绿洲耗水对阿克苏河流域地表径流的影响

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用高分辨率辐射计获得的遥感资料提取研究区的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,干旱区绿洲NDVI对径流响应敏感,根据经验,NDVI>0.2区域识别为绿洲,进一步提取绿洲范围内的NDVI累计数据,将其作为以农业活动为主的人类活动综合因素,结合径流资料,分析了1982—2006年阿克苏河流域绿洲耗水和地表径流之间的关系。结果表明:1982—2006年阿克苏河流域出山径流量相对研究初期增加21.4%,同期,绿洲耗水量相对增加53.2%,绿洲NDVI累计相对研究初期增加35.3%,绿洲面积增加33.4%;阿拉尔站径流量、绿洲耗水与绿洲来水量均呈正相关,表明中游绿洲扩张消耗的出山径流量增加;绿洲NDVI累计自河道向两侧变化剧烈程度逐步加强。同时,绿洲NDVI累计整体上从绿洲边缘向绿洲内部增加趋势逐步加强;考虑绿洲降水情景,NDVI累计和绿洲面积的相关性均大于未考虑绿洲降水情景,表明降水对绿洲起到了支撑、维护作用,对绿洲面积的贡献为25.2%。对比冰川径流、出山径流和流域降水的变差系数(C_v),加上冰川径流对绿洲面积的贡献为33.4%,表明冰川径流有调节出山径流量和维持绿洲规模相对稳定的作用。

关键词: 绿洲, 耗水量, NDVI, 地表径流量, 降水量, 阿克苏河流域

Abstract: Based on the remote sensing data derived with the advanced very high resolution radiometers, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in an arid oasis is of sensitive response to surface runoff.According to the experience, a region with NDVI value > 0.2 is recognized as an oasis, so the oasis in the Aksu River Basin is also recognized based on its total accumulative NDVI.In this paper, the total accumulative NDVI was substituted for the index of human activities dominated by farming.Based on the data of surface runoff volume, the relationship between human activities and surface runoff in oasis in the Aksu River Basin during the period from 1982 to 2006 was analyzed.Results revealed that, during the period from 1982 to 2006, the mountainous runoff volume in the Aksu River Basin was increased by 21.4% compared with that at the beginning of the study, water consumption in the oasis was increased by 53.2%, total accumulative NDVI of the oasis was increased by 35.3%, and the oasis area was enlarged by 33.4%.There were the positive correlations among the runoff volume at Aral, water consumption and stream inflow in the oasis, which revealed that the increased water consumption was mainly caused by the oasis expansion in middle reaches of the Aksu River Basin.The change of total accumulative NDVI of the oasis was gradually accelerated from the central area to the marginal zone of the oasis.In the same period, the trend of total accumulative NDVI was gradually intensified from the marginal zone to the central area of the oasis.According to the correlations among the total accumulative NDVI of the oasis, stream inflow and water consumption in the oasis, precipitation in the oasis could not be ignored, which means that precipitation in the oasis was of support and maintenance function for stability of the oasis, and the contribution of precipitation in the oasis was 25.2%.Among the variation coefficients of glacier runoff and mountainous runoff volumes as well as precipitation in the basin, the contribution of glacier runoff in the oasis was 33.4%, which showed that glacier runoff was of the functions of adjusting runoff and maintaining a stable oasis scale.Moreover, under climate change in the future, the relationship between surface runoff and oasis scale in the Aksu River Basin was further analyzed.The results show that temperature is the main factor affecting surface runoff regardless at present or in the future.It is estimated that the lacier runoff volume will be decreased under climate change in the future, and oasis scale will be expanded except the scenarios that temperature will be stable and precipitation will be increased by 10%, 20% and 30%.It is also estimated that the water consumption in the oasis will be increased significantly, and it will be much higher than the mountainous runoff volume, which will cause an obvious reduction of runoff volume at Aral, so it will be very necessary to control water consumption in the Aksu River Basin so as to achieve a sustainable development in the whole Tarim River Basin.

Key words: oasis, water consumption, NDVI, surface runoff volume, precipitation, Aksu River Basin

王生霞, 叶柏生, 丁永建, 赵传成, 秦甲. 绿洲耗水对阿克苏河流域地表径流的影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(2): 203-210.

WANG Sheng-xia, YE Bai-sheng, DING Yong-jian, ZHAO Chuan-cheng, QIN Jia. The Effect of Water Consumption on Surface Runoff in Oasis in the Aksu River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(2): 203-210.

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