干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 998-1004.

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

滦河流域径流的长期演变规律及其驱动因子

王刚1, 严登华1, 黄站峰1,2, 金鑫1,3, 朴树明4   

    1. 中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所，北京 100038
    2. 长江勘测规划设计研究院，武汉 430010
    3. 大连理工大学 水利工程学院，辽宁 大连 116023
    4. 承德市水务局，河北 承德 067000
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-10 修回日期:2011-04-25 出版日期:2011-11-15 发布日期:2012-01-16
  • 作者简介:王刚（1985-），男，河南平顶山人，硕士研究生，主要从事水资源与水环境综合调控研究.E-mail：hanhehebest@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2006CB403402-3）；国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目（50721006）；水利部公益性行业科研专项项目（2008010015）

Analysis on the Long-term Evolution of Runoff Volume and Its Affecting Factors in the Luanhe River Basin

 WANG  Gang1, YAN  Deng-Hua1, HUANG  Zhan-Feng1,2, JIN  Xin1,3, Piao  Shu-Ming4   

    1. Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    2. Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan 430010, China
    3. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning Province, China
    4. Chengde Bureau of Water Resources, Chengde 067000, Hebei Province, China
  • Received:2010-11-10 Revised:2011-04-25 Published:2011-11-15 Online:2012-01-16

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被引次数

18

摘要： 根据滦河主要代表站三道河子、潘家口水库、滦县1956-2008年天然径流资料，应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、功率谱分析等数理统计方法，分析滦河径流的历史演变规律。同时，选用代表气象站1957-2008年气象资料以及1985-2000年土地利用数据，对径流变化的驱动因子进行分析。结果表明：滦河径流整体上呈减少趋势，其中上游减少达到显著水平；汛期径流减少趋势不明显，而汛前及汛后径流减少有增强趋势，说明干旱、洪涝等水文过程发生频率加大；滦河径流在1959年发生一次减少突变，第二次减少突变发生在1996年，20世纪80年代末径流有所增加，1998年后呈现明显的减少趋势；滦河径流存在16年变化周期，中、下游径流还存在9～10年和2～3年较显著周期，上游径流存在64年长显著周期。降水与蒸发是影响径流变化的主要因素，地表覆被变化也对径流变化产生重大影响。

关键词: 河川径流, 土地利用, 驱动因子, Mann-Kendall检验方法, 滦河, 河北

Abstract: Based on the data of runoff volume in the Luanhe River Basin during the period of 1956-2008, the M-K test and power spectrum analysis were used to analyze the evolution of runoff volume in the Luanhe River Basin. Meteorological data observed by 9 meteorological stations during the period of 1957-2008 and the land use data during the period of 1985-2000 were used to identify the factors affecting the change of runoff volume. The results show that the runoff volume was holistically in a decrease trend, especially in the upper reaches. The decrease trend was more significant during the low-flow periods, which indicates that drought and flood may occur more frequently．The results also show that the runoff volume was sharply decreased in 1959 and 1996, increased in the late-1980s, and decreased again after 1998. There was a 16-year periodicity of runoff volume change in the Luanhe River Basin and a 64-year one in the upper reaches, and there were also the 9-10-year 2-3-year periodicities in the middle and lower reaches. The most important climate factors affecting runoff volume were precipitation and evaporation, and then land use cover change.

Key words: runoff volume, land use, affecting factor, M-K test, Luanhe River, Hebei Province

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