近25 a来甘肃省耕地资源时空变化及其影响因子

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.29

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying the temporal and spatial changes and driving factors of cultivated land resources have important practical significance for improving regional food security, strictly cultivated land protection red lines, and formulating cultivated land protection policies and measures. Based on the land use data of Gansu Province in 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2020, with the support of ArcGIS and GeoDa. This paper comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land resources in Gansu Province in the recent 25 years from the grid, reseau, and county scale using geographic detectors to detect the main driving factors causing cultivated land changes. The results showed that (1) the cultivated land in Gansu Province was 1.6% from 1995 to 2020, increasing from 1995 to 2005 and decreasing from 2005 to 2020. The cultivated land mainly flowed to grassland, forest, and construction land, while the unused land mainly moved to cultivated land and grassland. (2) The spatial distribution of cultivated land showed the typical characteristics of “more in the southeast and less in the northwest.” (3) The spatial distribution of cultivated land was influenced by the interaction of natural and socio-economic factors. The interaction between population and land development intensity was the main reason for the difference in the spatial distribution of cultivated land in Gansu Province in 1995, 2005, and 2015. However, the interaction between temperature and precipitation has become the dominant factor affecting cultivated land in 2020. Findings from this study can serve as a scientific basis for the protection and management of cultivated land in Gansu Province.

Key words: land use, cultivated land, spatio-temporal evolution, driving factors, Gansu Province

HOU Qingqing,CHEN Ying,PEI Tingting,JI Zhenxia,XIE Baopeng. Analysis of cultivated land’s spatio-temporal changes and influencing factors in Gansu Province in recent 25 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 955-967.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 46

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土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	1995年总计	年净增长面积
耕地	36093.75	2865.50	22104.25	531.50	1915.00	1533.75	65043.75	39.25
林地	2731.00	22246.50	11534.25	114.75	133.75	804.25	37564.50	61.45
草地	22102.75	11949.50	92764.75	642.00	738.75	14749.50	142947.25	-20.03
水域	580.25	86.75	629.25	1205.75	59.75	832.00	3393.75	-5.05
建设用地	1705.75	108.75	703.50	54.50	741.00	113.50	3427.00	32.80
未利用地	2222.75	922.00	15011.00	794.75	166.75	152572.25	171689.50	-108.43
2005年总计	65436.25	38179.00	142747.00	3343.25	3755.00	170605.25	424065.75	0.00

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	2005年总计	年净增长面积
耕地	33352.25	3235.00	23833.25	604.00	2552.75	1864.75	65436.25	-96.85
林地	3025.25	20947.25	12967.75	142.00	220.50	922.75	38179.00	12.95
草地	22717.00	12926.50	88461.75	754.25	1330.50	16541.75	142747.00	30.67
水域	564.50	98.75	707.75	1092.75	81.75	800.50	3343.25	29.60
建设用地	1788.50	135.00	863.00	79.00	745.50	144.25	3755.00	119.10
未利用地	2536.00	1030.75	16373.50	1115.25	610.50	148939.25	170605.25	-92.80
2020年总计	63983.50	38373.25	143207.00	3787.25	5541.50	169213.25	424065.75	0.00

驱动因子	分级	1995年		2005年		2015年		2020年
驱动因子	分级	q值	P值	q值	P值	q值	P值	q值	P值
人口（X1）	6	0.45	0	0.16	0	0.41	0	0.39	0
GDP（X2）	6	0.29	0	0.14	0	0.38	0	0.38	0
土地开发强度（X3）	6	0.42	0	0.17	0	0.40	0	0.07	0
降水（X4）	6	0.37	0	0.10	0	0.26	0	0.36	0
温度（X5）	6	0.14	0	0.05	0	0.12	0	0.13	0
坡度（X6）	6	0.01	0	0.01	0	0.01	0	0.01	0

		人口（X1）	GDP（X2）	土地开发强度（X3）	降水（X4）	温度（X5）	坡度（X6）
1995年	人口（X1）	0.45
	GDP（X2）	0.51	0.29
	土地开发强度（X3）	0.61	0.53	0.42
	降水（X4）	0.52	0.46	0.58	0.37
	温度（X5）	0.50	0.41	0.48	0.54	0.14
	坡度（X6）	0.46	0.30	0.43	0.39	0.16	0.01
2005年	人口（X1）	0.16
	GDP（X2）	0.21	0.14
	土地开发强度（X3）	0.24	0.24	0.17
	降水（X4）	0.19	0.18	0.22	0.10
	温度（X5）	0.19	0.17	0.19	0.19	0.05
	坡度（X6）	0.17	0.15	0.18	0.12	0.06	0.01
2015年	人口（X1）	0.40
	GDP（X2）	0.49	0.38
	土地开发强度（X3）	0.57	0.58	0.40
	降水（X4）	0.47	0.48	0.51	0.26
	温度（X5）	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.52	0.12
	坡度（X6）	0.41	0.39	0.41	0.28	0.14	0.01
2020年	人口（X1）	0.39
	GDP（X2）	0.48	0.38
	土地开发强度（X3）	0.41	0.41	0.07
	降水（X4）	0.47	0.46	0.38	0.36
	温度（X5）	0.45	0.45	0.22	0.52	0.13
	坡度（X6）	0.39	0.39	0.08	0.37	0.15	0.01

Analysis of cultivated land’s spatio-temporal changes and influencing factors in Gansu Province in recent 25 years

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