气候变化下泾河流域蓝绿水变化趋势及预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.12.07

Abstract

Abstract:

In this study, we analyzed meteorological data from 1980 to 2020, hydrological runoff data, and future climate models from CMIP6 in the Jinghe River Basin. The CMIP6 climate data was processed using the delta downscaling method and coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model to investigate the variations in blue-green water due to climate change in the basin. The results showed that under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, the blue-green water content in the study area exhibited an insignificant upward trend. Under the SSP3-7.0 pathway, the blue water content showed an insignificant downward trend, while the green water content showed a significant upward trend. Similarly, under the SSP5-8.5 pathway, the blue water content showed an insignificant downward trend, and the green water content also exhibited an insignificant upward trend. The average annual blue water volume under the three pathways decreased compared to the historical period, with annual averages of 128.8 mm, 117.2 mm, and 126 mm, respectively. Conversely, the average annual green water volume increased, recording values of 372.7 mm, 369.3 mm, and 372.1 mm, resulting in a green water coefficient higher than that of the historical period. The spatial distribution of blue-green water increased from northwest to southeast, with consistent spatial distribution characteristics across each pathway.

Key words: SWAT model, Delta downscaling, climate change, CMIP6 climate model, blue-green water, Jinghe River Basin

ZHANG Jiaqi, LIU Zhao, HAN Zhongqing, WANG Lixia, ZHANG Jinxia, YUE Jiayin, GUAN Zilong. Trend change and prediction of blue-green water in the Jinghe River Basin under climate change[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 2045-2055.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 26

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数据名称	数据年份	分辨率	数据来源	网址
DEM数据	2020年	30 m	地理空间数据云	https://www.gscloud.cn
土地利用数据	1980年、2000年、2020年	30 m	中国科学院资源环境数据中心	https://www.resdc.cn
土壤类型	2020年	1 km	世界土壤数据库	https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/
实测气象数据	1980—2020年	日值	中国气象数据网	https://data.cma.cn
实测径流数据	1980—2020年	日值	黄河水利委员会
未来气候数据	1975—2014年（基准期）	日值	CMCC-ESM2模式	https://aims.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/
未来气候数据	2021—2050年（未来期）	日值	CMCC-ESM2模式	https://aims.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/

因子	相关系数R²	均方根误差RMSE
月平均降水量	0.643	3.3 mm
月均最高气温	0.955	2.92 ℃
月均最低气温	0.981	1.78 ℃

序号	参数	最优值	序号	参数	最优值
1	V_EVRCH	0.337	18	V_REVAPMN	472.001
2	V_TRNSRCH	0.427	19	V_RCHRG_DP	0.365
3	V_ESCO	1.200	20	V_SLSUBBSN	37.204
4	V_EPCO	0.439	21	V_FFCB	0.786
5	V_SURLAG	55.711	22	V_SHALLST	23562.256
6	V_CH_K1	93.200	23	V_DEEPST	34715.676
7	V_CH_N1	-3.083	24	V_SFTMP	-13.548
8	V_CH_N2	-0.019	25	V_SMTMP	-0.338
9	V_CH_K2	123.386	26	V_SMFMX	-2.317
10	V_ALPHA_BNK	0.346	27	V_SMFMN	7.732
11	V_CN2	81.835	28	V_TIMP	0.308
12	V_CANMX	-1.538	29	V_SOL_AWC	0.244
13	V_OV_N	18.574	30	V_TLAPS	-0.926
14	V_GW_DELAY	16.481	31	V_HRU_SLP	0.599
15	V_ALPHA_BF	0.500	32	V_SOL_BD	3.356
16	V_GWQMN	1084.731	33	V_SOL_K	1367.089
17	V_GW_REVAP	0.131

Trend change and prediction of blue-green water in the Jinghe River Basin under climate change

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