基于情景模拟的流域低碳土地利用格局优化研究——以汾河流域为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.02.05

Abstract

Abstract:

Carrying out the optimal allocation of land use is aimed at promoting the scientific use of regional land resources and achieving carbon emission reduction targets. In this paper, the Fenhe River Basin is taken as the research area. Based on the data on land use and resistance factors in 2015 and 2020, the FLUS-MCR model and the carbon budget coefficient method are used to verify the accuracy of the model. Five simulation scenarios, such as low-carbon development priority, economic development priority, cultivated land protection priority, ecological protection priority, and natural development in 2030, are set up to compare the layout characteristics of land use types under different scenarios in the future, and an optimized layout scheme is proposed. The results showed that: (1) In 2020, the areas of four land use functional zoning of the prohibited, restricted, key, and optimized development zones in Fenhe River Basin were 2491.76 km², 6445.99 km², 16325 km², and 14477 km², respectively. The net carbon emission of the basin is 2002.46 × 10⁴ t. The prohibited development zone is the carbon sink area of the basin, and the total carbon absorption is 0.76×10⁴ t. The remaining three areas are carbon source areas, and the total carbon emission is 2003.22 × 10⁴ t. (2) In 2030, the carbon balance of land use in each scenario from high to low is low-carbon development priority, ecological protection priority, cultivated land protection priority, natural development priority, and economic development priority. (3) In 2030, under different scenarios, in addition to the relatively reasonable land use structure of the prohibited development zone, the restricted development zone still needs to appropriately reduce the proportion of cultivated land and construction land in the area. To support the coordinated development of land use, production, living conditions, and ecological functions and to accomplish low-carbon land use goals, the key and optimal development zones should take arable grassland development into consideration.

Key words: low-carbon land use, optimize configuration, FLUS-MCR model, carbon budget coefficient, Fenhe River Basin, Shanxi

ZHANG Enyue,ZHENG Junyan,SU Yingqing,ZHANG Lei,ZHANG Pengfei,LIU Geng. Optimization of low-carbon land use pattern based on scenario simulation: A case study of Fenhe River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(2): 203-212.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 33

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数据类型	指标	数据来源
基础数据	山西省行政边界	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）2015年
阻力因子	土地利用/覆被	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）2015年、2020年（Landsat 8 30 m）
	高程/m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn） 2000年山西省DEM（SRTM 30 m）
	坡度/（°）	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn） 2000年山西省DEM（SRTM 30 m）
	土壤厚度/cm	国家地球系统科学数据中心—土壤分中心（http://soil.geodata.cn）中国高分辨率国家土壤信息格网基本属性数据集（2010—2018）1 km
	植被覆盖度/%	地理空间数据云（www.gscloud.cn） MOD13Q1数据集2020年 250 m
	年均气温/℃	WorldClim version 2.0（http://www.worldclim.org/） 2000年
	年均降水量/mm	WorldClim version 2.0（http://www.worldclim.org/） 2000年
	距道路距离/m	国家基础地理信息中心（www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/） 2015年1：1000000中国基础地理信息数据
	距水体距离/m	国家基础地理信息中心（www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/） 2015年1：1000000中国基础地理信息数据

情景类型	转换原则
低碳发展优先	结合《中国能源统计年鉴》、中国碳核算数据库（https://www.ceads.net.cn/data/）、《山西省统计年鉴》等省市统计年鉴历年研究区能源排放量变化趋势，并参照《山西省国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》，以最低增长量为目标，优先转换碳汇用地类型林地、水域、草地等
生态保护优先	基于《汾河流域生态修复规划（2015—2030年）》、《汾河流域生态景观规划（2020—2035）》等相关省市国土空间规划基础，纳入生态保护红线区域限制转换，按用地类型生态效益等级依次转换林地、水域、草地、其他
耕地保护优先	通过加入永久基本农田保护区为限制转化区，控制耕地向建设用地转移，除建设用地，加大其他用地类型转换为耕地的概率
自然发展	以2015—2020年土地利用变化速率及基准年驱动因子为源，不考虑政策规划限制，预测各地类未来规模
经济发展优先	基于《山西省国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》及历年建设用地等变化趋势，以最大增长量为目标，按低到高等级用地单向转换原则排序：建设用地、耕地、林地、草地、水域等，优先安排建设用地转换

阻力因子	阻力因子分级（生态/城镇源地）					权重
阻力因子	低阻力/ 高阻力	较低阻力/ 较高阻力	中等阻力/ 中等阻力	较高阻力/ 较低阻力	高阻力/ 低阻力	权重
高程/m	>1600	1200~1600	1000~1200	800~1000	<800	0.1412
坡度/（°）	>60	45~60	30~45	13~30	<13	0.1313
土地利用类型	林地、水域	草地	耕地	未利用地	建设用地	0.1540
土壤厚度/cm	>150	100~150	60~100	40~60	<40	0.0783
植被覆盖度/%	>80	60~80	40~60	20~40	0~20	0.1358
年均气温/℃	<4	4~7	7~9	9~11	>11	0.0632
年均降水量/mm	>548	515~548	483~515	447~483	0~447	0.0674
距道路距离/m	>138	88~138	51~88	17~51	0~17	0.1072
距水体距离/m	0~54	54~114	114~182	182~284	>284	0.1216

用地类型	碳收支系数	碳效应
耕地	0.37	碳源
林地	-0.49	碳汇
草地	-0.02	碳汇
水域	-0.46	碳汇
建设用地	65.30	碳源

Optimization of low-carbon land use pattern based on scenario simulation: A case study of Fenhe River Basin

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