近20 a塔里木河流域人类活动及景观生态风险时空变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Human activity is an essential factor in the intensification of regional ecological risk. Hence, it is urgent to discuss the impact of human activity intensity (HAI) on the landscape ecological risk. This paper took the Tarim River Basin as the research object. Based on the land use, population spatial distribution, and night light data during five periods from 2000 to 2020, it introduces the comprehensive index of land use degree to improve the evaluation system of HAI and quantitatively evaluates the temporal and spatial changes of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the basin under robust human activity. Combined with the Copula function and bivariate local spatial autocorrelation model, the spatiotemporal correlation between LER and HAI is revealed. The results showed that (1) The HAI in the Tarim River Basin enhanced markedly in the past 20 years, and extensive human activities were mainly distributed in the oasis areas with rich water resources. The intensity of human activities in the basin increased, with the proportion of low-intensity areas diminished by 17.88% and that of medium-high-intensity areas elevated by 3.57%. (2) The overall LER in the Tarim River Basin was characterized by a high surrounding area and a low central area, and the high-risk area was mainly distributed in the oasis areas with more frequent human activities. The LER in the basin intensified before 2015, which slowed down after 2010, and gradually emerged after 2015. (3) The HAI and LER were positively correlated during the past 20 years, and the positive effect of human activities on LER was enhanced. After 2010, the increasing correlation between the two flattened, and a positive effect appeared in the stage of transition from increase to decrease. The H-H cluster area elevated in space, and the distribution pattern changed from dispersion to concentration. After 2015, the L-L and H-L cluster areas slowly increased, unlike the L-H cluster areas. The results can provide a scientific reference for the rational use of land resources and protection of the landscape ecology in the Tarim River Basin.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, human activity, spatio-temporal correlation, Tarim River Basin

YANG Rongqin, XIAO Yulei, CHI Miaomiao, MU Zhenxia. Temporal and spatial variations of human activities and landscape ecological risks in the Tarim River Basin, China, during the last 20 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 1010-1020.

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2000年	2020年
2000年	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用土地	总计
耕地	-	1098.66	1425.45	203.65	1297.06	542.65	4567.47
林地	2071.37	-	5722.53	272.24	76.65	1808.06	9950.85
草地	12165.10	6037.15	-	3734.20	289.33	86713.10	108938.87
水域	490.03	231.77	7353.46	-	71.48	15430.09	23576.83
建设用地	822.63	85.20	68.18	8.33	-	36.20	1020.54
未利用土地	4680.59	1418.17	84866.90	5705.87	845.78	-	97517.29
总计	20229.72	8870.95	99436.50	9924.28	2580.30	104530.09	245571.85

年份	平均 ERI	LER各等级面积占比/%
年份	平均 ERI	低风险	较低风险	中风险	较高风险	高风险
2000年	0.075	5.79	39.25	31.64	17.37	5.94
2005年	0.075	5.86	39.09	31.19	17.84	6.03
2010年	0.077	3.95	38.51	27.48	19.78	10.28
2015年	0.078	3.93	37.98	26.72	20.24	11.14
2020年	0.078	3.91	38.42	27.49	20.15	10.03

函数类型	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
Frank Copula	9.50	27.57	26.66	22.60	23.18
Clayton Copula	17.34	36.57	28.92	24.75	24.87
Gumbel Copula	14.22	37.62	51.95	45.32	45.71
t Copula	10.22	29.71	31.04	26.67	27.25
Gaussian Copula	13.18	37.38	48.84	41.18	40.82

Temporal and spatial variations of human activities and landscape ecological risks in the Tarim River Basin, China, during the last 20 years

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