冰雹天气的环境参量及预报模型

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.01.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the hail observation records of 119 national stations in Inner Mongolia and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1959 to 2021, the differences in layer formation, water vapor, typical temperature layer height, vertical wind shear, and cloud microphysical quantities between hail and nonhail were analyzed. A hail prediction model was established to provide an objective and quantitative basis for potential hail forecasting. The results revealed that the K-index, pseudo-equivalent temperature difference, vertical wind shear, specific humidity, rain water mixing ratio, snow water mixing ratio, ice water mixing ratio, and liquid water mixing ratio were not well distinguished between hail and nonhail. The total index was >50 °C, temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa was ≥28.4 °C, precipitable water vapor was ≤24 mm, height of -20 °C was <7.05 km, and the height of -20 °C to 0 °C was ≤3.15 km. The above environmental parameter thresholds were able to identify >70% of hail samples, and the reverse condition can identify >70% of nonhail samples. Based on the analysis of the environmental parameters of hail and nonhail samples, the Fisher discriminant method was used to establish a hail prediction model using the total index, temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, height of -20 °C to 0 °C, and precipitable water vapor. The accuracy of the model discrimination exceeded 80%.

Key words: hail, precipitation, environmental parameters, forecast model of hail, Inner Mongolia

YI Nana, SU Lijuan, ZHENG Xucheng, XIN Yue, CAI Min, LI Hui, JIN Yuchen. Environmental parameters and forecast models of hail events[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 13-23.

Figures/Tables 11

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	测试集					验证集
	总样本数	正样本		负样本		总样本数	正样本		负样本
	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%
正样本	10066	7547	75.0	2519	25.0	317	311	98.1	6	1.9
负样本	7446	6079	81.6	1367	18.4	287	203	70.7	84	29.3

	测试集					验证集
	总样本数	正样本		负样本		总样本数	正样本		负样本
	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%
正样本	10066	8449	83.9	1617	16.1	317	314	99.1	3	0.9
负样本	7446	5586	75.0	1860	25.0	287	175	61.0	112	39.0

Environmental parameters and forecast models of hail events

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