基于FLUS模型的汾河流域生态空间多情景模拟预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.27

干旱区研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 1152-1161.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.27

基于FLUS模型的汾河流域生态空间多情景模拟预测

苏迎庆¹(),刘庚¹,赵景波²,牛俊杰¹(),张恩月¹,郭利刚³,林菲¹

1.太原师范学院汾河流域科学发展研究中心,山西晋中 030619
2.陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安 710119
3.太原师范学院管理系,山西晋中 030619

收稿日期:2021-01-05 修回日期:2021-03-14 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2021-08-03
通讯作者: 牛俊杰
作者简介:苏迎庆(1994-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事资源环境评价与开发、生态承载力与生态安全研究. E-mail: 18234090836@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41171423);山西省软科学项目(2018041004-6);山西省自然科学基金项目(201901D111294);山西省人文社科重点基地项目(20190123);太原师范学院校级“1331”创新团队项目(院办字[2017]34号)

Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model

SU Yingqing¹(),LIU Geng¹,ZHAO Jingbo²,NIU Junjie¹(),ZHANG Enyue¹,GUO Ligang³,LIN Fei¹

1. Research Center for Scientific Development of Fenhe River Valley, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
2. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi, China
3. Department of Management, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China

Received:2021-01-05 Revised:2021-03-14 Online:2021-07-15 Published:2021-08-03
Contact: Junjie NIU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取汾河流域为研究区,基于2015年、2018年土地利用类型数据,并采用EES模型筛选了对应基准年的20项驱动因子数据,利用FLUS模型,在验证模型精度有效性的基础上,模拟预测了2024年、2030年生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及三生空间协调4种情景下汾河流域生态空间的时空演化特征及成因。结果表明:(1) 2018—2030年汾河流域生态空间呈现两类演变趋势,在生态空间优先、三生空间协调情景下呈现线性增长,分别增长5.92%、5.13%;生产空间优先、生活空间优先情景下呈现线性下降,分别下降9.40%、2.20%;生产、生活、生态空间用地结构比例维持4:1:5。(2) 时空格局上,生态空间位于流域边缘山区,生产、生活空间位于核心盆地,生态、生产、生活空间整体呈现依次嵌套的格局特征;生态空间核心区变化幅度较小,边缘区变化显著。(3) 2024年、2030年三生空间协调情景、生态空间优先情景下生态空间的演变趋势近似,受流域自然-社会发展趋势及国家政策影响,未来可利用后备土地资源有限,流域生态空间变化较小但也存在胁迫隐患。基于此,本文建议严格遵循“三线”(永久基本农田保护红线、生态保护红线、城镇开发边界线)基本原则,合理规划三生空间后备土地资源,对生态空间边缘区(生态敏感区)积极治理保育,核心区限制开发,促进流域科学发展。

关键词: 生态空间, 多情景模拟, FLUS模型, 汾河流域, 山西

Abstract:

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of watershed ecological space was conducted for the Fenhe River Basin to provide reference and guidance for the coordinated and sustainable development of watershed production-living-ecological space. An ecological-economic-social model was used with land use type data for 2015 and 2018, and 20 drivers were selected. The accuracy and effectiveness of the future land use simulation model was verified, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and drivers of ecological change in the Fenhe River Basin were simulated and predicted for 2024 and 2030 under four scenarios: production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority, and production-living-ecological space coordination. We found that the ecological space of the Fenhe River Basin presented two types of evolution trends from 2018 to 2030. It showed linear growth under the ecological space priority and production-living-ecological space coordination scenarios, with increases of 5.92% and 5.13%, respectively, while there was a linear decrease under the production space priority and living space priority scenarios, with decreases of 9.40% and 2.20%, respectively, and the proportion of production space, living space, and ecological space land structure maintained a ratio of 4:1:5. In the spatiotemporal pattern, the ecological space was located in the marginal mountainous area of the watershed, and the production space and living space were located in the core basin. The ecological space, production space, and living space as a whole present successively nested pattern characteristics. The range of change in the core area of the ecological space was small, and the change in the marginal area was significant. The evolution trend of ecological space under the production-living-ecological space coordination scenario and ecological space priority scenario was similar in 2024 and 2030. Affected by the natural-social development trend of the watershed and national policies, the available reserve land resources are predicted to be limited in the future, and the ecological space change of the watershed is predicted to be small, but there are also hidden threats. Therefore, we suggest strictly following the basic principles of three lines, the permanent basic farmland protection red line, ecological protection red line, and urban development boundary line, reasonably planning the reserve land resources of the production-living-ecological space, actively governing and conserving the ecological space edge areas (ecologically sensitive areas), restricting the development of core areas, and promoting the scientific development of watersheds.

