1960—2020年黄河流域气候生长季时空演变及成因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.01

干旱区研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10): 1537-1546.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.01 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20231001

1960—2020年黄河流域气候生长季时空演变及成因分析

张志高¹(),孙梓欣²,张秀丽³,郭可欣⁴,李卓娅¹,郝海姣¹,蔡茂堂⁵()

1.安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院，河南安阳 455000
2.河南大学地理与环境学院，河南开封 475004
3.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心，河南开封 475001
4.西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院，四川成都 610500
5.中国地质科学院地质力学研究所，北京 100081

收稿日期:2023-01-30 修回日期:2023-05-24 出版日期:2023-10-15 发布日期:2023-11-01
作者简介:张志高（1986-），男，博士，副教授，主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail: Zhangzhg06@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42272112);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022BJJ003);河南省科技攻关项目(232102320024);河南省科技攻关项目(232102321109);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师项目(2020GGJS188);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A170008);安阳市科技计划项目(2022C01NY019);安阳市科技计划项目(2021C01NY035)

Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors during the climatic growing season in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020

ZHANG Zhigao¹(),SUN Zixin²,ZHANG Xiuli³,GUO Kexin⁴,LI Zhuoya¹,HAO Haijiao¹,CAI Maotang⁵()

1. School of Resources Environment and Tourism, Anyang Normal University, Anyang 455000, Henan, China
2. School of Geography and Environment, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
3. Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development Research Center, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China
4. College of Earth Science and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
5. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2023-01-30 Revised:2023-05-24 Published:2023-10-15 Online:2023-11-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1960—2020年黄河流域89个气象站点资料，采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析和相关分析等方法对黄河流域生长季始期（GSS）、生长季末期（GSE）、生长季长度（GSL）、生长季内≥10 ℃活动积温（AT10）和≥10 ℃活动积温天数（DT10）的时空变化特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：（1）1960—2020年黄河流域GSS显著提前[-2.04 d·(10a)^-1]，GSE呈推迟趋势[0.85 d·(10a)^-1]，GSL显著延长[2.88 d·(10a)^-1]，但区域差异较大，下游GSS开始最早（2月23），上游最晚（3月30），上游GSE结束最早（10月24），下游最晚（11月30），下游GSL最长为334.03 d，上游最短为297.33 d。（2）近61 a黄河流域GSL的显著延长主要源于GSS的显著提前。（3）近61 a来黄河流域生长季指标存在28 a左右的周期变化，GSS、AT10和DT10于1998年发生突变，GSL于2002年发生突变。（4）黄河流域上、中、下游地区生长季指标变化趋势一致，下游地区变化幅度最大，上游地区次之，中游地区变幅最小。（5）相关分析表明，近61 a来黄河流域GSS提前主要与春季升温有关，GSE延迟主要源于秋季增温，上游和下游地区GSL延长主要源于春季增温，中游地区GSL延长主要与秋季变暖有关。

关键词: 生长季, 时空演变, 变化趋势, 季节温度, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Data from 89 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020 was used in this investigation. The Mann-Kendall mutation test as well as Morlet wavelet and correlation analyses were conducted to assess the spatial and temporal change characteristics and influencing factors at the beginning of the growing season (GSS), the end of the growing season (GSE), and the length of the growing season (GSL), as well as days with an active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ (AT10) and active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ (DT10) during the growing season. From 1960 to 2020 the GSS significantly advanced at a rate of -2.04 d·(10a)^-1, while the GSE showed a delayed trend with a change rate of 0.85 d·(10a)^-1, and the GSL was significantly prolonged at a rate of 2.88 d·(10a)^-1; there were also significant regional differences. The GSS in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin was the earliest (February 23), while that in the upper reaches was the latest (March 30). Furthermore, the GSE in the upper reaches ended early (October 24), while that in the lower reaches was the latest (November 30), and the GSL in lower reaches was the longest (334.03 d), while that in the upper reaches was the shortest (297.33 d). The significant extension of GSL was mainly due to the significant advance of GSS. Over the past 61 years, the growth season indices were found to have a main period of approximately 28 a in the Yellow River Basin. GSS, AT10, and DT10 mutated in 1998, and GSL mutated in 2002. The changing trends for the growth season indices in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were consistent, with the largest change occurring in the lower reaches, followed by the upper and middle reaches, respectively. Correlation analyses showed that GSS advances in the Yellow River Basin were mainly related to spring warming over the past 61 years, and the delay of GSE was mainly due to autumn warming, the extension of GSL in the upstream and downstream areas was mainly due to spring warming, and the extension of GSL into the middle reaches was mainly related to autumn warming.

Key words: growing season, spatial-temporal variations, trend, seasonal temperature, the Yellow River Basin

张志高, 孙梓欣, 张秀丽, 郭可欣, 李卓娅, 郝海姣, 蔡茂堂. 1960—2020年黄河流域气候生长季时空演变及成因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(10): 1537-1546.

ZHANG Zhigao, SUN Zixin, ZHANG Xiuli, GUO Kexin, LI Zhuoya, HAO Haijiao, CAI Maotang. Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors during the climatic growing season in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1537-1546.

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年代	GSS		GSE		GSL		AT10		DT10
年代	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平
1961—1970	79	3	309	-1	231	-4	3157	-109	183	-5
1971—1980	81	5	309	-1	229	-6	3146	-120	182	-6
1981—1990	81	5	309	-1	229	-6	3141	-125	183	-5
1991—2000	75	-1	311	1	237	2	3272	6	187	-1
2001—2010	70	-6	311	1	242	7	3424	158	196	8
2011—2020	71	-5	313	3	243	8	3467	201	196	8

地区	GSS		GSE		GSL		AT10		DT10
地区	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[℃·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]
上游	88.81	-2.00	297.33	1.02	208.02	3.02	2472.16	73.33	156.31	3.69
中游	66.73	-1.96	318.03	0.60	252.30	2.57	3732.24	66.10	207.89	2.90
下游	53.63	-2.70	334.03	1.48	281.40	4.18	4619.85	82.95	232.88	3.15

地区	GSS				GSE				GSL
地区	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
黄河流域	-0.65^**	-0.54^**	-0.44^**	-0.40^**	0.29^*	0.22	0.75^**	0.51^**	0.66^**	0.53^**	0.69^**	0.55^**
上游	-0.83^**	-0.63^**	-0.43^**	-0.38^**	0.31^*	0.40^**	0.82^**	0.52^**	0.80^**	0.69^**	0.73^**	0.55^**
中游	-0.55^**	-0.43^**	-0.38^**	-0.27^*	0.18	0.02	0.66^**	0.36^**	0.52^**	0.35^**	0.62^**	0.39^**
下游	-0.34^**	-0.13	-0.19	-0.31	0.26^*	0.03	0.42^**	0.32^*	0.41^**	0.12	0.37^**	0.28^*

1960—2020年黄河流域气候生长季时空演变及成因分析

Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors during the climatic growing season in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020

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生长季指标	趋势检验通过率/%	趋势增加个数	显著增加个数	趋势减少个数	显著减少个数
GSS	71.9	0	0	89	65
GSE	80.9	82	71	7	1
GSL	80.9	88	72	1	0
AT10	93.3	89	83	0	0
DT10	79.8	88	71	1	0

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