干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 289-295.

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西省近48 a高温和强降水极端事件变化特征

王咏梅1, 张红雨2, 郭雪3, 刘慧丽1, 李润春4   

    1.  山西省运城市气象局,山西 运城 044000；
    2. 山西省气象局,山西 太原 030002；
    3. 山西省气象科学研究所,山西 太原 030002； 
    4. 山西省阳泉市气象局,山西 阳泉 045000
  • 收稿日期:2011-02-19 修回日期:2011-04-06 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-04-10
  • 作者简介:王咏梅（1968-）,女,山西平陆人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气候预测、气候变化研究. E-mail : wymzhx@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41175075)

Study on the Change of Extreme Events of Hightemperature and HeavyPrecipitation in Shanxi Province in Recent 48 Years

 WANG  Yong-Mei1, ZHANG  Hong-Yu2, GUO  Xue3, LIU  Hui-Li1, LI  Run-Chun4   

    1. Yuncheng Meterological Observatory, Yuncheng 044000, Shanxi Province, China;
    2. Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002, China;
    3. Shanxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Taiyuan 030002, China;
    4. Yangquan Meteorological Observatory, Yangquan 045000, Shanxi Province, China
  • Received:2011-02-19 Revised:2011-04-06 Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-04-10

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摘要： 利用山西68个台站逐日最高气温、降水等资料，采用百分位值极端事件定义方法和Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法，研究山西1961-2008年极端高温和极端强降水事件的变化特征。结果表明：1961年以来，山西极端高温日数呈显著增加趋势，趋势为5.9 d/10 a，20世纪90年代中期以前变化趋势不明显，1997年以来增多趋势显著。与此同时，极端强降水事件趋于减少。极端高温事件在2001年发生了突变，2001年以后极端高温事件显著增多。极端高温日数有3~4 a，8~12 a及30 a的周期，极端强降水日数有准3 a，6~10 a及准16 a的周期。极端高温事件的增加与气候变暖有密切联系，Nino_3区海温、欧亚地区的纬向环流及西太平洋副热带高压（下称西太副高）对极端高温事件有很大影响，当Nino_3区海温偏高、纬向环流偏强、副高面积偏大、位置偏西时，容易导致极端高温日数偏多。极端强降水的发生则与东亚季风和Nino_3区海温有密切联系，当季风强盛、Nino_3区海温偏低时，往往引起极端强降水事件增多。

关键词: 极端高温, 极端强降水, 突变, 时空变化, 季风, 海温, 大气环流, 山西

Abstract: In this paper, the events of extreme high-temperature and extreme heavy-precipitation in Shanxi Province were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis based on the daily highest temperature and precipitation data observed by 68 meteorological stations. The results show that the increase of extreme high-temperature was significant with an increase rate of 5.9 d/10 a, it was not so high before the mid-1990s but significant since 1997. Moreover, the extreme heavy-precipitation days were decreased in recent 48 years, but the trend was not obvious. There was a sharp change of extreme high-temperature days in 2001, and the extreme high-temperatures days were increased significantly since 2001. The increase of extreme high-temperature days was closely related to climate warming, and it was strongly affected by high sea temperature in Nino_3, strong latitudinal circulation over Eurasia and large-area Western Pacific High. The increase of extreme heavy-precipitation days was closely related to the low sea temperature in Nino_3 and strong East Asian Monsoon.

Key words: extreme high-temperature, extreme heavy-precipitation, sharp change, spatiotemporal change, monsoon, sea temperature, atmospheric circulation, Shanxi Province