疏勒河流域降水变化特征研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于疏勒河流域5个水文站1956—2020年逐年及其各月降水数据作为基础资料，采用线性倾向、滑动平均、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法，对疏勒河流域降水量年际变化过程及其突变性、趋势性、周期性、持续性及不均匀性和集中度等变化特征进行研究。结果表明：疏勒河流域各站点年降水量呈现不同程度的增加趋势，并且各站点降水量分别呈现不同程度的突变性特征，整个流域近60 a降水在时间尺度上呈现出较不均匀分布，在空间尺度上呈现上游降水多、下游降水少的特性。其中，昌马堡站和党城湾站年降水量增长趋势明显，潘家庄站、双塔堡水库站和党河水库站增长趋势不明显。分析表明，未来一段时间内，流域降水将继续呈现增长趋势。

关键词: 疏勒河, 降水, Mann-Kendall检验法, 趋势性, 周期性, R/S分析法

Abstract:

The annual and monthly precipitation data from five hydrological stations in the Shule River Basin from 1956 to 2020, were analyzed using linear tendency, sliding average, cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, and other methods. The interannual variation process for precipitation in the Shule River Basin and its variation characteristics, such as mutability, trend, periodicity, persistence, heterogeneity, and concentration, were evaluated. The results show that the annual precipitation at each station in the Shule River Basin showed different increasing trends, and the precipitation at each station showed different mutation characteristics. Over the previous 60 years, precipitation in the entire basin presents a relatively uneven distribution on the time scale, and the precipitation in the upstream area is more than that in the downstream. Specifically, the annual precipitation at Changmabao and Dangchengwan stations showed obvious increasing trends, while the increasing trend at Panjiazhuang station and Shuangtabao and Danghe reservoir stations was not obvious. The analysis indicates that precipitation in the basin will continue to show an increasing trend in the coming period.

Key words: Shule River, precipitation, Mann-Kendall test, trendiness, periodicity, R/S analysis method

季宗虎, 孙栋元, 牛最荣, 王兴繁, 武兰珍, 马亚丽, 陈彩苹, 崔艳强. 疏勒河流域降水变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(10): 1583-1594.

JI Zonghu, SUN Dongyuan, NIU Zuirong, WANG Xingfan, WU Lanzhen, MA Yali, CHEN Caiping, CUI Yanqiang. Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1583-1594.

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特征值	平均降水量/mm	最大值/mm	最小值/mm	极值差/mm	极值差比
昌马堡	96.4	184.6（2007年）	35.4（1956年）	149.2	5.21
潘家庄	51.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	127.1	7.45
双塔堡水库	52.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	123.5	8.02
党城湾	61.3	298.1（2019年）	17.6（1960年）	280.5	16.93
党河水库	51.8	141.1（1979年）	16.5（1960年）	124.6	8.55

指标	线性回归	Sen’s	M-K检验Z值	趋势	明显程度
昌马堡	0.505	0.558	2.75	上升	明显
潘家庄	0.069	0.055	0.32	上升	不明显
双塔堡水库	0.111	0.087	0.67	上升	不明显
党城湾	0.923	0.354	2.24	上升	明显
党河水库	0.056	0.371	0.27	上升	不明显

	昌马堡	潘家庄	双塔堡水库	党城湾	党河水库
Hurst指数	0.7169	0.7489	0.6980	0.7259	0.6984
拟合R²	0.9716	0.9568	0.9533	0.9655	0.9535

	波动范围		多年平均值		集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
昌马堡	0.37~0.87	0.32~0.7	0.67	0.53	32 a
潘家庄	0.19~0.89	0.33~0.72	0.58	0.53	32 a
双塔堡水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.54	0.53	29 a
党城湾	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.56	0.53	29 a
党河水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.55	0.53	28 a