干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 1382-1391.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.06.15

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960—2017年呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件时空变化

崔凤琪1,2, 唐海萍1,2, 张钦1,2, 戴路炜1,2   

  1. 1.北京师范大学地理科学学部资源学院,北京 100875;
    2.北京师范大学,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-24 修回日期:2018-06-14 出版日期:2018-11-15 发布日期:2025-11-18
  • 通讯作者: 唐海萍. E-mail: tanghp@bnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:崔凤琪(1993-),女,硕士生,研究方向为气候变化与生态系统服务. E-mail: zhcuifengqi@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0500608-3)

Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Climatic Events in the Hulunbuir Grasslands during the Period of 1960-2017

CUI Feng-qi1,2, TANG Hai-ping1,2, ZHANG Qin1,2, DAI Lu-wei1,2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100857, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2018-04-24 Revised:2018-06-14 Published:2018-11-15 Online:2025-11-18

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摘要： 基于1960—2017年呼伦贝尔草原6个气象站点的逐日气象数据,计算与区域水旱寒热密切相关的13个表征气候变化的指数,利用线性拟合法、Mann-Kendall 检验、Sen’s斜率估计和小波分析等方法,分析呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件的发生趋势与时空格局。结果表明:① 表征极端高温指数的夏日日数、暖夜日数、暖昼日数、暖持续日数分别以3.53 d·(10a)-1、4.09 d·(10a)-1、3.1 d·(10a)-1、2.67 d·(10a)-1的速率显著上升(P<0.01);而表征极端低温事件的指数霜日日数、冷夜日数分别以3.22 d·(10a)-1、2.9 d·(10a)-1的速率显著下降(P<0.05)。 ② 极端气温的突变开始于20世纪90年代,变暖速率最快的区域位于研究区的东北部,在近58 a的时间尺度上各项极端气温指数显著周期集中于2~9 a。 ③ 研究区内5 d最大降水量、持续湿润指数分别以5 mm·(10a)-1、0.2 d·(10a)-1的速率呈现出显著下降趋势(P<0.01),持续干燥指数呈现微弱上升,年总降水量和降水强度呈现下降趋势,但并不显著。④ 表征极端降水事件的指数(普通日降水强度、年湿期降水总量、干燥指数、5 d最大降水量)在南北方向上以研究区的中轴线为界,东部地区干燥指数下降,年总降水量显著上升,具有变湿的趋势;西部地区持续干燥指数增加,持续湿润指数显著减少,呈现出变干的趋势。降雨指数突变点分布并未发现统一规律,显著周期集中于2~7 a。

关键词: 极端气温, 极端降水, 时空变化, M-K检验, 小波分析, 呼伦贝尔草原

Abstract: Thirteen extreme climatic indices related with regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on the daily meteorological data from 6 meteorological stations in the Hulunbuir Grasslands and its surrounding area during the period of 1960-2017. The linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator and wavelet analysis were used. The results showed that the summer days (SU25), warm nights (TN90P), warm days (TX90P) and continuous warm days (CWD) used to characterize the extreme high temperature increased significantly (P<0.01) with the rates of 3.53 d·(10a)-1, 4.09 d·(10a)-1, 3.1 d·(10a)-1 and 2.67 d·(10a)-1 respectively. The exponential frost days (FD0) and cold nights (TN10P) used to characterize the extreme cold events decreased significantly with the rates of 3.22 d·(10a)-1 and 2.9 d·(10a)-1 respectively (P<0.05). The abrupt change of extreme temperature began from the 1990s. The region with the highest warming rate was located in the northeastern part of the study area. The significant period of extreme high temperature index was concentrated on the scale of 2-9 years. The maximum 5 day precipitation(RX5D)and consecutive wet index (CWD) in the study area were in a significantly decrease trend (P<0.01) with rates of 5 mm·(10a)-1 and 0.2 d·(10a)-1 respectively. The consecutive dry index (CDD) was in a slight increase, and the annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and precipitation intensity were in a slight decrease trend. The indices used to characterize the extreme precipitation events (common daily intensity index, wet day precipitation , consecutive dry index and maximum 5 day precipitation) were delimited along the central axis of the study area in a north-south direction. The drying index in the eastern region was in a decrease trend. Annual precipitation increased significantly. In the western region, the consecutive dryness index (CDD) increased, and the consecutive wetness index (CWD) decreased significantly.

Key words: extreme climate, extreme precipitation, spatiotemporal variation, Mann-Kendall test, Wavelet analysis, Hulunbuir grasslands