干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 677-685.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.22

• Environment and Ecology • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluation on Ecological Security of Coal Mining and Fragile Ecological Compound Area:A Case Study in Shanxi Province

LIU Xiu-li1,2, GUO Pi-bin3, ZHANG Bo4, GUO Shu-fen1, JIA Yi2   

  1. 1. Cooperative Innovation Center for Transition of Resources-based Economies,Shanxi University of Finance & Economies, Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China;
    2. Department of Geography,Xinzhou Teachers University,Xinzhou 034000,Shanxi,China;
    3. Department of Economics,Taiyuan Normal University,Taiyuan 030619,Shanxi,China;
    4. College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2017-11-23 Online:2018-05-15 Published:2025-11-17

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Abstract: The issues of ecological security in the areas with intense human activities and fragile ecology are becoming the focuses of global attention. In this paper,a case study on the ecological security in Shanxi Province,China during the period of 2000-2015 was carried out based on the emergy of ecological footprint,and the ecological security trend during the period from 2016 to 2020 was predicted using the ARIMA model.The results showed that the per capita emergy of ecological capacity in Shanxi Province was decreased from 1.48 hm2 to 1.12 hm2,but that of ecological footprint was increased from 5.92 hm2 to 13.08 hm2 during the period of 2000-2015.The ecological deficit was increased from -4.44 hm2 to -11.96 hm2.The ecological pressure index was increased from 4.55 to 11.72,and the ecological coordination coefficient was reduced from 1.19 to 1.08.The ecological security in Shanxi Province was safe during the period from 2000 to 2015.Based on the development capability of the ecological economic system,the ecological economic system in Shanxi Province had a great development potential from 2000 to 2015.The results predicted with the ARIMA model revealed that,during the period of 2016-2020,the per capita emergy of ecological capacity in Shanxi Province would be decreased from 1.08 hm2 to 0.81 hm2,but that of ecological footprint would be increased from 13.02 hm2 to 14.33 hm2.The ecological deficit in Shanxi Province would be increased from -11.94 hm2 to -13.52 hm2,and the ecological pressure index from 12.05 to 17.71,respectively.The ecological security in Shanxi Province would be extremely unsafe,and its warning level would be increased from the serious warning to the extremely serious warning during the period from 2016 to 2000.It was found that the ecological security in Shanxi Province in the future will be a key problem to be solved.The results would contribute to the strategy adjustment of regional development in Shanxi Province and be helpful to realize the transformation of resources-based economy and the regional sustainable development.

Key words: emergy, ecological footprint, diversity index, ecological security, sustainability, Shanxi Province