近30 a来开都河上游径流量变化的气候响应

干旱区研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 743-748.

近30 a来开都河上游径流量变化的气候响应

王维霞^1,2, 王秀君^1,3, 姜逢清¹, 彭冬梅^1,2

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
3.美国马里兰大学地球科学交叉学科研究中心,美国马里兰州 20740

收稿日期:2012-05-22 修回日期:2012-11-19 发布日期:2013-07-29
通讯作者: 王秀君. E-mail: wwang@essic.umd.edu
作者简介:王维霞(1985-),女,硕士,主要从事气候变化与水文水资源方面研究. E-mail: wangwwx@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951001)

Response of Runoff Volume to Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin in Recent 30 Years

WANG Wei-xia^1,2, WANG Xiu-jun^1,3, JIANG Feng-qing¹, PENG Dong-mei^1,2

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, 20740, MD, USA

Received:2012-05-22 Revised:2012-11-19 Online:2013-07-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用巴音布鲁克水文站1980—2010年逐日径流量观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、多元回归分析等方法,研究了近30 a来开都河上游4—9月径流量的变化特征。同时,基于同期巴音布鲁克气象站气温、降水资料,探讨开都河上游气温与降水变化对春季径流量的影响。结果显示:开都河上游年径流量在过去30 a呈明显增加趋势。其中4—6月月平均径流量没有明显变化趋势,7—9月径流量增加明显。虽然年径流量主要分布在夏季,但年最大日径流量大多发生在春季4、5月份。进一步分析表明,前期冬季降水量与当年春季增温均对春季径流量有极显著的影响。

关键词: 径流量, 年最大日径流量, 气温, 降水, 开都河, 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州, 新疆

Abstract: The hydrological response to climate change has long been a focus in scientific community. There is an evidence of significant climate change over the past decades in northwest China. It is needed to assess the effects of the change of climate variables on hydrological cycle. In this paper, the daily data of runoff volume, air temperature and precipitation at Bayanbuluk Station in the Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang during the period of 1980-2010 were collected, and the trend analysis and correlation analysis were used in the study. The result showed that there was an increase trend of average annual runoff volume in recent 30 years. Holistically, there was a slight change of runoff volume during the period from April to June, but an increase during the period from July to September. Runoff formation occurred mainly in summer, the maximum daily runoff volume occurred mostly in spring, especially in April and May. Further analyses showed that there were the significant effects of precipitation during the period from October to next March and temperature increase in spring on the extreme hydrological events in spring.

Key words: runoff volume, maximum daily runoff volume, air temperature, precipitation, Kaidu River Basin, Bayingolin, Xinjiang

王维霞, 王秀君, 姜逢清, 彭冬梅. 近30 a来开都河上游径流量变化的气候响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(4): 743-748.

WANG Wei-xia, WANG Xiu-jun, JIANG Feng-qing, PENG Dong-mei. Response of Runoff Volume to Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin in Recent 30 Years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(4): 743-748.

