半干旱地区矿区土地利用时空演变与预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.28

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a critical factor contributing to regional land planning and ecological environmental protection. LUCCs associated with human activities, such as coal mining, have increased the tension in human-environment interactions. This study explored the spatio-temporal LUCC and its driving factors from 1985 to 2015 in the Datong mining area, which is one of the eight major coal production bases in China. Furthermore, the random forests (RF)-future land use simulation (FLUS) model was proposed to explicitly simulate the spatial trajectories of LUCCs for the year 2025. The results showed that (1) forestland, cropland, and watershed areas kept decreasing, while grasslands and construction lands kept increasing from 1985 to 2015. (2) Climate, elevation, and distance were the most influential factors for the distribution of croplands, forestlands, and grasslands, while precipitation was the most important factor for the distribution of watersheds. Coal production capacity and distance from facilities were the most influential factors for the distribution of construction lands. (3) Both the FLUS and RF-FLUS models had a good fitting accuracy, whereas the RF-FLUS models had a satisfactory kappa index and OA index. (4) Land use simulations for the year 2025 based on the RF-FLUS model indicated that croplands, forestlands, and grasslands will decrease, while construction lands will increase. This study provides a scientific reference for understanding the complex and dynamic evolution of LUCC, exploring the possibilities for the way of land resources, and promoting the sustainable development of coal mining areas.

Key words: coal mining area, land use change, model prediction, random forest model, driving factors

LIU Chang,ZHANG Hong,ZHANG Xiaoyu,YANG Guoting,LIU Yong. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of land use in semi-arid mining areas[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 292-300.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 28

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数据类型	数据名称	数据来源
自然因子	高程	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
	坡度、坡向	基于高程（DEM）数据提取
	气温、降水	中国气象数据网（http://data.cma.cn）
社会经济因子	煤矿生产能力	采用实际调查获取
社会经济因子	人口	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
距离因子	距公路、铁路、水系距离	采用ArcGIS 10.5中欧氏距离算法计算
距离因子	距设施点、居民点距离	POI数据采用网络爬虫技术获取服务设施
土地利用数据	1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年遥感影像	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）

年份	土地利用类型	林地	草地	耕地	水域	建设用地	其他
1985—1995	林地	86.88	3.69	8.54	0.45	0.44	-
	草地	5.26	77.63	16.49	0.31	0.20	0.11
	耕地	14.87	8.82	73.60	0.58	1.94	0.19
	水域	17.31	23.64	5.41	52.47	1.17	-
	建设用地	6.72	3.18	6.27	4.02	77.55	2.25
	其他	26.68	1.64	-	-	2.35	69.33
1995—2005	林地	10.44	55.93	31.2	0.10	2.07	0.27
	草地	35.7	49.14	13.26	0.14	1.07	0.68
	耕地	13.36	72.58	11.59	0.12	1.75	0.60
	水域	21.23	31.28	33.39	0.33	13.47	0.30
	建设用地	4.17	32.89	27.64	0.05	32.92	2.33
	其他	7.02	47.12	7.08	0.37	28.75	9.66
2005—2015	林地	99.20	-	0.06	-	0.30	0.44
	草地	-	97.54	0.05	-	2.24	0.18
	耕地	-	1.03	85.99	-	12.97	0.01
	水域	-	2.12		3.52	-	94.35
	建设用地	-	-	-	-	100.00	-
	其他	-	-	-	-	-	100.00

	RF-FLUS模型							FLUS模型
	林地	草地	耕地	水域	建设用地	其他		林地	草地	耕地	水域	建设用地	其他
林地	95.03	1.73	1.35	0.00	0.00	0.20	林地	93.25	2.14	1.80	0.00	0.00	0.33
草地	2.35	95.71	2.60	0.00	0.00	5.71	草地	2.94	95.33	2.32	10.00	0.00	6.03
耕地	2.02	1.20	94.57	0.00	0.00	0.26	耕地	2.54	1.62	93.52	0.00	0.00	0.26
水域	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	水域	0.00	0.00	0.00	90.00	0.00	0.00
建设用地	0.28	1.17	1.40	0.00	100.00	0.13	建设用地	0.66	0.85	2.05	0.00	100.00	0.20
其他	0.32	0.19	0.08	0.00	0.00	93.70	其他	0.61	0.06	0.31	0.00	0.00	93.18
总计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	总计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00

Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of land use in semi-arid mining areas

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