汾河流域生态系统服务供需风险量化评估及其影响阈值

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Revealing the supply-demand risks of ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms is of reference value for supporting the ecological protection and high-quality development. This study developed formulas for supply-demand matching and risk assessment, employing the InVEST model, Extreme Gradient Boosting trees, and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and water yield supply-demand matching from 2000 to 2020, as well as the threshold characteristics of factors influencing supply-demand risks. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply and demand levels of carbon sequestration and soil conservation continuously increased. The temporal trend of water yield supply was relatively complex but increased significantly in 2020, while the demand for water yield generally showed an increasing trend. Carbon sequestration and water yield demand displayed higher values in the Fenhe river valley and lower values in surrounding mountainous areas, whereas carbon sequestration supply, soil conservation supply and demand exhibited inverse spatial patterns. (2) Carbon sequestration were all in the supply-demand risk zone, while soil conservation exhibited a mixed pattern of high, medium, and low-risk areas. Among them, Linfen region faced the greatest supply-demand risks of carbon sequestration and soil conservation, with the proportion of medium-high risk zones accounting for 21.73% and 18.14% of the basin area respectively. The Fenhe River Basin was mainly in the supply-demand safety zone for water yield, with only Taiyuan and Yuncheng region having relatively high proportion of high-risk zones, accounting for only 6.74%, with high risk areas mainly located in the Taiyuan and Yuncheng regions. (3) Population density and GDP nearly linearly intensified carbon sequestration risks. Annual average temperature exhibited a critical threshold of 10 ℃, beyond which risks were escalated. Soil conservation risks were increased with cropland and grassland coverage, while slope gradient(11°) and precipitation (600 mm) served as inflection points: risks rose rapidly below these thresholds but stabilized above them. Water yield risks were decreased with precipitation and grassland coverage but increased with GDP and population density. With 7 ℃ and 12 ℃ as thresholds, the impact of mean annual temperature on water yield supply-demand risk was characterized by three stages: mild promotion, no impact, and strong promotion. Thus, ecological restoration, economic development, and precipitation changes have collectively driven the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services supply, demand, and associated risks. The supply-demand risk index developed in this study offers practical value for managing ecosystem service supply-demand dynamics.

Key words: ecosystem services supply and demand, spatiotemporal characteristics, machine learning, threshold, Fenhe River Basin

DUAN Baoling, FENG Qiang, WANG Jing, ZHANG Wei. The supply-demand risks of ecosystem services and threshold characteristics of their influencing factors in Fenhe River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(9): 1726-1741.

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服务类型	地市	高风险区	中风险区	低风险区	安全区
固碳	太原市	4.62(28.87)	4.25(26.54)	7.14(44.59)	0.00(0.00)
	忻州市	0.00(0.00)	0.12(1.36)	8.63(98.64)	0.00(0.00)
	吕梁市	4.45(23.75)	8.41(44.89)	5.88(31.36)	0.00(0.00)
	晋中市	6.80(29.18)	10.39(44.6)	6.11(26.22)	0.00(0.00)
	运城市	5.45(74.76)	1.84(25.24)	0.00(0.00)	0.00(0.00)
	临汾市	11.52(44.45)	10.21(39.41)	4.18(16.14)	0.00(0.00)
土壤保持	太原市	3.35(20.90)	5.39(33.66)	5.96(37.23)	1.32(8.21)
	忻州市	3.20(36.62)	3.57(40.83)	1.82(20.77)	0.16(1.78)
	吕梁市	2.11(11.28)	6.00(32.00)	8.95(47.79)	1.67(8.93)
	晋中市	8.16(35.03)	6.99(29.98)	6.40(27.46)	1.75(7.53)
	运城市	1.61(22.04)	2.30(31.52)	1.92(26.36)	1.46(20.08)
	临汾市	10.70(41.29)	7.44(28.72)	5.51(21.25)	2.26(8.74)
产水	太原市	4.35(27.13)	3.20(19.99)	2.53(15.82)	5.94(37.06)
	忻州市	0.00(0.00)	0.05(0.61)	0.42(4.76)	8.28(94.63)
	吕梁市	0.07(0.39)	0.04(0.21)	0.85(4.54)	17.77(94.86)
	晋中市	0.11(0.49)	0.49(2.11)	2.15(9.24)	20.54(88.16)
	运城市	2.39(32.74)	2.46(33.69)	0.37(5.12)	2.07(28.45)
	临汾市	0.17(0.64)	1.17(4.52)	1.09(4.20)	23.49(90.64)

The supply-demand risks of ecosystem services and threshold characteristics of their influencing factors in Fenhe River Basin

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