1995—2020年新疆巴里坤湖面积时序变化及归因

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

巴里坤湖是天山东部山间内陆封闭型湖泊,了解巴里坤湖的演变特征对于开展湖泊保护与生态环境治理具有重要意义。利用308景Landsat系列和Sentinel 2遥感影像提取1995—2020年湖泊水面的时间序列,并结合巴里坤气象站资料以及从遥感影像上提取的耕地面积数据,分析湖泊在气候变化与人类活动影响下的变化趋势。结果表明：湖泊变化经历了2个阶段：1995—2006年萎缩,从年均值57.33 km²下降到35.53 km²,下降速率1.98 km²·a^-1,萎缩35.79%;2006—2020年扩张,从年均值35.53 km²上升到46.59 km²,上升速率0.79 km²·a^-1,扩张31.12%。多年湖泊面积的月变化统计表明：湖泊在5月达到最大值（73.09±21.01）km²,11月达到最小值（43.90±16.97）km²。影响因素：1995—2006年,降水变化幅度较小,农业用水与蒸发量增加是巴里坤湖萎缩的主要原因;2006年后,巴里坤县出台多种湿地保护措施,耕地面积扩张趋势得到控制,降水显著增加与蒸发量减少成为湖泊面积扩张的主要原因。

关键词: 巴里坤湖, 湖面变化, 遥感, 影响因素, 新疆

Abstract:

Barkol Lake is a closed inland lake in the eastern part of the Tianshan Mountains. Its evolutionary characteristics should be elucidated to develop lake protection and manage its ecological environment. In this study, 308 Landsat series and Sentinel 2 remote sensing images were used to extract the time series of the lake water surface from 1995 to 2020. Data from Barkol Meteorological Station were combined with the cultivated land area data extracted from remote sensing images to analyze the trend of changes in the lake under the influence of climate change and human activities through time series analysis, correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and abrupt change test method. Results show that changes in the had two stages. In 1995-2006, the annual mean decreased from 57.33 km² to 35.53 km² at a decreasing rate of 1.98 km²·a^-1, thereby shrinking by 35.79%. In 2006-2020, the annual mean increased from 35.53 km² to 46.59 km² at an increasing rate of 0.79 km²·a^-1 and an expansion rate of 31.12%. The lake expanded and shrank mainly in the east and north of the lake. Statistical analysis on monthly changes in the lake area for many years revealed that the lake reached the maximum value of (73.09±21.01) km² in May and the minimum value of (43.90±16.97) km² in November. The seasonal variation in the year when the lake water crossed the dam was higher than that in the year when it did not cross the dam. As for the influencing factors, in 1995-2006, precipitation slightly changed. The shrinking of Barkol Lake was mainly attributed to the increase in evaporation and agricultural water use. After 2006, Barkol Kazakh Autonomous County introduced various wetland protection measures, and the expansion trend of the cultivated land area was controlled. Consequently, the significant increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation became the main reasons for the expansion of the lake area.

Key words: Barkol Lake, lake area change, remote sensing, influencing factors, Xinjiang

王振,李均力,包安明,张久丹,白洁. 1995—2020年新疆巴里坤湖面积时序变化及归因[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(6): 1514-1523.

WANG Zhen,LI Junli,BAO Anming,ZHANG Jiudan,BAI Jie. Temporal variation in the Barkol Lake area and its driving factors in 1995-2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1514-1523.

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参数	时段	降水	温度	蒸发量	耕地面积
Pearson相关系数	1995—2020年	0.373	-0.135	-0.659^**	-0.102
	1995—2006年	0.184	-0.513	-0.726^**	-0.744^**
	2007—2020年	0.529^*	-0.139	-0.836^**	0.461