基于MSWEP降水产品的新疆干旱时空特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于新疆降水站点稀少且分布不均,且现有站点干旱监测资料空间代表性不足,利用遥感降水产品具有覆盖面广、空间分辨率高、时效性好等优点,对于新疆干旱监测研究具有重要意义,Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation(MSWEP)多源遥感降水融合产品在世界各地得到广泛应用。气候变暖背景下,新疆降水变率增加,干旱事件频发,以新疆106个气象站点资料为依据,在对MSWEP降水产品进行误差评估的基础上,结合标准化降水指数SPI,应用MSWEP遥感降水产品,对新疆1980—2021年间干湿变化、干旱事件及其基本特征进行研究。结果表明：（1） MSWEP与站点观测资料的相关性较高（>0.8）,MSWEP精度基本满足干旱监测需求;（2）近42 a新疆干湿变化以变湿为主;（3） 1980年以来,干旱事件频发且特征各异。识别到13次较大干旱事件,1985—1987年发生的干旱事件为近42 a来最严重干旱事件,2009年5—10月发生的干旱事件为强度最高的短时干旱事件;（4）干旱事件的持续时间、强度、严重度等特征各异,部分事件持续时间短但强度高,部分事件持续时间长但强度偏低。总之,MSWEP遥感降水产品为缺资料地区的干旱监测提供了重要数据支撑。

关键词: MSWEP, 干旱监测, 干旱事件, 时空特征, 新疆

Abstract:

Meteorological stations in Xinjiang are sparse and unevenly distributed, resulting in drought monitoring based on in-situ observations in Xinjiang which are insufficient in spatial representativeness. Remote-sensed precipitation products have the advantages of wide coverage, high spatial resolution, and timeliness compared to data from stations. Thus, remote-sensed precipitation products are important for drought monitoring in Xinjiang with scarce in-situ observations. Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) has been applied in various applications worldwide. With the foundation of global climate change, Xinjiang has experienced an increasing trend in the frequency of droughts and the variability of precipitation. This paper evaluates the accuracy of the MSWEP products using data from 106 observatories. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), MSWEP was adopted to study the temporal variations in dry/wet conditions, identify drought events, and study drought characteristics in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2021. The main results were as follows: (1) MSWEP was highly correlated with data from in-situ stations (>0.8), which supports its application in drought monitoring. (2) Xinjiang had become more humid in the studied period. (3) Thirteen severe drought events were identified since 1980. Among them, the one from 1985 to 1987 was the most severe, and the one from May-October, 2009, was the most intense. (4) Drought events have various features in duration, intensity, and severity. Some droughts were intense with a short duration, while others were long and more severe. Overall, MSWEP has a high potential for drought monitoring, especially for regions where ground-based observatories are scarce. Based on MSWEP, Xinjiang was found to experience a wetting trend and frequent drought events with different characteristics.

Key words: MSWEP, drought monitoring, drought event, spatiotemporal characteristics, Xinjiang

王姣妍. 基于MSWEP降水产品的新疆干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1398-1409.

WANG Jiaoyan. Study on spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Xinjiang based on Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation multi-source merged precipitation product[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1398-1409.

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SPI值	干湿分类	发生概率/%
>2	极端湿润	2.3
1.5~2	重度湿润	4.4
1~1.5	中度湿润	9.2
0~1	轻微湿润	34.1
-1~0	轻微干旱	34.1
-1.5~-1	中度干旱	9.2
-2~-1.5	重度干旱	4.4
<-2	极端干旱	2.3

典型干旱事件	开始时间 /年-月	结束时间 /年-月	峰值时间 /年-月	持续时间/月	强度	峰值	严重度
	1980-03	1981-06	1980-07	16	0.55	1.76	8.79
典型干旱事件1	1982-11	1987-03	1985-09	53	0.85	2.79	45.08
	1988-08	1989-07	1989-05	12	0.74	2.21	8.88
	1990-10	1991-07	1991-07	10	0.36	1.02	3.64
	1991-09	1992-05	1991-11	9	0.50	2.10	4.53
典型干旱事件2	1995-03	1995-08	1995-06	6	1.09	1.59	6.53
	1996-10	1998-04	1997-11	19	0.92	2.73	17.43
	2001-02	2001-08	2001-05	7	0.56	1.05	3.89
典型干旱事件3	2003-12	2005-04	2004-10	17	0.39	1.01	6.70
	2006-04	2007-06	2006-10	15	0.51	1.35	7.69
	2007-10	2009-01	2008-07	16	0.64	1.60	10.30
典型干旱事件4	2009-05	2009-10	2009-08	6	1.18	2.14	7.09
	2020-06	2021-02	2020-10	9	0.51	1.19	4.63