Abstract:

In this paper, the 31 global climate models were integrated from the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to study the overall prediction of land use change in the Tianshan Mountains under three emission scenarios, i.e., the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. In the study, the observed climatic data from 53 meteorological stations, socioeconomic data and natural geomorphological conditions in the Tianshan Mountains were used. The results showed that:  ① FLUS model could be used to simulate the historical land use change in the study area with high accuracy;  ② Compared with the base period from 1970 to 1999, the average annual temperature would be increased by 1.67-2.16 ℃ during 2021-2050, and its increase would be low in spring and summer but high in autumn and winter. It was revealed that the average annual precipitation would be increased by 22-25 mm under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Under the three scenarios, precipitation reduction would occur in some years compared to the base period, but there would be holistically an increase trend;   ③ Compared with the situation of land use change in 2017, it was estimated that, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the glacier and snow areas in the Tianshan Mountainous in 2050 would be reduced by 29.2%, 34.6% and 38.4% respectively. The enlargement of urban land area in 2050 would not be significant under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Some of the cultivated land would be converted into urban land and grassland, and the area of woodland would be slightly enlarged. The urban land area under the RCP8.5 scenario would be nearly three times of that in 2017. Part of woodland would be converted into grassland. The total area of waters would be slightly enlarged, and the area of unused land will be in a reduction trend.

Key words: climate change')">

climate change, scenario simulation, land use change, FLUS model, Tianshan Mountainous