干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 928-935.

• 气候及其灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

玛纳斯河流域绿洲沙尘暴趋势及其与气候因子的关系

 凌红波1,2, 徐海量1, 张青青1,2   

    1. 中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
    2. 中国科学院 研究生院，北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2010-07-26 修回日期:2011-02-22 出版日期:2011-11-15 发布日期:2012-01-16
  • 作者简介:凌红波（1983－）, 男, 河南商丘人, 在读博士, 主要从事生态水文研究.E-mail:linghongbo0929@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划（2009CB421308）；国家自然科学基金（41001066）共同资助

Trend of Sandstorm in the Manas River Basin Oasis and Its Correlation with Climatic Factors

 LING  Hong-Bo1,2, XU  Hai-Liang1, ZHANG  Qing-Qing1,2   

    1. ey Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    2. Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2010-07-26 Revised:2011-02-22 Published:2011-11-15 Online:2012-01-16

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摘要： 利用玛纳斯河流域绿洲区3个气象站1959-2007年的气象资料，借助小波分析、混沌理论R/S 分析和非参数检验等方法，分析沙尘暴频数的趋势、周期、混沌特性以及气候因子对沙尘暴的影响。结果表明：玛纳斯河流域绿洲沙尘暴频数呈减少趋势，并集中于春、夏两季；该流域绿洲沙尘暴频数存在明显的4年和17年周期性变化；根据R/S 分析，流域沙尘暴频数在未来的15年仍保持减少趋势；1959-2007年，流域内沙尘暴、蒸发量和大风日数减少趋势明显，且关联显著，而气温、降水量与最大日降水量表现为升高和增加走势，且关联性较差；流域绿洲沙尘暴频数与NAO指数在夏季存在显著的关联性。

关键词: 沙尘暴, 气候因子, 小波分析, 关联性, 玛纳斯河流域, 新疆

Abstract: he trends, periods and chaotic characteristics of sandstorm and the impacts of climatic factors on sandstorm variation were analyzed based on the meteorological data observed by 3 weather stations in the Manas River Bain oasis during the period of 1959-2007 and using the methods of wavelet analysis, chaotic theory, R/S analysis and nonparametric test. The results show that the sandstorm frequency was in a decrease trend, and sandstorm occurred mainly in spring and summer; there were the 4year and 17year periodic changes of sandstorm frequency in the Manas River Basin oasis; based on the R/S analysis, it is believable to predict that the decrease trend of sandstorm frequency will still maintained in next 15 years; there were the significant correlations between sandstorm and evaporation and gale, but the correlations between sandstorm and other climatic factors were not significant; the sandstorm is closely and significantly correlated with the NAO in summer.

Key words: sandstorm, climatic factor, wavelet analysis, correlation, Manas River Basin, Xinjiang

中图分类号: 

  • P425.5+5