冰雹天气的环境参量及预报模型

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.01.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1959—2021年内蒙古119个国家站的冰雹观测记录与ERA5再分析数据，对比分析冰雹与非冰雹层结、水汽、特殊温度层高度、垂直风切变及云微观物理量的差异，建立冰雹预报模型，为冰雹的潜势预报提供客观定量的依据。结果表明：冰雹、非冰雹K指数、假相当位温差、垂直风切变、比湿及云微观结构差异不显著。总指数（TT）>50 ℃，850 hPa与500 hPa温度差≥28.4 ℃，大气可降水量≤24 mm，-20 ℃层高度<7.05 km，-20 ℃距0 ℃高度≤3.15 km，以上环境参量阈值可以判别超过70%的冰雹样本，同时，反向条件能判别超过70%的非冰雹样本。基于环境参量的分析，采用Fisher判别方法，利用TT、850 hPa与500 hPa温度差、-20 ℃距0 ℃高度、大气可降水量建立冰雹预报模型，模型判别准确率超过80%。

关键词: 冰雹, 降水, 环境参量, 冰雹预报模型, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Based on the hail observation records of 119 national stations in Inner Mongolia and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1959 to 2021, the differences in layer formation, water vapor, typical temperature layer height, vertical wind shear, and cloud microphysical quantities between hail and nonhail were analyzed. A hail prediction model was established to provide an objective and quantitative basis for potential hail forecasting. The results revealed that the K-index, pseudo-equivalent temperature difference, vertical wind shear, specific humidity, rain water mixing ratio, snow water mixing ratio, ice water mixing ratio, and liquid water mixing ratio were not well distinguished between hail and nonhail. The total index was >50 °C, temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa was ≥28.4 °C, precipitable water vapor was ≤24 mm, height of -20 °C was <7.05 km, and the height of -20 °C to 0 °C was ≤3.15 km. The above environmental parameter thresholds were able to identify >70% of hail samples, and the reverse condition can identify >70% of nonhail samples. Based on the analysis of the environmental parameters of hail and nonhail samples, the Fisher discriminant method was used to establish a hail prediction model using the total index, temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, height of -20 °C to 0 °C, and precipitable water vapor. The accuracy of the model discrimination exceeded 80%.

Key words: hail, precipitation, environmental parameters, forecast model of hail, Inner Mongolia

衣娜娜, 苏立娟, 郑旭程, 辛悦, 蔡敏, 李慧, 靳雨晨. 冰雹天气的环境参量及预报模型[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(1): 13-23.

YI Nana, SU Lijuan, ZHENG Xucheng, XIN Yue, CAI Min, LI Hui, JIN Yuchen. Environmental parameters and forecast models of hail events[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 13-23.

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	测试集					验证集
	总样本数	正样本		负样本		总样本数	正样本		负样本
	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%
正样本	10066	7547	75.0	2519	25.0	317	311	98.1	6	1.9
负样本	7446	6079	81.6	1367	18.4	287	203	70.7	84	29.3

	测试集					验证集
	总样本数	正样本		负样本		总样本数	正样本		负样本
	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%	总样本数	个数	占比/%	个数	占比/%
正样本	10066	8449	83.9	1617	16.1	317	314	99.1	3	0.9
负样本	7446	5586	75.0	1860	25.0	287	175	61.0	112	39.0