黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性的耦合协调水平测度及交互响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 科学量化评估黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性的耦合协调度及其交互响应关系，对于推动流域生态保护具有重要的科学意义和实践价值。在构建黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数分解法、耦合协调模型和面板VAR模型探讨了2013—2022年黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性耦合协调度的时空分布特征及交互响应关系。结果表明：（1）黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性耦合协调度水平有了明显提升，但距离优质协调还存在较大空间。（2）流域间差异贡献率达60%~70%，是区域失衡的主要原因，尤其以上游与中下游间的“断层式差距”较为突出。（3）黄河流域新质生产力和生态韧性具有明显的“自我增强效应”，二者之间存在“短期抑制、长期促进”的动态交互响应关系，尚未形成良性循环。本研究为因地制宜促进黄河流域新质生产力发展，推动黄河流域新质生产力和生态韧性协同发展提供了参考价值和科学依据。

关键词: 黄河流域, 新质生产力, 生态韧性, 耦合协调, 交互响应

Abstract:

It is of great scientific significance and practical value to quantitatively evaluate the coupling coordination degree and mutual response relationship between new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin for promoting ecological protection in the basin. Based on the construction of the coupling coordination evaluation index system of new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin, this study comprehensively used Kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, coupling coordination model, and panel VAR model to explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and interactive response relationship between the coupling coordination degree of new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2022. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the coupling coordination level of new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin significantly improved, with still much room for improvement in terms of high quality coordination. (2) The contribution rate of inter-basin differences was 60%-70%, primarily causing regional imbalance, especially a “fault gap” in the upstream, middle, and lower reaches. (3) The new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin had a “self-reinforcing effect,” and there was a dynamic interaction response of “short-term inhibition and long-term promotion” between the two but a virtuous circle was not yet formed. This study provides a certain reference value and scientific basis for promoting the development of new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin based on local conditions.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, new quality productivity, ecological resilience, coupling coordination, interaction response

周文慧, 许彩艳. 黄河流域新质生产力与生态韧性的耦合协调水平测度及交互响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(11): 2093-2103.

ZHOU Wenhui, XU Caiyan. Coupled coordination level measurement and interaction response analysis of new quality productivity and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 2093-2103.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	属性
新质生产力	新型劳动者	技术研发人员数	+
	新型劳动者	新兴产业人员总数	+
	新型劳动对象	可再生能源发电比重	+
		可再生能源利用效率	+
		新材料产业产值	+
		特高压输电线路数	+
	新型劳动资料	互联网宽带接入端口数	+
		移动用户数	+
		数据交易所数量	+
		工业机器人安装密度	+
生态韧性	抵抗力	森林覆盖率	+
		建成区绿化覆盖率	+
		人均公园绿地面积	+
		人均水资源量	+
	适应力	二氧化硫排放量	-
		万元GDP水耗	-
		万元GDP能耗	-
	恢复力	城镇生活污水处理率	+
		水土流失治理面积	+
		工业固体废物综合利用率	+
		工业污染治理投资	+

滞后期阶数	AIC	BIC	HQIC
1	-4.698	-3.950^*	-4.404
2	-4.490	-3.532	-4.120
3	-4.921^*	-3.717	-4.472^*
4	-4.700	-3.205	-4.178

变量	NQP	ECR
L.NQP	1.203^***	-0.102
L.NQP	（0.141）	（0.120）
L.ECR	-0.101	1.000^***
L.ECR	（0.159）	（0.134）
L2.NQP	-0.506	0.031
L2.NQP	（0.320）	（0.197）
L2.ECR	0.027	0.007
L2.ECR	（0.189）	（0.160）
L3.NQP	0.457^**	0.076
L3.NQP	（0.181）	（0.153）
L3.ECR	0.093	-0.065
L3.ECR	（0.135）	（0.114)