参考文献

[1] 张雪芹,孙杨,毛炜峄,等.中国干旱区气温变化对全球变暖的区域响应[J]. 干旱区研究,2010,27(4):592-599.
[Zhang Xueqin,Sun Yang,Mao Weiyi,et al.Regional response of temperature change in the arid regions of China to global warming[J]. Arid Zone Research,2010,27(4):592-599]
[2] 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土,2002,24(3):199-225.
[Shi Yafeng,Shen Yongping,Hu Ruji.Preliminary study on signal,impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciolgy and Geocryology,2002,24(3):199-225.]
[3] 郭慕萍,王志伟,秦爱民,等.54年来中国西北地区降水量的变化[J]. 干旱区研究,2009,26(1):120-125.
[Guo Muping,Wang Zhiwei,Qin Aimin,et al.Changes in precipitation in northwest China over the last 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(1):120-125.]
[4] 张天峰,王劲松,张洪芬,等.中国西北地区与东部季风区秋季气温对比[J]. 干旱区研究,2010,27(1):121-127.
[Zhang Tianfeng,Wang Jinsong,Zhang Hongfen,et al.Comparison of autumn temperatures between arid area of northwest China and monsoon area of east China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2010,27(1):121-127.]
[5] Barnrtt T P,Adam J C,Lettenmaier D P.Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions[J]. Nature,2005,438:303-309.
[6] 王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性[J]. 水科学进展,2011,22(5):307-314.
[Wang Guoqing,Zhang Jianyun,Liu Jiufu,et al.The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in different climatic regions in China[J]. Advances in Water Science,2011,22(5):307-314.]
[7] 贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.新疆气候变化研究进展[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(3):499-508.
[He Jinyun,Zhang Mingjun,Wang Peng,et al.New progress of the study on climate change in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(3):499-508.]
[8] Zhang Y W,Wei W S,Jiang F Q,et al.Brief communication“Assessment of change in temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang,China”[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2012,12(5):1 327-1 331.
[9] Jiang F Q,Hu R J,Wang S P,et al.Trends of precipitation extremes during 1960-2008 in Xinjiang,the northwest China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2012,111(1/2):133-148.
[10] 薛燕,韩萍,冯国华.半个世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究,2003,20(2):127-130.
[Xue Yan,Han Ping,Feng Guohua.Change trend of the precipitation and air temperature in Xinjiang since recent 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2003,20(2):127-130.]
[11] 陈曦.中国干旱区自然地理[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2012.
[Chen Xi.Physical Geography of Arid Land in China[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2010.]
[12] 史秀英,李勇.开都河流域区径流时空分布特征分析[J]. 地下水,2010,32(5):116-117.
[Shi Xiuying,Li Yong.The time-space distribution of runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang[J] .Ground Water,2010,32(5):116-117.]
[13] 钟瑞森,吴彬.开都河径流年内分配特征研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2011,30(2):123-126.
[Zhong Ruisen,Wu Bin.Annual distribution characteristic of runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2011,30(2):123-126.]
[14] 张一驰,李宝林,程维明,等.开都河流域径流对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 资源科学,2004,26(6):69-76.
[Zhang Yichi,Li Baolin,Cheng Weiming,et al.Hydrological response of runoff to climate variation in Kaidu catchment[J]. Resources Science,2004,26(6):69-76.]
[15] Yang Q,Cui C X.Impact of climate change on the surface water of Kaidu River Basin[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2005,15(1):20-28.
[16] 陶辉,宋郁东,邹世平.开都河天山出山径流量年际变化特征与洪水频率分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2007,30(1):43-48.
[Tao Hui,Song Yudong,Zou Shiping.Variation charcateristics of mountainous runoff in the Kaidu River Basin,Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography,2007,30(1):43-48.]
[17] Xu J H, Chen Y N,Ji M H,et al.Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2008,18(4):331-339.
[18] 陶辉,王国亚,邵春,等.开都河源区气候变化及径流响应[J]. 冰川冻土,2007,29(3):413-417.
[Tao Hui,Wang Guoya,Shao Chun,et al.Climate change and its effects on runoff at the headwater of Kaidu River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2007,29(3):413-417.]
[19] Li X M,Li L H,Guo L P,et al.Impact of climate change factors on runoff in Kaidu River watershed of 50-year data[J]. Journal of Arid Land,2011,3(2):132-140.
[20] 李倩,李兰海,包安明.开都河流域积雪特征变化及其与径流的关系[J]. 资源科学,2012,34(1):91-97.
[Li Qian,Li Lanhai,Bao Anming.Snow cover change and impact on streamflow in the Kaidu River Basin[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(1):91-97.]
[21] 王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.开都河流域上下游过去50 a气温降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2012,35(5):746-753.
[Wang Weixia,Wang Xiujun,Jiang Fengqing,et al.Temperature and precipitation along the Kaidu River over the past 50 years[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):746-753.]
[22] 夏军,左其亭,邵明诚.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用:理论·方法·实践[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2003.
[Xia Jun,Zuo Qiting,Shao Mingcheng.Theory,Method and Practice on Water Recourses Sustainable Utilization in Lake Bosten[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2003.]