Key words: ecological space, multi-scenario simulation, FLUS model, Fenhe River Basin, Shanxi

苏迎庆,刘庚,赵景波,牛俊杰,张恩月,郭利刚,林菲. 基于FLUS模型的汾河流域生态空间多情景模拟预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(4): 1152-1161.

SU Yingqing,LIU Geng,ZHAO Jingbo,NIU Junjie,ZHANG Enyue,GUO Ligang,LIN Fei. Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(4): 1152-1161.

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数据类型		指标	数据来源
基础数据	行政边界	山西省行政边界	2015年中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心(http://www.resdc.cn)
基础数据	土地利用	山西省土地利用数据	2015年、2018年中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心 (http://www.resdc.cn)(Landsat TM/ETM 30 m)
EES驱动因子	经济因子	经济密度/(10⁴元∙km^-2)	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》
		GDP增长率/%
		环保投资占GDP比例/%
	环境因子	高程/m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心(http://www.resdc.cn) 2000年山西省DEM30m(SRTM 30 m)
		坡度/(°)
		距河流/m
		人均水资源量/(人∙m^-3)	2015年、2018年《山西省水资源公报》
		土壤养分有效性^*	Har monized World Soil Database v 1.2(http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Research)2008年
		土壤根系氧利用率^*
		土壤过盐量^*
		土壤毒性^*
		土壤可利用度^*
		年均降水/mm	WorldClim version 2.0(http://www.worldclim.org/)2000年
		年均气温/℃	WorldClim version 2.0(http://www.worldclim.org/)2000年
		水土协调度/%	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》《山西省水资源公报》
	社会因子	人口自然增长率/‰	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》
		人口密度/(人∙km^-2)
		城市化率/%
		距主要交通干线/m	国家基础地理信息中心(www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/) 2015年1:1000000中国基础地理信息数据
		距主要居民点/m	国家基础地理信息中心(www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/) 2015年1:1000000中国基础地理信息数据

情景类型	转化成本及原则
生产空间优先	除建设用地,其他用地类型均可转换为耕地
生活空间优先	根据城市发展需求,按低等级用地到高等级单向转换原则,土地转换等级排序为:建设用地、耕地、林地、草地、水域及未利用土地
生态空间优先	同生活空间优先情景转换原则,各类用地的生态效益等级排序:林地、水域、草地、其他
三生空间协调	综合以上3种单一情景的发展需求,土地转换等级排序为:建设、林地、耕地、水域、草地及未利用土地

年份	情景	生产空间		生活空间		生态空间
年份	情景	耕地面积 /km²	占比/%	建设用地面积/km²	占比/%	林地面积 /km²	草地面积 /km²	水域面积 /km²	未利用地面积/km²	小计/km²	占比/%
2018	三生空间现状	15361.83	40.55	3132.99	8.27	10039.18	9042.80	302.18	4.81	19388.97	51.18
2024	生产空间优先	16126.38	42.58	3164.64	8.36	10155.47	8075.53	347.86	1.65	18580.50	49.06
	生活空间优先	14431.00	38.10	4225.55	11.16	10031.08	8839.96	342.16	1.27	19214.47	50.74
	生态空间优先	14371.78	37.95	3142.24	8.30	10178.88	9828.74	348.24	2.02	20357.88	53.75
	三生空间协调	14372.41	37.95	3233.22	8.54	9913.02	10004.89	346.21	1.90	20266.01	53.51
2030	生产空间优先	16272.16	42.96	3879.08	10.24	10243.41	7125.21	351.15	2.76	17722.53	46.80
	生活空间优先	13623.93	35.97	5276.97	13.93	10113.84	8514.24	342.16	1.27	18971.51	50.10
	生态空间优先	13445.25	35.50	3898.19	10.29	10317.82	9857.47	352.16	1.14	20528.59	54.21
	三生空间协调	13448.42	35.51	4045.86	10.68	9875.81	10152.18	348.74	0.76	20377.49	53.81

基于FLUS模型的汾河流域生态空间多情景模拟预测

Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model

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