不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.02

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 363-374.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.02

不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟

王雪莹¹^,²(), 谷黄河¹^,²(), 代斌³, 张瀚文³, 余钟波¹^,²

1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210098
2.河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京 210098
3.上海勘测设计研究院有限公司，上海 200335

收稿日期:2023-10-18 修回日期:2023-12-24 出版日期:2024-03-15 发布日期:2024-04-01
通讯作者: 谷黄河. E-mail: ghh0001@hhu.edu.cn
作者简介:王雪莹（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水文学及水资源. E-mail: wangxy07@hhu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42271020);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费(521013122);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费(2021490611);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费(2020490611)

Simulation of climate characteristics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by regional climate models at different horizontal resolutions

WANG Xueying¹^,²(), GU Huanghe¹^,²(), DAI Bin³, ZHANG Hanwen³, YU Zhongbo¹^,²

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
3. Shanghai Investigation, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200335, China

Received:2023-10-18 Revised:2023-12-24 Online:2024-03-15 Published:2024-04-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原地区气候特殊、地形复杂，气象观测站点稀少，对其区域气候和水循环过程的观测和模拟存在很大的困难。本文基于RegCM模式和WRF模式，探究不同水平分辨率10 km、25 km、50 km下区域气候模式对该地区1989—2008年气候时空分布规律的模拟能力。研究结果表明：在10 km水平分辨率下，RegCM模式模拟多年平均气温绝对误差为0.33 ℃，WRF模式模拟绝对误差为1.77 ℃，比25 km和50 km水平分辨率下绝对误差减少1.60~2.12 ℃，且四季气温模拟值与实测值的相关性有所提高；随着水平分辨率的提高，WRF模式对青藏高原东南部和南部的降水量高估有所改善，RegCM模式模拟值逐渐接近实测值（模拟年降水量相对误差由169%降至75%）且对高原北部降水量的模拟有所改善，但整体上模式对降雨的高估依然存在；两个模式随水平分辨率的提高对地形起伏最大的雅鲁藏布江源区降水量的误差减少最为明显。本研究可为揭示气候变化下青藏高原水文响应机理奠定基础。

关键词: 区域气候模式, 不同水平分辨率, WRF, RegCM, 青藏高原

Abstract:

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a unique climate, complex topography, and few meteorological observation stations, which makes it difficult to observe and simulate its regional climate and water cycle processes. Using the regional climate models RegCM and WRF, the spatial and temporal distribution of the climate in this region from 1989 to 2008 was systematically analyzed, and the simulation capability of the RegCM and WRF models was investigated at 10, 25, and 50 km horizontal resolutions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that the trend of annual average temperature simulated by both models at 10 km horizontal resolution is 1.60-2.12 ℃ lower than the multiyear average temperature simulation at 25 and 50 km horizontal resolution. With increasing horizontal resolution, the simulation biases of annual and seasonal temperatures simulated by the WRF model decrease, and the cold bias of temperature in the central and western parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau improves. The simulated temperature in the RegCM model at a 10 km horizontal resolution has the lowest error, and it is significantly better for simulating the spatial distribution of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The correlation between the simulated temperature of both models in different seasons and the observation data has been improved. In the precipitation simulation, the WRF model at a horizontal resolution of 25 km has the best correlation with the observed data but has the largest error. With the increase of horizontal resolution, the overestimation of precipitation in the southeastern and southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by the WRF model has been significantly improved, and the annual precipitation simulated by the RegCM model gradually approaches the measured values (the overestimation decreases from about 2.73 times to 1.77 times). However, the overall overestimation of precipitation by both models still exists. In the simulation of the five major river sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with increasing horizontal spatial resolution, the WRF model reduces the biases of the air temperature in the source region of the Mekong river and Salween River, whereas the RegCM model reduces the biases of the air temperature in the source region of the Brahmaputra River and Mekong river. The largest reduction in precipitation bias was achieved in the Brahmaputra River source region at 10 km horizontal resolution by the WRF and RegCM models. This study can lay the foundation for understanding the impact of climate change on the water cycle process in the Qighai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: regional climate models, different horizontal resolutions, WRF, RegCM, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

王雪莹, 谷黄河, 代斌, 张瀚文, 余钟波. 不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(3): 363-374.

