干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.

• 气候及气候变化 •    下一篇

近50 a中国降水变化的准周期性特征及未来的变化趋势

王澄海,李健,李小兰,许晓光   

  1. 兰州大学 大气科学学院 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-18 修回日期:2011-07-28 出版日期:2012-01-15 发布日期:2012-02-27
  • 作者简介:王澄海（1961-），男，甘肃秦安人，教授，主要从事陆面过程和气候变化研究. Email: wch@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(41071028)；气象行业专项（GYHY201006023）资助

Analysis on Quasiperiodic Characteristics of Precipitation in Recent 50 Years and Trend in Next 20 Years in China

WANG Cheng-hai，LI Jian，LI Xiao-lan，XU Xiao-guang   

  1. Key Laboratory of Semiarid Climate Change of Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2011-05-18 Revised:2011-07-28 Online:2012-01-15 Published:2012-02-27

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摘要： 通过分区分析了1961-2006年近50 a中国降水周期分量的年际变化特征,并对未来20 a（2006-2026年）降水的可能变化趋势做了预测。结果表明：就年际变化而言，大部分气候区的降水年际变化存在着显著的周期变化,并以高频（准3～4 a）变化为主，且具有相对的稳定性。过去的50 a，各气候区的降水呈现出下降趋势。周期叠加外推的结果表明，未来20 a，除西部干旱（半干旱）区的降水会出现少许的增多外，其余各气候区的降水量会出现弱的减少趋势。

关键词: 气候区, 降水量, 变化周期, 小波分析, 降水预测, 中国

Abstract: In this paper, the periodic characteristics of annual precipitation in 8 climate regions in recent about 50 years from 1961 to 2006 were analyzed, and the annual precipitation in next 20 years from 2006 to 2026 was predicted. The results show that, at annual scale, there was a periodicity of the change of annual precipitation in most of the 8 climate regions, the highfrequency change (3-4 years) was dominant, and its stability was high. In the past 50 years, annual precipitation was in a decrease trend in most of the 8 climate regions except that in arid and semiarid regions in west China. In next 20 years, annual precipitation will be in a slight decrease trend in most of the 8 climate regions except in a slight increase trend in arid and semiarid regions in west China.

Key words: climate region, precipitation, change periodicity, wavelet analysis, precipitation prediction, China