干旱区土地利用变化对耕地空间的影响及预测——以昌吉市为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.11.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究土地利用变化对耕地空间的影响，为优化土地利用格局，加强耕地保护提供参考。基于2000—2020年5期土地利用数据，引入土地利用变化强度分析框架、PLUS模型和空间自相关分析方法，探究昌吉市未来土地利用变化对耕地空间的影响。结果表明：昌吉市土地利用类型以草地、耕地、未利用地为主，耕地和建设用地呈持续增长的变化趋势，林草地向耕地和建设用地、耕地向建设用地的转换是昌吉市土地利用变化的主要特征；在转换强度上，各地类与耕地的转换强度存在明显差异，耕地与建设用地之间转入与转出强度均高于平均转换强度，其用地转换会对区域土地利用覆被结构产生较大影响；PLUS模型模拟结果显示，自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和可持续发展情境下，耕地面积分别减少36.21 km²、增加28.19 km²、减少25.66 km²，可持续发展情景更能兼顾经济发展与耕地保护的双重诉求；耕地格局变化具有明显的空间集聚特征，且以高-高集聚为主，主要分布在中部的榆树沟镇、二六工镇、大西渠镇以及主城区西南部的三工镇，不同情景下高-高集聚的空间分布基本类似，但类型数量存在差异。最后从协调耕地保护与经济发展、优化用地空间布局等方面提出相关建议，研究结果为干旱区绿洲城市平衡经济发展与耕地保护关系提供参考。

关键词: 城镇化, 耕地保护, 强度分析, PLUS模型, 空间自相关, 昌吉

Abstract:

This study aimed to explore the impact of land use change on the space of arable land and provide a reference to optimize the land use pattern and strengthen arable land protection. Based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the framework of land use change intensity analysis, PLUS model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis method were introduced to explore the impacts of future land use changes on the space of arable land in Changji City. The study found that land use types in Changji City were dominated by grassland, arable land, and unused land; arable and construction lands displayed a changing trend of continuous growth, and the conversion of forest and grassland to arable and construction lands and of arable land to construction land was the main feature of land use change in Changji City. Regarding conversion intensity, apparent differences were observed in the conversion intensity of each type of arable land, and the intensity of transferring in and out of the conversion intensity between arable and construction land was higher than the average. Regarding the conversion intensity, evident differences were observed in the conversion intensity between each category and arable land, and the conversion intensity between arable and construction lands was higher than the average conversion intensity; the conversion of its land use will have a more significant impact on the regional land use cover structure. The simulation results of the PLUS model indicated that the area of arable land in the natural development, arable land protection, and sustainable development scenarios decreased by 36.21 km², increased by 28.19 km², and decreased by 25.66 km², respectively; the sustainable development scenario was more able to consider the dual demands of economic development and arable land protection. Changes in the pattern of arable land have prominent spatial agglomeration characteristics; they are dominated by high-high agglomeration, mainly distributed in Yushugou Town, Erliugong Town, Daxiqiu Town in the central part of the city and Sanguo Town in the southwestern part of the major city. The spatial distributions of high-high agglomeration are basically similar in different scenarios, but differences exist in the number of types. Finally, relevant suggestions were made to coordinate the protection of arable land with economic development and optimize the spatial layout of land use. The results can provide a reference for balancing the relationship between financial development and arable land protection in oasis cities in arid zones.

Key words: urbanization, cropland protection, intensity analysis, PLUS model, spatial autocorrelation, Changji

苏泽琛, 邵战林. 干旱区土地利用变化对耕地空间的影响及预测——以昌吉市为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(11): 1936-1945.

SU Zechen, SHAO Zhanlin. Influence and prediction of land use change on the space of arable land in arid zones: Taking Changji City as an example[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(11): 1936-1945.

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类型	数据名称	分辨率	来源
土地利用数据	土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源与环境数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
自然因素数据	高程、坡度、坡向	250 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
	年均温度、降水	1 km	中国科学院资源与环境数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
	土壤类型	1 km	中国科学院资源与环境数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
社会经济数据	人口、GDP	1 km	中国科学院资源与环境数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
可达性数据	距居民点的距离	30 m	OpenStreeMap（http://www.openstreetmap.ch），使用ArcGIS计算欧式距离
	距城市道路的距离	30 m
	距高速、国道、省道、县道、铁路的距离	30 m
	距河流的距离	30 m

发展情景	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
自然发展情景	0.680	0.356	0.250	0.371	0.850	0.400
耕地保护情景	0.707	0.389	0.200	0.401	0.538	0.557
可持续发展情景	0.694	0.386	0.200	0.397	0.538	0.557

土地利用类型		2020年
土地利用类型		耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	汇总	转出总量
2000年	耕地	1050.13	0.00	80.97	6.28	88.76	3.31	1229.45	179.32
	林地	31.83	145.10	402.37	0.00	1.44	10.49	591.24	446.13
	草地	210.65	55.63	2943.63	6.00	51.63	251.39	3518.93	575.30
	水域	14.89	0.02	27.82	50.31	5.01	131.92	229.98	179.66
	建设用地	22.85	0.00	5.46	0.53	50.68	0.00	79.15	28.84
	未利用地	143.92	0.00	174.39	3.34	1.21	1999.01	2321.87	322.86
	汇总	1474.26	200.75	3634.64	66.47	198.74	2396.12	7970.98	1732.11
	转入总量	424.14	200.75	691.01	16.15	148.05	397.11	1732.11

发展情景	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	总面积
自然发展情景	1438.05	195.41	3076.10	58.40	273.34	2929.68	7970.98
耕地保护情景	1502.45	195.23	3050.76	58.32	240.61	2923.62	7970.98
可持续发展情景	1448.60	195.45	3081.06	58.36	257.16	2930.35	7970.98

集聚类型	自然发展情景/个	耕地保护情景/个	可持续发展情景/个
不显著	2045	2062	2049
高-高集聚	118	94	109
高-低集聚	0	4	0
低-高集聚	36	39	41
低-低集聚	0	0	0