塔里木盆地沙尘天气日数变化及影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于塔里木盆地32个气象站点1964—2022年观测数据，采用Sen+M-K趋势分析、重心移动模型、标准化回归系数和空间聚类方法，从空间特征角度着重分析塔里木盆地不同类型沙尘年日数的变化、趋势和移动规律，以及影响因素的贡献率。结果表明：（1）盆地以浮尘为主，其次是扬沙、沙尘暴，总体呈现南多北少的空间分布格局，且具有显著下降趋势。（2）盆地不同类型沙尘日数的重心呈向东南部移动的趋势，其中沙尘暴重心移动幅度最大。（3）气温升高、风速降低和大风日数减少是塔里木盆地沙尘日数减少的主要影响因素，降水量影响最小。（4）降水量对沙尘变化的贡献率高值聚集在盆地西部，平均气温和平均最高气温分别在盆地南部和西部，而大风日数和平均风速分别在盆地西北部和东南部。研究结果可为塔里木盆地有针对性的制定区域适用性防风固沙措施提供科学依据。

关键词: 沙尘日数, 重心移动模型, 影响因素, 贡献率, 空间聚类, 塔里木盆地

Abstract:

This study used the Sen+M-K trend analysis, the gravity center movement model, the standardized regression coefficient, and the spatial clustering methods to reveal the spatial characteristics of the variation, trends, and movement of dust days of various types and the contribution rate of their influencing factors in the Tarim Basin based on the annual data of 32 meteorological stations between 1964 and 2022. The results indicated: (1) Floating dust, followed by blowing sand and sandstorms, dominate the Tarim Basin, showing a spatial distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, and the dust days of various types show significantly decreasing trends. (2) The gravity centers of dust days of various types in the Tarim Basin tended to move southeast, and the gravity center of sandstorm days moved the most. (3) Warmer temperatures, lower wind speeds, and fewer gale days were the main factors in the decreased dust days in the Tarim Basin, whereas precipitation had the least influence. (4) The high contribution rates of precipitation to dust days are clustered in the western part of the Tarim Basin, mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in the southern and western parts, respectively, and gale days and mean wind speed in the northwestern and southeastern parts, respectively. This study’s results can provide a scientific basis for developing regionally applicable wind-breaking and sand-fixing measures in the Tarim Basin.

Key words: dust days, gravity center movement model, influencing factor, contribution rate, spatial clustering, Tarim Basin

程红霞, 林粤江, 陈鹏, 梁凤超, 王勇. 塔里木盆地沙尘天气日数变化及影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(11): 1707-1717.

CHENG Hongxia, LIN Yuejiang, CHEN Peng, LIANG Fengchao, WANG Yong. Spatial characteristics of sand-dust weather days and influencing factors in the Tarim Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(11): 1707-1717.

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	均值 /（d·a^-1）	增加趋势站点数量	减少趋势站点数量	显著增加趋势		显著减少趋势
	均值 /（d·a^-1）	增加趋势站点数量	减少趋势站点数量	站点数量	均值/（d·a^-1）	站点数量	均值/（d·a^-1）
浮尘日数	-0.98	2	30	1	0.53	28	-1.13
扬沙日数	-0.57	2	30	2	0.19	27	-0.68
沙尘暴日数	-0.22	1	31	0		28	-0.25
沙尘天气日数	-1.16	2	30	1	0.72	29	-1.30

	平均气温	平均最高气温	平均最低气温	降水量	年降水日数	大风日数	平均风速
扬沙	23.89	17.04	17.76	5.61	7.70	11.07	16.93
浮尘	26.43	15.14	18.36	5.94	5.09	16.28	12.76
沙尘暴	20.52	11.86	18.57	6.50	5.81	22.55	14.19
沙尘天气	22.72	16.33	17.92	5.36	6.64	13.09	17.94