climate change,scenario simulation,land use change,FLUS model,Tianshan Mountainous ,"/> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b>基于</b><b>FLUS</b><b>模型的天山山区未来土地利用变化预估</b>
干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 1270-1279.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2019.05.25

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于FLUS模型的天山山区未来土地利用变化预估

秦埼瑞1,2，李雪梅1,2，陈庆伟3，田亚林1,2   

  1. 1. 兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院，甘肃 兰州 730070； 2. 甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室，甘肃 兰州 730070； 3. 济南市交通局运输管理办公室，山东 济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-13 修回日期:2019-03-21 出版日期:2019-09-15 发布日期:2019-09-11
  • 通讯作者: 李雪梅
  • 作者简介:秦埼瑞（1993-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为气候变化和土地利用. E-mail：qinqirui1@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（41761014）；兰州交通大学“百名青年优秀人才培养计划”；兰州交通大学（201806）优秀平台支持资助

Estimation of Future Land Use Change in the Tianshan Mountainous Based on FLUS Model

QIN Qi-rui1, 2, LI Xue-mei1, 2, CHEN Qing-wei3, TIAN Ya-lin1, 2   

  1. 1.Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China; 2.Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China; 3.Transportation Management Office, Jinan Transportation Bureau, Jinan 250014,Shandong,China
  • Received:2018-11-13 Revised:2019-03-21 Online:2019-09-15 Published:2019-09-11

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摘要：

基于天山山区53个气象站点，31个CMIP5全球气候模式，集合逐年平均气候资料、社会经济和自然地形等资料，利用FLUS模型，预估了2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下天山山区土地利用变化。结果表明：① FLUS模型能够较好地模拟研究区历史土地利用变化，具有较高的模拟精度。② 与基准期（1970—1999年）相比，3种情景下多年平均气温升高了1.67~2.16 ℃，其中春季和夏季增温幅度较小，秋季和冬季增温幅度较大。多年平均降水量增加22~25 mm，3种情景下个别年份较基准期出现降水减少现象，但总体呈增加趋势。③ 2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5的预估结果与2017年实测土地利用结果相比，天山山区冰雪面积分别减少29.2%、34.6%、38.4%。前两种情景城市用地面积增幅不大，部分耕地转换为城市用地和草地，林地面积少量增加。而RCP8.5情景下城市用地面积为2017年的近3倍，部分林地转换为草地。3种情景下水体总面积略有增加，未利用地呈减少趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 情景模拟, 土地利用变化, FLUS模型, 天山山区

Abstract:

In this paper, the 31 global climate models were integrated from the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to study the overall prediction of land use change in the Tianshan Mountains under three emission scenarios, i.e., the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. In the study, the observed climatic data from 53 meteorological stations, socioeconomic data and natural geomorphological conditions in the Tianshan Mountains were used. The results showed that:  ① FLUS model could be used to simulate the historical land use change in the study area with high accuracy;  ② Compared with the base period from 1970 to 1999, the average annual temperature would be increased by 1.67-2.16 ℃ during 2021-2050, and its increase would be low in spring and summer but high in autumn and winter. It was revealed that the average annual precipitation would be increased by 22-25 mm under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Under the three scenarios, precipitation reduction would occur in some years compared to the base period, but there would be holistically an increase trend;   ③ Compared with the situation of land use change in 2017, it was estimated that, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the glacier and snow areas in the Tianshan Mountainous in 2050 would be reduced by 29.2%, 34.6% and 38.4% respectively. The enlargement of urban land area in 2050 would not be significant under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Some of the cultivated land would be converted into urban land and grassland, and the area of woodland would be slightly enlarged. The urban land area under the RCP8.5 scenario would be nearly three times of that in 2017. Part of woodland would be converted into grassland. The total area of waters would be slightly enlarged, and the area of unused land will be in a reduction trend.

Key words: climate change')">

climate change, scenario simulation, land use change, FLUS model, Tianshan Mountainous