(14): 6434-6449.
[3]	王澄海, 张晟宁, 张飞民, 等. 论全球变暖背景下中国西北地区降水增加问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 980-989. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2021.087
	[Wang Chenghai, Zhang Shengning, Zhang Feimin, et al. On the increase of precipitation in the Northwestern China under the global warming[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2021, 36(9): 980-989.] doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2021.087
[4]	王澄海, 杨金涛, 杨凯, 等. 过去近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征及未来30 a变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(3): 708-722. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05
	[Wang Chenghai, Yang Jintao, Yang Kai, et al. Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05
[5]	Wang C. Climatology in Cold Regions[M]. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2023.
[6]	王玉洁. 中国西北干旱区气候变化及典型流域影响适应研究[D]. 南京: 南京大学, 2017.
	[Wang Yujie. Research of Climate Change and in Arid Area of Northwest China and Its Impacts and Adaption on Typical Basins[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2017.]
[7]	Zhang Q, Yang J, Wang W, et al. Climatic warming and humidification in the arid region of Northwest China: Multi-scale characteristics and impacts on ecological vegetation[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2021, 35(1): 113-127.
[8]	张强, 朱飙, 杨金虎, 等. 西北地区气候湿化趋势的新特征[J]. 科学通报, 2021, 66(Z2): 3757-3771.
	[Zhang Qiang, Zhu Biao, Yang Jinhu, et al. New characteristics about the climatic humidification trend in Northwest China[J]. China Science Bulletin, 2021, 66 (Z2): 3757-3771.]
[9]	张红丽, 韩富强, 张良, 等. 西北地区气候暖湿化空间与季节差异分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 517-531. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.01
	[Zhang Hongli, Han Fuqiang, Zhang Liang, et al. Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in climate warming and humidification in Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 517-531.] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.01
[10]	徐栋, 孔莹, 王澄海. 西北干旱区水汽收支变化及其与降水的关系[J]. 干旱气象, 2016, 34(3): 431-439. doi: P467
	[Xu Dong, Kong Ying, Wang Chenghai. Changes of water vapor budget in arid area of Northwest China and its relationship with precipitation[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2016, 34(3): 431-439.]
[11]	王澄海, 李健, 许晓光. 中国近50年气温变化准3年周期的普遍性及气温未来的可能变化趋势[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(1): 126-136.
	[Wang Chenghai, Li Jian, Xu Xiaoguang. Universality of quasi-3-year period of temperature in last 50 years and change in next 20 years in China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(1): 126-136.]
[12]	冯起, 李宗省, 王旭峰, 等. 祁连山生态变化评估报告[R]. 兰州: 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 2018: 74-76.
	[Feng Qi, Li Zongxing, Wang Xufeng, et al. Ecological Change Assessment Report of Qilian Mountains[R]. Lanzhou: Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, CAS, 2018: 74-76.]
[13]	Wang L, Chen R, Han C, et al. Change characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Oasis, Northwestern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2019, 78: 1-13.
[14]	敬文茂, 任小凤, 赵维俊. 1965—2018年祁连山北麓及其附近地区气温与降水变化的时空格局[J]. 高原气象, 2022, 41(4): 876-886. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00075
	[Jing Wenmao, Ren Xiaofeng, Zhao Weijun. Spatio-temporal pattern variations of temperature and precipitation in Northern parts of the Qilian Mountains and the nearby regions from 1965 to 2018[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2022, 41(4): 876-886.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00075
[15]	王士维, 孙栋元, 周敏, 等. 1951—2020年疏勒河流域气温时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(7): 1065-1074. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.04
	[Wang Shiwei, Sun Dongyuan, Zhou Min, et al. Temporal and spatial variation of temperature in the Shule River Basin from 1951 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1065-1074.] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.04
[16]	蓝永超, 康尔泗, 张济世, 等. 祁连山区近50 a来的气温序列及变化趋势[J]. 中国沙漠, 2001, 21(1): 53-57.
	[Lan Yongchao, Kang Ersi, Zhang Jishi, et al. Air temperature series and its changing trends in Qilian mountains area since 1950s[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2001, 21(1): 53-57.]
[17]	黄波. 祁连山地区降水的时空分布特征及数值模拟研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2012.
	[Huang Bo. Study on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristic of Precipitation and Numerical Simulation in Qilianshan Mountains, N. W. China[D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2012.]
[18]	王可丽, 江灏, 赵红岩. 西风带与季风对中国西北地区的水汽输送[J]. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(3): 432-438.
	[Wang Keli, Jiang Hao, Zhao Hongyan. Atmospheric water vapor transport from westerly and monsoon over the Northwest China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(3): 432-438.]
[19]	Tian H, Yang T, Liu Q. Climate change and glacier area shrinkage in the Qilian mountains, China, from 1956 to 2010[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 2014, 55(66): 187-197.
[20]	贾文雄. 近50年来祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(11): 1378-1383.
	[Jia Wenxiong. Seasonal variation of extreme temperature in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor in recent 50 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(11): 1378-1383.]
