1951—2020年疏勒河流域气温时空变化特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于疏勒河流域敦煌站、瓜州站和玉门站1951—2020年气温实测数据，采用线性倾向、累计距平、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，分析各站气温时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）疏勒河流域各站平均气温均呈显著上升趋势，倾向率排序表现为：敦煌站（0.244 ℃·(10a)^-1，P<0.05）>瓜州站（0.209 ℃·(10a)^-1，P<0.05）>玉门站（0.195 ℃·(10a)^-1，P<0.05）。（2）敦煌站、玉门站四季平均气温呈显著上升趋势；瓜州站春季、秋季、冬季平均气温呈显著上升趋势，夏季平均气温呈不显著上升趋势。（3）疏勒河流域各站平均气温突变年份分别为1998年、1997年和1995年；第一主周期分别为58 a、30 a、13 a。（4）疏勒河流域全年及四季平均气温从东向西逐渐升高，不均匀系数和集中度均呈下降趋势。

关键词: 气温, 时空变化, M-K检验, Morlet小波分析, 疏勒河流域

Abstract:

The linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation of temperature in Dunhuang, Guazhou, and Yumen stations in the Shule River Basin from 1951 to 2020. The results revealed that (1) all stations experienced a significant upward trend in average temperature, with tendency rates of 0.244 °C·(10a)^-1 (P<0.05) for Dunhuang station, 0.209 °C·(10a)^-1 (P<0.05) for Guazhou station, and 0.195 °C·(10a)^-1 (P<0.05) for Yumen station. (2) Dunhuang and Yumen stations exhibited a significant upward trend in average temperature across all seasons, except for a nonsignificant upward trend in summer. (3) the mutation years for average temperature at Dunhuang, Guazhou, and Yumen stations were 1998, 1997, and 1995, respectively, with the first main cycles being 58 a, 30 a, and 13 a, respectively. (4) and annual and seasonal average temperatures gradually increased from east to west in the Shule River Basin, with decreasing nonuniformity coefficients and concentration degrees also observed.

Key words: temperature, temporal and spatial changes, M-K test, Morlet wavelet analysis, Shule River Basin

王士维, 孙栋元, 周敏, 王亦可, 王祥镔, 季宗虎, 张文睿, 武兰珍. 1951—2020年疏勒河流域气温时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(7): 1065-1074.

WANG Shiwei, SUN Dongyuan, ZHOU Min, WANG Yike, WANG Xiangbin, JI Zonghu, ZHANG Wenrui, WU Lanzhen. Temporal and spatial variation of temperature in the Shule River Basin from 1951 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1065-1074.

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