西藏地区潜在蒸散量时空格局特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1981—2018年西藏地区38个气象站点的逐日气象观测资料,采用联合国粮农组织Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations（FAO）推荐的Penman-Monteith公式估算了各站点的潜在蒸散量（ET₀）,分别从趋势性、突变性以及周期性分析了ET₀的时空变化格局及其影响因素。结果表明：在时间尺度上,西藏地区ET₀均表现出先“下降”后“升高”的趋势,其中“下降”阶段ET₀整体呈显著的降低趋势（除冬季外）,“升高”阶段呈显著的增加趋势（除春、夏季）。在空间尺度上,春、夏季表现出减少和秋冬季、年际表现出增加的趋势。发生突变的站点主要分布在中南部和东北部区域,时间集中在20世纪80年代;年均ET₀变化的第一主周期为33 a（2013年）。此外,平均风速和相对湿度是影响年及季节ET₀的主要因素,同时平均风速、相对湿度和最高温度对ET₀的影响趋势具有很强的一致性。

关键词: 西藏, 潜在蒸散量, 趋势性, 偏相关, 影响因素

Abstract:

This study estimated potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) from 38 meteorological stations in Tibet. We collected the data from daily observations from 1981 to 2018 and analyzed it using the FAO’s Penman-Monteith formula. The temporal and spatial patterns of ET₀ and its influencing factors were analyzed separately from trend, sudden change, and periodicity. This study showed that within the time frame, ET₀ in Tibet decreased and then increased, and there was a significant decrease (except winter) and increase (except spring and summer). Spatially, there was a significant decrease during spring and summer, while in autumn, winter, and interannual, there was a significant increase. The mutation sites were mainly in the South-Central and North Eastern regions, and the time concentration was in the 1980s. The first major cycle of annual average ET₀ change may be 33 a(2013 year). Also, average wind speed and relative humidity were the dominant ET₀factors in the years and seasons. Simultaneously, the influence trend of average wind speed, relative humidity, and maximum temperature on ET₀ was consistent.

Key words: Tibet, potential evapotranspiration, tendency, partial correlation, influencing factors

史继清,豆永丽,杨霏云,戴睿,胡军. 西藏地区潜在蒸散量时空格局特征及影响因素研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3): 724-732.

SHI Jiqing,DOU Yongli,YANG Feiyun,DAI Rui,HU Jun. Temporal and spatial pattern characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in Tibet and its influencing factors[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 724-732.

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插值方法	误差方法	误差结果
Kriging	RMSE	6.27
	MAPE	43.79
	MRE	0.34
IDW	RMSE	7.49
	MAPE	49.13
	MRE	0.44
Spline	RMSE	7.69
	MAPE	52.97
	MRE	0.85

气象要素	时间尺度
气象要素	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年际
WS	0.797^**	0.821^**	0.813^**	0.791^**	0.754^**
RH	-0.700^**	-0.708^**	-0.709^**	-0.558^**	-0.605^**
T_max	0.239^**	0.212^**	0.217^**	0.254^**	0.187^**
T_min	0.094^**	0.115^**	0.053	0.021	0.041
T_ave	0.058	0.033	0.046	0.125^**	0.061
SD	0.018	0.048	0.035	0.037	0.099^**