河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性时空格局演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.12

Abstract

Abstract:

Given oasis degradation and increased human activities in the arid northwest region, quantifying the resilience of the oasis socioecological system in the Hexi Corridor and uncovering its spatio-temporal differentiation patterns have become critical issues in ecological security research for arid areas. This study developed a resilience assessment index system and conducted a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of resilience within the oasis system in the Hexi Corridor from 2015 to 2023, utilizing the entropy method alongside other relevant approaches. The findings indicate that (1) the resilience of the socioeconomic and resource management subsystems generally increased, rising from 0.36 to 0.46 and from 0.38 to 0.69, respectively. By contrast, the resilience of the ecological state subsystem initially increased, reaching 0.70 in 2021, but then declined to 0.60 in 2023, down from 0.40 in 2015; (2) overall system resilience remained stable but at a relatively low level, with an average score of 0.35; (3) the Theil index across the five cities in the region exhibited an upward trend, with the overall index rising from 0.18 to 0.64. However, it decreased from 0.24 to 0.13 between 2016 and 2017 and from 0.27 to 0.13 between 2018 and 2019; (4) the system’s kernel density curve demonstrated a tailing feature, evolving from a “single peak” to a “multipeak” pattern. Finally, the study proposed countermeasures and suggestions focusing on three areas: developing a spatially differentiated intelligent water resource management platform, implementing precise early warning systems, and enacting differentiated regulatory measures.

Key words: Hexi Corridor, oasis, social-ecological system, resilience, spatio-temporal pattern, evolution characteristics

LI Ji, WANG Jing. Evolutionary characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of resilience in oasis social-ecological systems in the Hexi Corridor[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1887-1898.

Figures/Tables 10

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目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	单位	属性	指标层权重
河西走廊绿洲社会-生态系统韧性	社会经济子系统	0.36	人均GDP	元	+	0.18
			农村居民人均可支配收入	元	+	0.04
			工业增长率	%	-	0.04
			人口自然增长率	%	+	0.04
			城镇化率	%	+	0.06
	生态状况子系统	0.24	森林覆盖率	%	+	0.07
			城市空气质量优良天数	d	+	0.04
			年平均降水量	mm	+	0.06
			荒漠化土地面积	10⁴ km²	-	0.04
			水土流失指数	Sc	-	0.03
	资源管理子系统	0.40	人均水资源占有量	m³	+	0.15
			生态用水量	10⁸ m³	+	0.05
			城市建成区绿地率	%	+	0.02
			人工造林面积	hm²	+	0.09
			饮用水水质达标率	%	+	0.01
			粮食总产量	10⁴ t	+	0.08

方法	结果	一致性表现
熵值法	确定系统韧性评估指标权重	计算结果为TOPSIS提供权重依据，评估中协同作用，构成韧性评估的量化基础
TOPSIS法	酒泉韧性最高（C_i 0.42~0.47）	核密度分析显示酒泉峰值最高（0.50），Theil显示其区域差异贡献度达38%
核密度分析	曲线出现拖尾状态，且由“单峰”逐渐向“多峰”转变	5市系统韧性逐渐上升，但嘉峪关韧性上升更快且核密度曲线分布更集中（0.30~0.40）
Theil指数	绿洲及5市Theil指数呈上升趋势，2015—2023年总 Theil指数从0.18增至0.64，区域差异呈显著扩大趋势， 2016—2017年和2018—2019年Theil指数下降	Theil指数上升表明区域间各市韧性差异扩大，与核密度分析中出现多峰或拖尾现象相一致。同时，Theil指数下降阶段（2016—2017年和2018—2019年）对应核密度分析中韧性指数分布更均匀时期

Evolutionary characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of resilience in oasis social-ecological systems in the Hexi Corridor

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城市	年份	城市生态系统韧性	贴近度值（C_i)
武威	2023	0.40	0.34
	2022	0.30	0.31
	2021	0.40	0.36
	2020	0.40	0.32
	2019	0.40	0.35
	2018	0.40	0.33
	2017	0.40	0.32
	2016	0.30	0.31
	2015	0.30	0.29
张掖	2023	0.50	0.39
	2022	0.40	0.37
	2021	0.40	0.34
	2020	0.30	0.32
	2019	0.40	0.35
	2018	0.40	0.36
	2017	0.40	0.33
	2016	0.30	0.33
	2015	0.30	0.31
酒泉	2023	0.40	0.44
	2022	0.50	0.46
	2021	0.50	0.47
	2020	0.40	0.44
	2019	0.40	0.43
	2018	0.40	0.43
	2017	0.40	0.42
	2016	0.40	0.43
	2015	0.40	0.42
金昌	2023	0.20	0.23
	2022	0.30	0.26
	2021	0.30	0.24
	2020	0.30	0.26
	2019	0.30	0.25
	2018	0.30	0.24
	2017	0.20	0.21
	2016	0.30	0.22
	2015	0.30	0.26
嘉峪关	2023	0.30	0.24
	2022	0.30	0.26
	2021	0.30	0.26
	2020	0.30	0.26
	2019	0.30	0.28
	2018	0.40	0.33
	2017	0.30	0.30
	2016	0.30	0.24
	2015	0.40	0.47

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