[21]	罗汉, 张强, 杨兴国, 等. 祁连山云降水特征及云水资源开发利用技术研究进展与展望[J]. 冰川冻土, 2023, 45(2): 368-381.
	[Luo Han, Zhang Qiang, Yang Xingguo, et al. Progress and prospect of cloud precipitation characteristics and cloud water resources exploitation and utilization technology in Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2023, 45(2): 368-381.]
[22]	李岩瑛, 张强, 许霞, 等. 祁连山及周边地区降水与地形的关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32 (1): 52-61.
	[Li Yanying, Zhang Qiang, Xu Xia, et al. Relationship between precipitation and terrain over the Qilian Mountains and their ambient areas[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32 (1): 52-61.]
[23]	Chen R, Han C, Liu J, et al. Maximum precipitation altitude on the northern flank of the Qilian Mountains, northwest China[J]. Hydrology Research, 2018, 49(5): 1696-1710.
[24]	常学向, 赵爱芬, 王金叶, 等. 祁连山林区大气降水特征与森林对降水的截留作用[J]. 高原气象, 2002, 21(3): 274-280.
	[Chang Xuexiang, Zhao Aifen, Wang Jinye, et al. Precipitation characteristic and interception of forest in Qilian Mountain[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2002, 21(3): 274-280.]
[25]	张杰, 李栋梁. 祁连山及黑河流域降雨量的分布特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2004, 23(1): 81-88.
	[Zhang Jie, Li Dongliang. Analysis on distribution character of rainfall over Qilian Mountain and Heihe Valley[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(1): 81-88.]
[26]	高翔, 黄星星, 刘宽梅, 等. 祁连山自然保护区植被对气候变化的响应[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(1): 79-88.
	[Gao Xiang, Huang Xingxing, Liu Kuanmei, et al. Vegetation responses to climate changes in Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2022, 58(1): 79-88.]
[27]	程瑛, 徐殿祥, 宋秀玲. 近50年祁连山西段夏季气候变化对冰川发育的影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2009, 26(2): 294-298.
	[Cheng Ying, Xu Dianxiang, Song Xiuling. Evaluation of the effects of summer climate change on glacier development in the west Qilian Mountains over the last 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2009, 26(2): 294-298.]
[28]	尤联元, 杨景春. 中国地貌[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2013.
	[You Lianyuan, Yang Jingchun. Geomorphology of China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2013.]
[29]	尹宪志, 张强, 徐启运, 等. 近50年来祁连山区气候变化特征研究[J]. 高原气象, 2009, 28(1): 85-90.
	[Yin Xianzhi, Zhang Qiang, Xu Qiyun, et al. Characteristics of climate change in Qilian Mountains region in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(1): 85-90.]
[30]	贾文雄, 何元庆, 李宗省, 等. 祁连山区气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析[J]. 地理学报, 2008, 63(3): 257-269.
	[Jia Wenxiong, He Yuanqing, Li Zongxing, et al. The regional difference and catastrophe of climatic change in Qilian Mountains region[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(3): 257-269.]
[31]	王澄海, 张晟宁, 李课臣, 等. 1961—2018年西北地区降水的变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 2021, 45(4): 713-724.
	[Wang Chenghai, Zhang Shengning, Li Kechen, et al. Change characteristics of precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2018[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 45(4): 713-724.]
[32]	蒋强, 魏林波, 李艳, 等. 基于高精度观测资料的2009—2019年祁连山地区降水特征分析[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(1): 89-98.
	[Jiang Qiang, Wei Linbo, Li Yan, et al. Analysis of precipitation characteristics in Qilian Mountains from 2009 to 2019 based on high precision observation data[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 58(1): 89-98.]
[33]	任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等. 近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J]. 气象学报, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.
	[Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun, Xu Mingzhi, et al. Climate changes of China over the past half century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.]
[34]	宋世凯. 全球变暖背景下1960—2014年中国降水时空变化特征[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆大学, 2017.
	[Song Shikai. Spatial and Temporal Variation Characterristics of Precipitation over China During 1960-2014 under global warming[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang University, 2017.]

分区	站点
东段	乌鞘岭，民和，化隆，永昌，门源，西宁，湟源，湟中，贵德，共和
中段	民乐，肃南，野牛沟，祁连，刚察，茶卡，天峻
西段	冷湖，大柴旦，托勒，德令哈

季节	祁连山地区		祁连山东段		祁连山中段		祁连山西段
季节	气温增加倾向率 /[℃·(10a)^-1]	降水增加倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]	气温增加倾向率 /[℃·(10a)^-1]	降水增加倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]	气温增加倾向率 /[℃·(10a)^-1]	降水增加倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]	气温增加倾向率 /[℃·(10a)^-1]	降水增加倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]
全年	0.36	9.94	0.35	8.39	0.37	11.86	0.39	10.48
春季	0.3	2.01	0.3	1.91	0.31	2.38	0.29	1.6
夏季	0.32	5.76	0.32	4.04	0.32	7.38	0.33	7.21
秋季	0.35	1.87	0.32	2.04	0.37	1.88	0.39	1.42
冬季	0.45	0.3	0.44	0.39	0.44	0.22	0.5	0.25