黄河“几字弯”典型半干旱小流域水沙变化及驱动机制

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.07

Abstract

Abstract:

The Ji Zi Bend of the Yellow River—a critical sediment source area and water-wind erosion ecotone within the Yellow River Basin—exhibits highly complex water-sediment relationships driven by a combination of aeolian activity and extreme precipitation events. Based on hydro-meteorological data from the Maobulakongdui, Xiliugou, and Huangfuchuan watersheds within the bend for the years 1964-2020, scholars have used various methods(e.g., Mann-Kendall test, double mass curve analysis, and cumulative anomaly method) to elucidate patterns in the spatiotemporal variation of runoff and sediment transport and their influencing factors.The results demonstrate (1) significant downward trends in annual runoff and sediment load for the three watersheds. However, decline rates partially deviated from the west-to-east geographical gradient. Notably, the transitional Xiliugou watershed exhibited the lowest decline rates but the highest anthropogenic contributions, which implies that human interventions override natural geographical gradient. (2) Abrupt change years observed in runoff and sediment series closely aligned with the implementation timelines of major ecological projects. Specifically, changes in Maobulakongdui and Xiliugou corresponded with the implementation periods of the Grain for Green Program and Large-scale Check Dam Construction, while the change in Huangfuchuan was strongly associated with the enforcement of a Grazing Exclusion Policy. (3) Human activities predominantly drove the drastic reduction in water and sediment within these typical bend watersheds, which accounted for an average contribution rate of more than 90% to reductions in runoff and sediment load. Furthermore, this regulatory effect has significantly intensified with the ongoing advancement of ecological management projects. These results can provide a scientific basis for differentiated ecological governance strategies in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: Yellow River’s “Ji Zi Bend”, semiarid basin, water-sediment variation, human activities, climate change

YANG Yafei, ZHANG Qiufen, LYU Xizhi, WANG Shuai, NI Yongxin, WANG Jianwei, ZHANG Hengshuo, MA Li. Trends and influencing factors of water-sediment variation in the semiarid reaches of the Yellow River’s “Ji Zi Bend”[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 2031-2043.

Figures/Tables 18

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References 27

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水文站	控制面积/km²		年均值		数据年限
水文站	控制面积/km²	径流/10⁸ m³	输沙量/10⁸ t	降水量/mm	数据年限
图格日格	1036	0.12	0.04	276.90	1982—2020年
龙头拐	1157	0.26	0.04	279.80	1964—2020年
皇甫	3175	0.99	0.31	360.70	1964—2020年

	年均径流量/10⁴ m³			年均输沙量/10⁴ t
	毛不拉孔兑	西柳沟	皇甫川	毛不拉孔兑	西柳沟	皇甫川
1964—1970年		2982.29	16922.86		401.38	5727.43
1971—1980年		3527.60	16885.00		440.66	5749.00
1981—1990年	2032.89	2532.20	12523.00	1052.18	669.60	4362.20
1991—2000年	1905.49	3256.60	8594.00	365.08	402.25	2506.70
2001—2010年	708.43	2005.09	3370.70	211.64	131.46	881.40
2011—2020年	323.97	1457.84	2925.90	12.29	54.23	349.83
最大值	8785.00	8562.00	43700.00	7158.67	4761.94	15400.00
最小值	49.01	568.40	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00
多年平均	1222.43	2608.41	9849.93	393.84	353.41	3133.04
C_v	1.35	0.72	0.92	2.99	2.01	1.16

流域	序列	Z值	趋势性
毛不拉孔兑	径流	-3.24	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
毛不拉孔兑	输沙	-3.90	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
西柳沟	径流	-4.06	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
西柳沟	输沙	-3.77	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
皇甫川	径流	-5.76	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
皇甫川	输沙	-5.77	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著

站名	径流量/10⁴ m³			输沙量/10⁴ t
站名	6—9月	7—8月	C_v	6—9月	7—8月	C_v
毛不拉孔兑	86.1	78.4	5.99	99.8	97.1	9.11
西柳沟	66.8	53.8	3.69	99.4	91.3	7.10
皇甫川	85.0	72.7	5.41	98.7	90.1	6.87

	流域	Z值	趋势性
气温	毛不拉孔兑	6.68	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
	西柳沟	6.52	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
	皇甫川	6.31	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
降水	毛不拉孔兑	-2.37	Z<0，\|Z\|>1.96，下降趋势显著
	西柳沟	2.09	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
	皇甫川	0.39	Z>0，\|Z\|<1.96，增加趋势不显著

Trends and influencing factors of water-sediment variation in the semiarid reaches of the Yellow River’s “Ji Zi Bend”

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流域	Z值	趋势性
毛不拉孔兑	4.06	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
西柳沟	3.67	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著
皇甫川	5.03	Z>0，\|Z\|>1.96，增加趋势显著

流域	时段	实测值/10⁸ m³	计算值/10⁸ m³	实测径流量变化		降水影响		非降水影响
流域	时段	实测值/10⁸ m³	计算值/10⁸ m³	变化量/10⁸ m³	占比/%	变化量/10⁸ m³	占比/%	变化量/10⁸ m³	占比/%
毛不拉孔兑	MP₁	0.114	0.114
	MP₂	0.219	0.148	0.105	92.1	0.034	32.4	0.071	67.6
	MP₃	0.050	0.126	-0.064	-56.1	0.012	-18.8	-0.076	118.8
西柳沟	XP₁	0.311	0.311
西柳沟	XP₂	0.187	0.352	-0.124	-39.9	0.041	-33.1	-0.165	133.1
皇甫川	HP₁	1.432	1.432
皇甫川	HP₂	0.412	1.347	-1.020	-71.2	-0.085	8.3	-0.935	91.7

流域	时段	实测值/10⁸ t	计算值/10⁸ t	实测输沙量变化		降水影响		非降水影响
流域	时段	实测值/10⁸ t	计算值/10⁸ t	变化量/10⁸ t	占比/%	变化量/10⁸ t	占比/%	变化量/10⁸ t	占比/%
毛不拉孔兑	MP₁	0.031	0.031
	MP₂	0.079	0.039	0.048	154.8	0.008	16.7	0.04	83.3
	MP₃	0.012	0.033	-0.019	-61.3	0.002	-10.5	-0.021	110.5
西柳沟	XP₃	0.036	0.036
	XP₄	0.080	0.048	0.044	122.2	0.012	27.3	0.032	72.7
	XP₅	0.015	0.044	-0.021	-58.3	0.008	-38.1	-0.029	138.1
皇甫川	HP₁	0.480	0.480
皇甫川	HP₂	0.099	0.462	-0.381	-79.4	-0.018	4.7	-0.363	95.3

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	年均降水量/mm
	毛不拉孔兑	西柳沟	皇甫川
1964—1970年	310.4	265.2	380.8
1971—1980年	299.1	242.1	410.9
1981—1990年	276.7	247.2	312.2
1991—2000年	280.3	317.7	371.4
2001—2010年	272.2	308.1	352.1
2011—2020年	233.0	294.1	337.0
最大值	429.6	471.4	851.0
最小值	142.4	113.0	174.2
多年平均	276.9	279.8	339.5
C_v	0.3	0.3	0.4