干旱区研究

›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 705-712.

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Study on Severe Dust Storms and Their Disasters in Inner Mongolia Based on Copulas Function

 LIU  Xue-Qin1，2, LI  Ning1，2，3, JI  Zhong-Hui1，2, ZHANG  Peng1，2, GU  Xiao-Tian1，2   

    1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 
    2.  Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; 
    3. Key Laboratory of Environment Evolution and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2011-05-30 Revised:2011-10-18 Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-09-11

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Abstract: This paper discussed the importance and the deficiency of multivariate analysis in researching natural disasters and describing the theory and methods of Copula function, which is widely used in financial field. On which a case study on severe sandstorm events in Inner Mongolia during the period of 1990-2008 was carried out. The joint distribution of 10-minute average maximum wind speed and duration of severe sandstorm disasters were revealed, and the return periods under different encounters were calculated. After comparing the return periods based on single variable, the obtained joint return periods were exacter. The case study showed that the Copula function can be used to simulate severe sandstorm disasters well. The results can be referred in working out the disaster reduction strategies and putting forward the measures of controlling severe sandstorm disasters, and also in further researching the risk of natural disasters.

Key words: Copulas function, joint distribution, severe sandstorm, disaster, return period, Inner Mongolia