基于FLUS模型的汾河流域生态空间多情景模拟预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.27

Abstract

Abstract:

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of watershed ecological space was conducted for the Fenhe River Basin to provide reference and guidance for the coordinated and sustainable development of watershed production-living-ecological space. An ecological-economic-social model was used with land use type data for 2015 and 2018, and 20 drivers were selected. The accuracy and effectiveness of the future land use simulation model was verified, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and drivers of ecological change in the Fenhe River Basin were simulated and predicted for 2024 and 2030 under four scenarios: production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority, and production-living-ecological space coordination. We found that the ecological space of the Fenhe River Basin presented two types of evolution trends from 2018 to 2030. It showed linear growth under the ecological space priority and production-living-ecological space coordination scenarios, with increases of 5.92% and 5.13%, respectively, while there was a linear decrease under the production space priority and living space priority scenarios, with decreases of 9.40% and 2.20%, respectively, and the proportion of production space, living space, and ecological space land structure maintained a ratio of 4:1:5. In the spatiotemporal pattern, the ecological space was located in the marginal mountainous area of the watershed, and the production space and living space were located in the core basin. The ecological space, production space, and living space as a whole present successively nested pattern characteristics. The range of change in the core area of the ecological space was small, and the change in the marginal area was significant. The evolution trend of ecological space under the production-living-ecological space coordination scenario and ecological space priority scenario was similar in 2024 and 2030. Affected by the natural-social development trend of the watershed and national policies, the available reserve land resources are predicted to be limited in the future, and the ecological space change of the watershed is predicted to be small, but there are also hidden threats. Therefore, we suggest strictly following the basic principles of three lines, the permanent basic farmland protection red line, ecological protection red line, and urban development boundary line, reasonably planning the reserve land resources of the production-living-ecological space, actively governing and conserving the ecological space edge areas (ecologically sensitive areas), restricting the development of core areas, and promoting the scientific development of watersheds.

Key words: ecological space, multi-scenario simulation, FLUS model, Fenhe River Basin, Shanxi

SU Yingqing,LIU Geng,ZHAO Jingbo,NIU Junjie,ZHANG Enyue,GUO Ligang,LIN Fei. Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(4): 1152-1161.

Figures/Tables 10

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数据类型		指标	数据来源
基础数据	行政边界	山西省行政边界	2015年中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心(http://www.resdc.cn)
基础数据	土地利用	山西省土地利用数据	2015年、2018年中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心 (http://www.resdc.cn)(Landsat TM/ETM 30 m)
EES驱动因子	经济因子	经济密度/(10⁴元∙km^-2)	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》
		GDP增长率/%
		环保投资占GDP比例/%
	环境因子	高程/m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心(http://www.resdc.cn) 2000年山西省DEM30m(SRTM 30 m)
		坡度/(°)
		距河流/m
		人均水资源量/(人∙m^-3)	2015年、2018年《山西省水资源公报》
		土壤养分有效性^*	Har monized World Soil Database v 1.2(http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Research)2008年
		土壤根系氧利用率^*
		土壤过盐量^*
		土壤毒性^*
		土壤可利用度^*
		年均降水/mm	WorldClim version 2.0(http://www.worldclim.org/)2000年
		年均气温/℃	WorldClim version 2.0(http://www.worldclim.org/)2000年
		水土协调度/%	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》《山西省水资源公报》
	社会因子	人口自然增长率/‰	2015年、2018年《山西省统计年鉴》
		人口密度/(人∙km^-2)
		城市化率/%
		距主要交通干线/m	国家基础地理信息中心(www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/) 2015年1:1000000中国基础地理信息数据
		距主要居民点/m	国家基础地理信息中心(www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/) 2015年1:1000000中国基础地理信息数据

情景类型	转化成本及原则
生产空间优先	除建设用地,其他用地类型均可转换为耕地
生活空间优先	根据城市发展需求,按低等级用地到高等级单向转换原则,土地转换等级排序为:建设用地、耕地、林地、草地、水域及未利用土地
生态空间优先	同生活空间优先情景转换原则,各类用地的生态效益等级排序:林地、水域、草地、其他
三生空间协调	综合以上3种单一情景的发展需求,土地转换等级排序为:建设、林地、耕地、水域、草地及未利用土地

年份	情景	生产空间		生活空间		生态空间
年份	情景	耕地面积 /km²	占比/%	建设用地面积/km²	占比/%	林地面积 /km²	草地面积 /km²	水域面积 /km²	未利用地面积/km²	小计/km²	占比/%
2018	三生空间现状	15361.83	40.55	3132.99	8.27	10039.18	9042.80	302.18	4.81	19388.97	51.18
2024	生产空间优先	16126.38	42.58	3164.64	8.36	10155.47	8075.53	347.86	1.65	18580.50	49.06
	生活空间优先	14431.00	38.10	4225.55	11.16	10031.08	8839.96	342.16	1.27	19214.47	50.74
	生态空间优先	14371.78	37.95	3142.24	8.30	10178.88	9828.74	348.24	2.02	20357.88	53.75
	三生空间协调	14372.41	37.95	3233.22	8.54	9913.02	10004.89	346.21	1.90	20266.01	53.51
2030	生产空间优先	16272.16	42.96	3879.08	10.24	10243.41	7125.21	351.15	2.76	17722.53	46.80
	生活空间优先	13623.93	35.97	5276.97	13.93	10113.84	8514.24	342.16	1.27	18971.51	50.10
	生态空间优先	13445.25	35.50	3898.19	10.29	10317.82	9857.47	352.16	1.14	20528.59	54.21
	三生空间协调	13448.42	35.51	4045.86	10.68	9875.81	10152.18	348.74	0.76	20377.49	53.81

Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model

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