Abstract: Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. is an important species of vegetation in desert, and is also a preferred species for artificial sand-fixation and afforestation. This study was based on the geographical distribution of 119 geographical distribution data of C.mongolicum and 24 environmental variables. The effects of climate change and human activities on the distribution pattern of C.mongolicum were elucidated using the CMIP5 reduction global model data. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis means were used to develop the models of predicting suitable habitats of C.mongolicum under different climatic conditions and human activities so as to quantitatively demonstrate the different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) and the change of distribution pattern of C.mongolicum in China under climate change. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model was relatively high (the AUC values of the training data set and the test data set were 0.958 and 0.951 respectively). The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C.mongolicum were precipitation, topographical factors and elevation, and the disturbance of human activities made the suitable proportion of C.mongolicum decrease from 13.04% to 9.57%. The breeding habitat of C.mongolicum was negatively correlated with human activities. Under current climatic conditions, the proportions of total suitable area of C.mongolicum was 13.04%; in the three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the predicted proportions of total adaptive area would be 13.36%, 13.18% and 14.78% up to the 2050s, and they would be 13.39%, 12.76% and 12.71% up to the 2070s. The change of scope and area of adaptation is different.

Key words: Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., climate change, human activity, distribution pattern, China