近20 a塔里木河流域山区NDSI对气候变化的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.03

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 1639-1648.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.03 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20241003

近20 a塔里木河流域山区NDSI对气候变化的响应

张音¹^,²(), 孙从建³(), 刘庚¹^,², 钞锦龙¹^,², 耿甜伟¹^,²

1.太原师范学院地理科学学院，山西晋中 030619
2.太原师范学院汾河流域地表过程与资源生态安全山西省重点实验室，山西晋中 030619
3.山西师范大学地理科学学院，山西太原 030031

收稿日期:2024-04-18 修回日期:2024-06-06 出版日期:2024-10-15 发布日期:2024-10-14
通讯作者: 孙从建. E-mail: suncongjian@sina.com
作者简介:张音（1995-），女，博士，讲师，研究方向为水文水资源. E-mail: zhyin3621@163.com
基金资助:
国家基础调查专项第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk010103);科技创新领军人才项目(2022TSYCLJ0012);山西省基础研究计划青年项目(202303021222222);山西省基础研究计划青年项目(202203021222243)

Response of NDSI in the Tarim River Basin mountainous areas to climate change over the past 20 years

ZHANG Yin¹^,²(), SUN Congjian³(), LIU Geng¹^,², CHAO Jinlong¹^,², GENG Tianwei¹^,²

1. School of Geographical Science, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
2. Shanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Security in Fenhe River Valley, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
3. College of Geography, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030031, Shanxi, China

Received:2024-04-18 Revised:2024-06-06 Published:2024-10-15 Online:2024-10-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

NDSI（归一化差异积雪指数）是一种评估地表积雪覆盖程度的指数，对研究山区积雪变化有重要作用。本研究基于2001—2022年遥感数据和再分析数据，采用趋势分析法、多元线性回归法等，分析了近20 a来塔里木河流域山区NDSI时空变化及其归因。结果表明：塔里木河流域山区2001—2022年NDSI均呈下降趋势，具有显著的空间异质性。北部和西部山区，NDSI值的季节变化相同，NDSI平均值从高到低为：冬季>春季>秋季>夏季，而南部山区的NDSI平均值夏季高于秋季。塔里木河流域山区年均实际蒸散发均呈上升趋势。北部山区的降水呈略微下降的趋势，而西部和南部山区表现为上升趋势。所有山区的饱和水汽压差均呈上升趋势。下行地表太阳辐射呈下降趋势。北部和西部山区的最低气温呈上升趋势，南部山区略呈下降趋势，而所有区域最高气温均呈上升趋势。众多变量中，气温和饱和水汽压对NDSI的影响较大。本研究可为政策决策提供科学依据。

关键词: 塔里木河流域, 积雪, 气候变化, NDSI, 多元线性回归

Abstract:

NDSI is used to evaluate the degree of surface snow cover, which plays a vital role in exploring snow cover changes in mountainous areas. In this study, remote sensing data and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2022, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and attribution of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin over the past 20 years. Results indicated a downward trend of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2022, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The seasonal variation of NDSI was similar in the northern and western mountainous areas, with the average NDSI ranking from high to low in winter>spring>autumn>summer. However, the average NDSI in the southern mountainous areas was higher in summer than in autumn. The average annual actual evapotranspiration in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin showed an increasing trend. Precipitation in the northern mountainous areas exhibited a slight downward trend, whereas that in the western and southern mountainous areas showed an upward trend. The difference in saturated water vapor pressure showed an upward trend in all mountainous areas. The downward surface solar radiation exhibited a decreasing trend. The minimum temperature in the northern and western mountainous areas showed an increasing trend, whereas that in the southern mountainous areas showed a slightly decreasing trend. The maximum temperature in all regions exhibited an upward trend. Among these variables, temperature and saturated water vapor pressure exerted a significant impact on NDSI. This study can provide a scientific basis for policy decision-making.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, snow cover, climate change, NDSI, multiple linear regression

张音, 孙从建, 刘庚, 钞锦龙, 耿甜伟. 近20 a塔里木河流域山区NDSI对气候变化的响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(10): 1639-1648.

ZHANG Yin, SUN Congjian, LIU Geng, CHAO Jinlong, GENG Tianwei. Response of NDSI in the Tarim River Basin mountainous areas to climate change over the past 20 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1639-1648.

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		β₁(AET)	β₂(PRE)	β₃(VPD)	β₄(SRAD)	β₅(TMMN)	β₆(TMMX)
北部	年均值	-0.13^*	0.48^*	0.89^*	-0.18^*	-0.60^*	-0.53^*
	春季	-0.16^*	-0.15^*	-0.16^*	0.40^*	0.26^*	-0.53^*
	夏季	-0.19^*	0.54^*	-0.37^*	-0.86^*	-1.94^*	3.48^*
	秋季	-0.24^*	-0.11^*	-1.09^*	-0.37^*	-0.64^*	1.95^*
	冬季	0.16^*	-0.34^*	-0.65^*	-0.14^*	-0.01	0.33^*
西部	年均值	-0.10^*	0.12^*	0.81^*	-0.88^*	-1.89^*	1.08^*
	春季	0.20^*	0.32^*	0.48^*	0.44^*	-1.22^*	0.45^*
	夏季	0.14^*	-0.02	0.84^*	-0.37^*	-1.73^*	1.17^*
	秋季	0.24^*	0.20^*	0.73^*	0.47^*	-0.82^*	-0.29
	冬季	0.00	0.18^*	0.51^*	-0.38^*	-2.63^*	2.39^*
南部	年均值	-0.32^*	0.21^*	0.84^*	-0.92^*	-2.32^*	1.68^*
	春季	0.32^*	-0.06^*	0.67^*	0.01	2.89^*	-3.85^*
	夏季	-0.14^*	-0.02	0.54^*	-0.32^*	1.13^*	-1.60^*
	秋季	0.12^*	-0.13^*	0.98^*	0.05^*	1.93^*	-3.15^*
	冬季	0.09^*	-0.01	-0.19^*	-0.03	0.11	0.01

近20 a塔里木河流域山区NDSI对气候变化的响应

Response of NDSI in the Tarim River Basin mountainous areas to climate change over the past 20 years

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