干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 1392-1401.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.06.16

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于不同气候态对天山及其邻区气候变化的影响

周玲1,2, 孙慧兰1,2, 杨余辉1,2, 马倩1,2, 吴珊珊1,2, 周永超1,2   

  1. 1.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    2.新疆师范大学丝绸之路经济带城市发展研究中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-19 修回日期:2018-07-09 出版日期:2018-11-15 发布日期:2025-11-18
  • 通讯作者: 孙慧兰. E-mail: hlsunxjnu@sina.com
  • 作者简介:周玲(1990-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事自然资源开发与规划研究. E-mail: 1132305175@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    地区科学基金项目(41761004);新疆师范大学丝绸之路经济带城市发展研究中心开放课题(XJNURWJD062017B02);新疆自然科学基金面上项目(2017D01A09)资助

Effects of Different Climate States on Climate Change in the Tianshan Mountains and Neighbouring Areas

ZHOU Ling1,2, SUN Hui-lan1,2, YANG Yu-hui1,2, MA Qian1,2, WU Shan-shan1,2, ZHOU Yong-chao1,2   

  1. 1. College of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;
    2. Study Center for Belt Urban Development along Silk Road Economic Belt, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China
  • Received:2018-03-19 Revised:2018-07-09 Published:2018-11-15 Online:2025-11-18

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摘要： 利用天山地区26个气象站1961—2015年的逐月气温和降水资料,探讨不同气候基准态对气候监测和评估的影响,为天山地区气候变化研究提供更加科学客观的依据。研究表明:① 天山东段是不同气候态下气温变化的敏感区,而天山北坡是年降水变化的敏感区。以Ⅳ态(1961—2015年)的变化为基准,在Ⅰ态(1961—1990年)与Ⅱ态(1971—2000年)下气温要素与降水要素的分析结果均偏高,Ⅲ态(1981—2010年)下分析结果则偏低。② 以Ⅳ态的突变时间为基准,气温整体上Ⅰ态没有突变、Ⅱ态出现突变偏早,Ⅲ态出现突变偏迟。③ Ⅰ态和Ⅱ态会使气温和降水等级偏小,而Ⅲ态会使气温和降水等级偏大。不同气候态对降水异常没有影响,Ⅲ态对气温异常产生的影响最小。④ 采用不同气候态分析天山地区同时段同类要素时,会出现正向变化也出现负向变化。同时在使用基准气候态进行气候变化分析时,需结合多因素对分析结果进行客观的评价。

关键词: 气候态, 气候检测, 气候评估, 天山

Abstract: In this paper, the effects of different climatic states on climate change in the Tianshan Mountains were discussed based on the data of monthly temperature and precipitation from 26 meteorological stations during the period from 1961 to 2015. The purposes of this study were to provide more scientific and objective bases for monitoring, assessing and studying climate change in the study area. Research shows are as follows: ① The east Tianshan Mountains was a sensitive region to the temperature change under different climatic conditions, and the northern slope of the mountains was a sensitive region to annual precipitation change. Based on referring the change of Ⅳ state during the period of 1961-2015, the analyzed results of temperature elements and precipitation elements under State Ⅰ (1961-1990) and State Ⅱ (1971-2000) were higher, but those under State Ⅲ (1981-2010) were lower; ② By taking the mutation time of Ⅳ state as the criterion, there was holistically no mutation of temperature under State Ⅰ, but the mutation of temperature under State Ⅱ became earlier and that under State Ⅲ became later; ③ The grades of temperature and precipitation under State Ⅰ and State Ⅱ were lower, but those under State Ⅲ were higher. There were no the effects of different climatic states on the precipitation anomaly, and the effects of State Ⅲ on the temperature anomaly were the lowest; ④ Both the positive change and negative change occurred when the different climatic states were used to analyze the same elements in the Tianshan Mountains. Moreover, it is necessary to use multiple elements in making an objective evaluation on the analyzed results of climate change using the climatic criterion.

Key words: climate state, climate detection, climate assessment, Tianshan Mountains