WANG Xueying, GU Huanghe, DAI Bin, ZHANG Hanwen, YU Zhongbo. Simulation of climate characteristics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by regional climate models at different horizontal resolutions[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 363-374.

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	RegCM	WRF
水平分辨率	10 km、25 km、50 km	10 km、25 km、50 km
经纬度范围	70 °~106 °E， 23 °~42 °N； 49 °~180 °E， 0 °~61 °N； 33 °E~180 °E， 24 °S~67 °N	74 °~106 °E， 22 °~42 °N； 50 °~180 °E， 0 °~49 °N； 40 °E~180 °E， 24 °S~65 °N
格点数	297×189、394×249、 243×197	277×216、395×250、 233×197
对流参数化方案	MIT-Emanuel	Kain-Fritch Ⅱ
陆面参数化方案	CLM 3.5	NOAH LSM
行星边界层	Hotslag	YSU
谱逼近方法	选用	选用

		年均	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
RegCM模式10 km	MAE/℃	0.33	2.17	0.69	0.80	0.82
	RMSE/℃	0.44	2.27	0.79	1.00	1.04
	R	0.55	0.47	0.65	0.47	0.55
WRF模式10 km	MAE/℃	1.77	3.38	0.27	2.20	1.41
	RMSE/℃	1.78	3.40	0.34	2.24	1.47
	R	0.91	0.87	0.71	0.73	0.93
RegCM模式25 km	MAE/℃	2.45	4.20	2.80	1.67	1.14
	RMSE/℃	2.48	4.24	2.86	1.83	1.29
	R	0.75	0.67	0.50	0.19	0.81
WRF模式25 km	MAE/℃	3.37	5.65	1.54	2.40	3.92
	RMSE/℃	3.38	5.65	1.55	2.43	3.95
	R	0.93	0.96	0.92	0.84	0.91
RegCM模式50 km	MAE/℃	2.13	0.96	2.06	3.44	2.42
	RMSE/℃	2.15	1.00	2.07	3.47	2.82
	R	0.93	0.89	0.87	0.15	0.70
WRF模式50 km	MAE/℃	3.77	6.20	2.39	2.91	3.74
	RMSE/℃	3.79	6.24	2.41	2.95	3.86
	R	0.72	0.73	0.79	0.01	0.63

		年均	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
RegCM模式10 km	BIAS/%	75	102	22	126	532
	MAE/mm	290.7	70.6	49.3	98.3	73.3
	RMSE/mm	293.1	72.2	55.3	99.0	74.5
	R	0.69	0.28	0.60	0.48	0.62
WRF模式10 km	BIAS/%	50	101	15	55	342
	MAE/mm	195.4	69.9	35.4	42.5	47.2
	RMSE/mm	201.3	71.2	43.0	44.5	47.7
	R	0.37	0.08	0.63	0.03	0.50
RegCM模式25 km	BIAS/%	125	210	68	123	640
	MAE/mm	486.0	145.9	156.4	96.1	88.1
	RMSE/mm	489.5	146.8	161.1	97.2	88.5
	R	-0.08	0.09	-0.05	0.03	0.57
WRF模式25 km	BIAS/%	134	151	113	139	365
	MAE/mm	523.0	104.9	259.0	108.2	50.3
	RMSE/mm	524.6	105.4	261.1	108.9	51.0
	R	0.73	0.65	0.80	0.55	0.21
RegCM模式50 km	BIAS/%	169	246	122	165	565
	MAE/mm	658.8	170.5	279.5	128.4	77.9
	RMSE/mm	659.5	170.8	280.1	129.3	79.8
	R	0.83	0.76	0.83	0.52	0.29
WRF模式50 km	BIAS/%	51	60	42	51	135
	MAE/mm	197.2	41.6	95.4	40.1	18.5
	RMSE/mm	204.2	44.3	99.1	42.2	20.4
	R	0.28	0.05	0.57	0.45	0.19

不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟

Simulation of climate characteristics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by regional climate models at different horizontal resolutions

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